Rayo Vallecano's European Ambitions Make Them A Value Bet

Unbeaten in the last nine games, Rayo Vallecano have emerged as the outsiders to finish sixth in La Liga and return to play in European competitions for the first time in over two decades. 

Last week’s victory over Real Valladolid has rekindled dreams of European nights, a fare the club hasn’t savoured since reaching the UEFA Cup quarter-finals in 2001.

But is Rayo’s form sustainable? Our European football expert Daniele Fisichella has crunched the numbers. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

‘Working class heroes’ are dreaming big

Victory against Valladolid represents another milestone for manager Íñigo Pérez, who has already made history in Vallecas.

In fact Rayo have established their longest unbeaten run in the top flight, a positive streak that has propelled them into a position currently earmarked for the UEFA Conference League. 

However, depending on the outcome of the Copa del Rey final, this could very well translate into qualification for next season’s Europa League.

Intriguingly, Rayo’s recent success comes despite a noticeable absence of a prolific scorer. 

Since their return to La Liga, in 2021 under Andoni Iraola, no Rayo player has reached double digits in goals. 

Pérez, Iraola’s former assistant, narrowly guided the team to survival last season, and this campaign has instilled a direct style of play, all while fortifying the team from the back.

Rayo’s starting line-up is the oldest on average across the league, clocking in at 29 years and 83 days, nearly a year more seasoned than the next oldest, Leganés. 

Lacking a star player, Rayo excel in making their collective greater than the sum of their parts.

Not just a solid defence

Goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has been instrumental in Rayo’s formidable run, saving two penalties against Leganes, as he ranks in the top 12 in save percentages across Europe’s top five leagues (77%). 

Rayo’s knack for unsettling the league’s top teams is clear as they have taken the lead against all four current Champions League qualifiers—Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético, and Athletic Club. 

Although these leads did not translate into victories, they demonstrate Rayo’s daring approach. 

Their style was evident against Girona, one of La Liga’s teams that keep the ball for more time. 

Rayo dominated possession with 57.1% and pressed with 10 high turnovers, unsettling their opponents. Similarly, against Atlético in September, they held 54.8% possession and reclaimed the ball eight times in the final third, resulting in a deserved draw.

Their expected goals (xG) per shot of 0.09 trails behind all but Getafe, while 42% of their attempts have been long-range shots, placing them among the highest in the league for attempts from outside the box. 

Organised chaos is paying off

Rayo’s style under Pérez pays dividends, although it can often get chaotic, 

Vallecas itself amplifies this effect; its tight pitch lends a frenetic, pinball-esque quality to games, with the home team ranking third in La Liga for unsuccessful touches. 

Often Rayo’s home games are frantic, therefore betting on a high number of throw-ins is a smart option, considering there have been 47, or more, in their past three games in front of their crowd.

But, the big question, for bettors, is whether Rayo’s impressive form is sustainable. 

After last weekend, their chances of finishing in the top six have risen to 15.3%, a notable 4% increase from seven days before. 

At the season’s start, Rayo’s odds of a top-six finish were a mere 0.5%. They faced only an 8% likelihood of ending in the top half and a 28% risk of relegation, underlining their remarkable performance thus far.

This makes betting on Rayo’s European qualification an intriguing, albeit somewhat risky, proposition. 

According to expected points, Rayo should be sitting in 10th place, having significantly outperformed both their xG (+5.40) and xGA (+7.87), thanks largely to their goalkeeper’s heroics.

Rayo are currently sixth in the away table, but daunting trips to Barcelona and Real Madrid could prove challenging. Based on expected away points, Rayo should be 12th in Spain’s top division, suggesting they might struggle to take points from these matches. 

Further adding to their challenges are upcoming home fixtures against Villarreal, Sevilla, and Real Sociedad. 

With such a tough schedule ahead, the team from Vallecas might find themselves regressing to the mean.

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