Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Betting Preview

The Tricky Trees haven’t lost in their last seven Premier League games heading into this Nottingham Forest vs Southampton betting preview, overseen by Josh Ingram. Southampton will make the trip up north needing a win as they watch themselves be cut adrift at the bottom. 

The worst team in the division against one of the most in-form outfits, it has the prospect of being a very one-sided matchup. The Forest squad have shown what it takes to win against all types of Premier League elevens this season. This fixture might require them to come out of the blocks flying as they did against the league leaders.

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Prediction: Forest to punish the Basement boys

England, Premier League, Saturday, 18th, 12:30 (UK)

After 21 games played, Nottingham Forest are in a title race. Will they win the Premier League? Probably not. However, they are in the hunt for the top four and have a great chance of achieving it. Nuno Espirito Santo has been a revelation since he took charge last season, and his style of play for this squad is a match made in heaven. This is a counter-attacking side at their core, and nothing is wrong with that. Forest have the lowest possession in the league at 39.49%, but they are winning games and doing so in devastating fashion.

Southampton, on the other hand, are poor. They may have changed managers, but the squad is still the same, and it’s not Premier League standard. In almost every defensive metric, they are the worst. The Saints have conceded the most shots per90 (18.35), the most shots on target conceded per90 (6.80), the most xG against per90 (2.36), and they’re the third worst for goals conceded (44). It’s a far cry from the exciting attacking Saints side from nearly a decade ago when they clawed their way into Europe. 

Nuno’s Tricky Trees are a good first-half side, as shown against league leaders Liverpool on Tuesday night. Only one chance was needed for their red-hot striker, Chris Wood, before heading into the break leading 1-0 at halftime. Of their 21 games, Forest have been winning in eight after 45 minutes. Southampton are the complete opposite; they have been losing at halftime in over half of their games. They have been behind in 11 of 20 games and ultimately lost ten of 11 come the final whistle. The only match they managed to turn it around was away at Brighton, drawing 1-1. 

Individual quality shouldn’t be overlooked in the Southampton squad. They don’t have a player who can win a game on his own, which is obviously to their detriment. Forest boasts numerous players who can muster a moment of brilliance: Morgan Gibbs-White, Chris Wood, and, usually, anyone who starts in that explosive front four. 

Forest are hard to break down at the other end. This selection is for the best when the team you are backing is defensively sound and resolute. Nottingham Forest limits opponents and punishes the bad sides in this division. Against the bottom half, they are unbeaten, playing 11 games and winning nine times. Nottingham Forest concedes less than a goal per90, the joint second-best in the league. They haven’t done this by luck; they limit their opponents to 1.09xG per game. The weekend’s hosts force opponents to shoot from outside the box. Only 63.32% of the shots they face are in the box, which is the second-best in the league. And I wouldn’t fancy my chances of beating Matz Sels from distance. The Forest shot-stopper leaders the Premier League with nine clean sheets. 

• Nottingham vs Southampton Prediction: Nottingham Forest HT:FT (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET) 

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton betting preview odds via bet365 as at 12:00, January 16th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction:  No great injury concerns for Nuno and Juric

Nuno must be loving the selection headache he has lately. It’s not often a manager only has one injury of note from his first team. It must be a nice predicament to be in. Only Ibrahim Sangare is in the treatment room. As of January 9th, he was slowly being integrated back into training, but we won’t see him until mid-February after the long layoff with his thigh injury. What this means for the starting eleven is that Nuno can afford to rotate players in and out of the team, given how fast-paced the games are, playing Tuesday and Sunday. 

Ivan Juric has almost a fully fit squad. The only absentees of note are Flynn Downes, who should be back fully fit for this game as he is facing a fitness test before Man United at Old Trafford. The other is Jack Stephens, whose absence until February makes them weaker at the back. The Saints have several options they can pick and choose from, but the back three with wingbacks will likely be exposed in wide areas.

Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Domiguez, Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Wood; Bree, Ugochukwu, Fernandes, Walker-Peters; Dibling, Archer, Sulemana

Match Stats: Saints struggles against Forest

• Since Forests returned to the top flight, they have played each other three times. On all three occasions, Southampton have been the side to lose. A 4-3 win in the 2022/23 season was most notable. This win in the 35th round of fixtures was crucial for Forest’s survival and Saints’ demise. 
• The game between the two early on in the season ended 1-0 to Nottingham Forest on the south coast. It was in dominant fashion and should have been a higher score. Forest ended with 2.45xG, and Saints could only muster a measly 0.13xG. 
• Morgan Gibbs-White scored the winner between the two when they last met, and he is having a great season. Scoring four times and assisting on three occasions. 

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