Real’s Surge Makes Them The Value Bet For Champions League Victory

Last season’s holders, Real Madrid, have seen their chances of defending their Champions League crown leap to 13.1%. 

A remarkable 6% increase, following their victory over Manchester City in the first leg, according to our in-house projection model, BETSiE.

As they prepare for the second leg against the Premier League champions, our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella explains why now could be the ideal time to back Los Blancos to be kings of Europe for the 16th time.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

History favours Carlo once again

Carlo Ancelotti’s squad boasts an 84.7% likelihood of advancing to the Round of 16, with a 72.8% probability of avoiding defeat in Wednesday’s clash at the Santiago Bernabeu against City. 

In contrast, Pep Guardiola’s side faces a daunting task, with their average odds of 3.70 for a win being the highest for any Champions League match since their 4-0 loss to Barcelona in Guardiola’s debut City season. 

Winning in Madrid has historically been challenging for the ‘Citizens’, who have claimed just one success in their six Champions League outings at the Bernabeu, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per match while conceding 1.83. 

This Wednesday, they are projected by BETSiE to concede 2.08 goals.

Real Madrid have a strong track record after winning the first leg, progressing from 37 of the previous 39 instances, only faltering against Odense Boldklub (1994-95 UEFA Cup) and Ajax (2018-19 UEFA Champions League). 

On the other hand, the Citizens have consistently been eliminated from Europe’s elite competition on five occasions following an initial defeat. 

Furthermore, Real Madrid has only failed to score in one of their last 78 home outings in the competition, a 3-0 defeat to CSKA Moscow in December 2018, while Guardiola’s men have suffered three consecutive away losses, making an unprecedented victory for City appear unlikely.

Why Premier League sides are a risky bet

What makes betting on Real Madrid for the title or a final appearance in Munich a value proposition right now? 

They currently stand at odds of 6.00, suggesting a 16.7% implied probability of winning, closely aligned with BETSiE’s projections of 13.1%. 

In comparison, the two other frontrunners, Arsenal with odds of 7.00 (implying a 14.3% probability) and Liverpool with odds of 5.00 (20% probability), are less in sync with BETSiE’s estimates. 

Arsenal, according to BETSiE, has a 22.9% chance, highlighting an over 8% differential, and Liverpool stands at 17.4%, raising doubts whether bookmakers are overestimating Arne Slot’s side. 

Although Arsenal and Liverpool outperformed Real Madrid in the league phase, backing them for final success might be risky. 

In fact Arsenal has not advanced beyond the quarter-finals since the 2009/10 season, and six-time champions Liverpool have only surpassed the semi-finals once in the past four campaigns. 

Experience counts for much in football, and with Madrid’s European pedigree, their odds may shorten further should they progress to the Round of 16.

All roads lead to…Munich

Interestingly, Real Madrid’s potential path to the final seems less daunting. 

They could face either Atletico Madrid (with a 0.7% victory projection) or Bayer Leverkusen (2.4%) in the Round of 16. 

In contrast, Liverpool might meet PSG (11% projection), while Arsenal could face Bayern Munich (8.4%), the very team that knocked them out last season. 

While it’s still early days and much will be clearer following the draw on Friday, 21 February, Real Madrid seem to have conquered early hurdles. 

Their recent performance against City, despite a makeshift defence, saw them defend robustly and maintain pressure, overcoming City convincingly.

Historically, Madrid has turned the tables as the lesser-performing side, but this time around, they posed a constant threat to City, suggesting they might indeed be the genuine favourites to clinch another continental title.

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