Premier League Betting Tips: Profiting from Late Goals and Comebacks

Late goals are redefining the Premier League this season. With over 20% of goals scored after the 76th minute, the comeback market offers exciting betting opportunities. Understanding which teams excel at rescuing points—and which crumble under pressure—can help sharpen your betting strategies.

The Rescuers vs. The Droppers

Defending champions Manchester City are masters of the comeback, earning 14 points from losing positions this season. Although their defensive struggles have been exposed, Pep Guardiola’s side has consistently turned games around. Last season, City averaged 1.85 points per game from matches where they conceded first. However, that figure has dropped to 1.4 this campaign, contributing to their eight-point deficit behind leaders Liverpool.

Liverpool, in contrast, are the epitome of resilience. The Reds have yet to drop points after taking the lead and average 1.6 points recovered per game when behind, sustaining last season’s trend of 1.56.

Manchester United, however, lag behind other top clubs in resilience, recovering just 28 of 123 possible points since the 2022/23 season.

Relegation Battles: Fighting to the End

For relegation-threatened teams, the ability to recover points is critical. Leicester City have stood out, clawing back seven points from losing positions this season. This makes them an intriguing pick for second-half goals when visiting Newcastle this weekend.

By contrast, last season’s relegated sides, Burnley and Sheffield United, managed only seven points combined after falling behind.

Surprise Package: Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest’s impressive start has seen them take the lead in 80% of matches, dropping just nine points to sit fifth in the table. However, their record when conceding first is poor, with just one draw from five losing positions—the second-worst in the league.

Betting Tips for Upcoming Fixtures

• Bournemouth vs West Ham: Bournemouth have led nine times this season, earning 2.44 points per game when doing so. Back the Cherries to score first and combine with a double chance on the hosts (win/draw) for value.
• Aston Villa’s Away Struggles: Despite conceding first in four of seven away games, Villa have rescued 11 points, averaging 1.22 points recovered. A bet on under 3.5 goals with a double chance for the visitors could pay dividends.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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