Potential Title Play-Off Makes Serie A The League To Bet On

Bologna’s last-minute winner against Inter Milan on Sunday has dramatically altered the Scudetto race in Italy. With just five games remaining, the Nerazzurri and Napoli are now level on 71 points, and the odds for each side to claim the Serie A title are almost identical.

According to our in-house prediction tool, BETSiE, the title race promises to go down to the wire. Factors like fixture difficulty, Inter’s commitments in the Champions League and Coppa Italia, as well as injuries, suspensions, and managerial experience, could all prove decisive.

Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has delved into one of the most exciting title races in Italy’s history and offers his betting advice.

Easier run-in suggests it’s Conte’s year

At first glance the fixture list seems to favour Napoli when considering the average points per game of the teams they both must face (1.39 Inter vs 0.96 Napoli).

Each contender has three home games and two away; the home advantage is equal. The strength of the opponents, however, is not: Inter will face two teams competing for European spots, Roma and Lazio; Napoli face none. They share only one common opponent, Torino, a tough nut for any side, but Inter will play them away while Conte welcomes them to the “Maradona”.

It’s true that, at times, teams fighting for survival find unexpected energy (and Napoli will face three: Lecce, Parma, Cagliari), but Inter’s path is undoubtedly more treacherous, considering their additional commitments in the Coppa Italia and Europe.

Meanwhile, bookmakers have already adjusted the ante-post odds for the title win: Inter are now slight favourites (1.80 to 2.00) on major platforms like Bet365, William Hill, and Betfred. However, other bookmakers offer even lower odds for the reigning champions, such as 1.73, including Paddy Power, Betfred, and Ladbrokes.

A stronger, but fatigued, squad

The Nerazzurri played their 50th match of the season against Bologna whereas the Partenopei have only reached 36 games following their hard fought victory against bottom of the table Monza. Inter have more reason to feel both physical and mental fatigue, though the squad’s depth can mitigate the effects of such a demanding schedule.

Both teams have the highest average age in Serie A, with Inter first and Napoli second. However, Inzaghi manages players more accustomed to high-pressure situations, starting with Lautaro, who boasts World Cup, Copa America, and Serie A titles. Many from Inter’s squad have clinched the last one or two Serie A titles, and some are European champions with Italy, although Conte’s side also features a few.

Napoli’s players have less experience in such scenarios; aside from some who won the title under Spalletti, including Di Lorenzo, and Lukaku, many fine players, such as McTominay, Gilmour, Buongiorno, and Marin, have limited accolades. Will these pressures prove insurmountable?

This season, Inzaghi has confirmed his reputation as a superb manager of teams and atmospheres, showcasing his preparedness and resilience. But Conte is in a league of his own — few can enhance a squad’s value like him, and his knack for winning trophies, especially league titles, with ostensibly weaker teams is unparalleled, from Juventus to Chelsea and later Inter. While his temperament is notable, his impact is undeniable.

Inter’s squad depth surpasses Napoli’s — a fact hard to contest. For example, Conte’s first defensive backup is Juan Jesus, while Inzaghi’s third choice could be De Vrij, Bisseck, or Carlos Augusto. Napoli’s starting eleven is competitive but struggles when missing key players. The gap has widened following Kvaratskhelia’s January departure, only slightly offset by Inter’s additional matches.

It might not end on 25 May

According to our predictions, 82 points could be enough to secure the title, potentially setting a record for the lowest average points per game for the Scudetto since the 2002/03 season, when Juventus averaged 2.11 points per match.

From now on, the matches involving both Inter and Napoli are expected to be very tense and closely contested. Inter’s remaining games are projected to produce a total of 12 goals (an average of 2.4 per game), while Napoli’s are expected to produce even fewer, with 11 goals (an average of 2.2). Therefore, backing the Under 2.5 Goals market in the remaining 10 games might be a smart betting strategy.

However if there’s a tie after the final matchday, an extraordinary playoff would determine the winner. The only occasion this occurred in Italy was in 1964, when Bologna defeated Inter 2-0 in Rome.

With head-to-head records between Napoli and Inter perfectly balanced, with both encounters ending 1-1, the Scudetto decider, if points are level, will hinge on the overall goal difference.

Here, the Milan side holds a clear advantage, boasting a +40 goal difference with 72 goals scored and 32 conceded. Napoli may have the league’s best defence, conceding just 25 goals, but they struggle offensively, scoring 52 for a +27 difference. This scenario is unlikely to change by the end of the season. Therefore, if Inter and Napoli conclude level on points, a one-off playoff at San Siro will determine the 2024/25 title, proceeding straight to penalties if tied after 90 minutes.

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