Returning stars create betting value in Nations League

Several big players, including Kylian Mbappé and Marcus Rashford, are set to return to the international stage. Our international football expert, Daniele Fisichella, offers insights into betting on their respective nations. 

France, already strong without the Real Madrid striker, are favourites to beat Croatia. Does the same apply to Belgium with Thibaut Courtois, England with Rashford, and Germany with Leon Goretzka?

Back Mbappè to take centre stage

Didier Deschamps’ France are second favourites, with odds of 4.50, to win the Nations League, and there’s no doubt that Kylian Mbappé provides them with an edge. 

The Real Madrid star missed the last four internationals for France, during which Les Bleus won three out of four and topped their qualifying group. 

Following a disappointing Euro 2024, France, who captured the Nations League title in 2021, remained unbeaten in their last five games.

Mbappé is France’s third all-time top goalscorer with 48 goals, trailing Thierry Henry by three and Olivier Giroud by nine. His recent performances for France have been underwhelming, as he’s netted only twice in his last 11 appearances—once against Luxembourg in a friendly and from the penalty spot against Poland at the Euros. 

However, his goal average stands at 0.56 per match, placing him just behind Michel Platini’s record of 0.57 goals per game. Taking into account also his assists (35), Mbappé averages nearly a goal involvement per game (0.96).

After a challenging start to the season, Mbappé regained his form in 2025, scoring 17 goals in 20 matches across all competitions for Los Blancos. 

He has netted 31 times for his club this season, and if he maintains this rate, he could surpass his all-time record of 44 goals set last season with PSG.

Croatia are winless in three matches, presenting an opportunity for France in the first leg of their Nations League quarter-final. 

Deschamp’s men haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last four away matches, allowing Croatia a chance to get on the scoresheet. However, with their top striker back in action and Ousmane Dembélé in excellent form—scoring 24 goals since mid- December 2024—the visitors are likely to find the back of the net at least twice. 

Backing Mbappé to score or assist, with odds of 1.83, seems a promising opportunity.

Clean sheet’s king is back (…thanks to Garcia)

Thibaut Courtois (pictured below) last featured for Belgium in June 2023, when he controversially walked out ahead of a European Championship qualifier in Estonia. 

The Real Madrid goalkeeper admitted to experiencing a breakdown in his relationship with former coach Domenico Tedesco, who has since been replaced by Rudi Garcia.

However not everyone appears pleased about the comeback of the two-time Champions League winner. Koen Casteels, who has been the Red Devils regular goalkeeper over the past two years, has quit the national team in protest, and some teammates have offered veiled criticism of Courtois’ absence. 

Despite the discord, Courtois’ quality is unquestionable, and Belgium are more resilient defensively with him between the sticks. He has earned 102 senior caps, with Belgium losing just 14 matches during this time.

Courtois boasts 48 clean sheets with a save percentage of 79.5% and conceding 0.90 goals per game over the past year, ranks among the top five goalkeepers worldwide.

Serhiy Rebrov’s side have been in fine scoring form, netting in six consecutive games since September. However, it’s worth noting that Belgium were the last team to prevent them from scoring, during last summer’s Euros in Germany. 

The return of the 32-year-old goalkeeper might just help Belgium, who have won only two of their last ten games, keep a clean sheet and retain their place in Nations League A.

A Wembley return with a goal?

Marcus Rashford has swiftly rejoined the England squad after his loan move from Manchester United to Aston Villa. 

Based on his good performances so far—three assists and a 0.6 expected goals (xG) over five league games and two Champions League appearances—his selection is well deserved. 

Rashford last started for England in October 2023, scoring in a Euro qualifier against Italy at Wembley (pictured below). Could this be a good omen ahead of Friday’s clash with Albania?

New boss Thomas Tuchel might opt not to start the 27-year-old, but Rashford is certainly expected to feature. If he does, a goal or assist wouldn’t be surprising, given that Rashford averages a goal involvement every three games for the Three Lions, with 17 goals and six assists in 60 caps. 

Albania have scored in seven of their last nine away matches, but England boast four clean sheets in their last six outings. Tuchel will be eager for both his and England’s World Cup qualifying campaign to start flawlessly. There’s a strong possibility it will, and Rashford could play a crucial role. 

Experience in the middle of the park

Following a series of strong performances for Bayern Munich, Leon Goretzka has earned a recall to the national squad for their UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash against Italy.

Goretzka earned his last cap with Die Manschaft in November 2023 (a 2-0 defeat to Austria) and did not take part in the Euros. But Julian Nagelsmann has been renowned for selecting players in top form, rather than relying on reputation. 

Hence Goretzka, who has started seven out of eight Champions League games this season for Bayern, returns to the national fold. 

Goretzka found himself on the fringes at the start of the season, recording just a single minute of action in the first six Bundesliga games. His fortunes began to change with a start in a crucial 1-0 victory over St. Pauli on matchday 10. 

Since then, Goretzka has been a regular fixture, missing only one league match due to injury, and recently netting his fifth goal of the season in a 3-1 victory over Stuttgart. 

German football legend Lothar Matthäus believes Goretzka should start against Italy, praising his attitude and character. 

“You can always rely on Leon,” Matthäus told Sky Sport. “I’m convinced he’ll deliver for the national team. The double pivot role suits him well.”

Goretzka’s experience could be key in this young German squad, with 12 out of 23 players having earned five caps or fewer. 

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