The Premier League's Transfer Market Spending Habits

Sometimes in life, you have to go far beyond what the average person is willing or capable of doing to get what you want. A win is a win, right? No matter how you achieve it? Or is it? What if those efforts lead to diminishing returns? That job you worked so hard for ends up making you miserable and extends far beyond your 8-hour workday. Or that love interest isn’t as friendly and as kind as you thought. What if the striker your club spent the entire summer chasing—after a stellar 25-goal season—turns out to be a one-season wonder? Yet you’ve paid £50 million for a player valued at £25.6 million. 

Delving into Premier League Clubs’ Buying Efficiency

With the summer transfer window well and truly slammed shut, we’ve analysed every bit of available data to determine which Premier League clubs have been the most efficient when it comes to player acquisitions. Using data from Transfermarkt, we aimed to identify the most transfer-savvy Premier League clubs over the past decade by employing a Player Value Index (PVI) to assess how well each club maximised the value of its player purchases.

Understanding the Player Value Index (PVI)

The Player Value Index (PVI) adjusts transfer fees relative to a player’s market value at the time of purchase, providing a more accurate measure of a club’s buying efficiency. The PVI is calculated as the ratio between the player’s market value and the transfer fee. For example, if a player valued at £50 million is purchased for £40 million, the PVI is 1.25, indicating a purchase below market value.

Identifying the “worst buyers” can be subjective. A player may be purchased for an inflated fee but goes on to excel on the pitch—becoming a goal-scoring machine, a creative hub for the team, or the defensive lynchpin needed to win a league or avoid relegation. This article focuses purely on the financial data to highlight which clubs are prone to overspending in the transfer market. And according to the data, Bournemouth ranks as the Premier League’s worst-buying side over the past decade, with a PVI of 3.8. They are closely followed by Swansea City and Cardiff City, with PVIs of 3.1 and 3.0, respectively.

Chelsea: Big Spending, Big Risks

Chelsea ranks as the highest Big Six club in terms of overspending, with a PVI of 2.9. The club’s spending habits in recent seasons have drawn significant attention, especially following the takeover by Todd Boehly’s consortium. Under new ownership, Chelsea has made large-scale investments in players such as Wesley Fofana (£80.4m), Marc Cucurella (£65.3m), and Raheem Sterling (£56.2m). Chelsea also broke the British transfer record by signing Moisés Caicedo from Brighton.

Interestingly, Brighton & Hove Albion—known for their strategic, data-driven recruitment approach, which unearths hidden talents and turns modest investments into profitable transfers—ranks as the 11th best buyer over the last decade. Notable examples include Alexis Mac Allister (signed from Argentina), Moisés Caicedo (signed from Ecuador), and Kaoru Mitoma (signed from Japan), showcasing Brighton’s international scouting prowess.

The Big Six: Manchester United’s Overspending vs. Manchester City’s Success

The Premier League’s Big Six powerhouses—such as Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United—find themselves in the lower half of the buying efficiency table. Manchester United, in particular, has faced criticism for their high-profile signings, including Paul Pogba, Harry Maguire, Romelu Lukaku, Angel Di Maria, Jadon Sancho, and Alexis Sánchez. These players, often acquired for inflated fees, have largely failed to live up to their price tags.

While Manchester City could also be accused of overspending on players like Jack Grealish, Matheus Nunes, and Kalvin Phillips, the key difference has been City’s significant on-field success during this period, especially in comparison to their rivals.

The Biggest Individual Premier League Overpayments

As the years go by, we are only seeing the transfer fees of players continue to rise. Our data shows that Chelsea are leading the way in this. Enzo Fernández, the club’s talented but controversial midfielder, tops the list of individual overpayments, with Chelsea spending £100.9 million on a player whose market value was just £45.9 million, leading to an overpayment of -£55.0 million. Chelsea also significantly overpaid for Kepa Arrizabalaga (£50.0 million) and Manchester United for their Brazilian Antony (-£50.0 million).

Other notable overpayments include Virgil van Dijk, for whom Liverpool paid £70.6 million—exceeding his market value by -£45.6 million—and Jack Grealish, whose £98.0 million transfer fee was -£43.8 million over his market value. Moisés Caicedo also makes the list, moving to Chelsea for a record £96.8 million, despite a market value differential of £34.2 million.

Wesley Fofana and Marc Cucurella: Chelsea’s Costly Defenders

Wesley Fofana joined Chelsea from Leicester City for £67.1 million, despite his market value being £33.4 million. While Fofana was expected to strengthen Chelsea’s defense due to his pace, intelligence, and tackling ability, recurring injury issues, including an ACL tear, have raised concerns about his long-term fitness. Meanwhile, Marc Cucurella, signed for £54.5 million (market value: £23.4 million), has struggled to replicate his Brighton form at Chelsea. However, after a strong showing in Spain’s Euro 2024 success and with the appointment of Enzo Maresca as Chelsea’s new head coach, Cucurella is becoming a key part of Maresca’s system.

Manchester United’s Expensive Misses

Manchester United’s pursuit of Paul Pogba in the 2016/17 season and Romelu Lukaku in 2017/18 saw them pay inflated fees for both players, who underperformed during their time at the club. Pogba was purchased for £87.6 million (market value: £58.4 million), leading to a differential of -£29.2 million. Similarly, Lukaku’s transfer fee of £70.6 million far exceeded his market value of £41.7 million, leading to an overpayment of -£28.9 million.

The Premier League’s transfer market is a high-stakes game, with many clubs willing to spend over the odds to secure their desired players. While some clubs have seen success justify their expenditure, others have been left counting the cost of overspending. As this data highlights, spending big doesn’t always mean buying smart, and the most successful clubs in the future may well be the ones that get the balance right between financial outlay and on-field results.