New managers' bounce is an opportunity for Champions League's bettors

Three teams competing in the Champions League Round of 16 have undergone managerial changes midway through the season. 

While Feyenoord and Borussia Dortmund have endured disappointing domestic campaigns, leading to the dismissal of Nuri Şahin and Brian Priske respectively, Benfica opted to part ways with Roger Schmidt earlier in the season.

The impact of a new manager has proven beneficial for all three teams, with each successfully overcoming their Champions League play-offs and improving their league performances. 

European football’s elite competition is no stranger to remarkable turnarounds sparked by managerial changes, and our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, delves into the key factors to consider when betting on the first leg of the Round of 16.

On Zidane and Di Matteo’s footsteps

While none of these three teams are among the favourites to lift the trophy, with BETSiE giving Borussia Dortmund—the highest among them—only a 1.6% chance, it’s important to remember that four clubs have won the Champions League after replacing their managers mid-season. 

In 2012, Roberto Di Matteo (pictured below) took over from André Villas-Boas at Chelsea, not only overturning a 3-1 first-leg deficit against Napoli in the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League, but also leading the Blues to successes over Benfica, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich in the final.

Nine years later, history repeated itself at Stamford Bridge when Thomas Tuchel succeeded Frank Lampard in late January. 

Under the German manager, Chelsea defeated Atletico Madrid, Porto, Real Madrid, and Manchester City, aided by a formidable defence that secured five clean sheets in seven matches. 

Zinedine Zidane’s and Hansi Flick’s achievements at Real Madrid in 2016 and Bayern Munich in 2020, respectively, may seem less surprising given the stature of these clubs. Nevertheless, Zidane’s victories over Roma, Wolfsburg, and Manchester City and Flick’s flawless 2019/20 Champions League campaign—with eight wins and an average of 3.75 goals per game—underscore that a mid-season managerial switch can indeed galvanise a team in Europe.

Most recently, Sevilla clinched the Europa League in the 2023/24 season despite navigating through three managerial changes. José Luis Mendilibar (pictured above with Ivan Rakitic), then a debutant in European competitions, was appointed at the end of March and guided the team to victory in the final in Budapest, defeating Roma on penalties after eliminating Manchester United and Juventus.

Experience is on Niko’s corner 

Borussia Dortmund emerge as strong favourites among these three clubs to reach the quarter-finals. Their average odds of 1.73 on the 1×2 market for the first leg make them the shortest-priced home team in this round of fixtures. Despite facing the challenge of playing the return leg away, BETSiE gives them a 70% chance of eliminating Lille. 

Only Real Madrid, with a 78.90% probability, has a better chance among teams hosting the first leg this week.

Niko Kovač has been at the helm of the Westphalian club for just six matches, recording three wins, two losses, and a draw, resulting in a win rate of 50%, higher than Nuri Şahin’s 44%. 

Crucially, Kovač’s experience might be key, having managed 17 Champions League games, including during his tenures at Bayern Munich and Monaco, boasting a remarkable record of 10 wins, five draws, and only two defeats.

Furthermore, Borussia Dortmund have lost just four of their last 12 Champions League knockout matches at the Westfalenstadion, with six wins and two draws. 

From a betting perspective, Lille have registered only 76 shots in the competition, with only four teams—Salzburg, Sparta Prague, Sturm Graz, and Slovan Bratislava—producing fewer. 

This suggests that backing Borussia Dortmund on the Corner Asian Handicap at -2 could be a smart move to nearly double your stake.

Another goal fest at the Da Luz

In his second spell at the helm of Benfica, Bruno Lage is surpassing his previous achievements from his tenure between 2019 and June 2020. 

During that period, he also took charge mid-season and steered the club to their 37th league title. This season, Lage boasts a 72.22% winning ratio, which is five percentage points higher than during his first spell. 

He stands alongside Hansi Flick of Barcelona, Luis Enrique of PSG, and Xabi Alonso at Leverkusen as one of four managers in the current Champions League still vying for four titles this season, having already secured the Taça da Liga and sharing the top spot in the Portuguese league with Sporting.

Under Lage, Benfica have only lost three out of 12 European matches at the Estadio da Luz and have averaged 2.4 goals per game at home in the Champions League this season. 

BETSiE assigns Benfica just a 23.80% chance of qualification, yet the projected goals tally for the first leg is 3.26. Backing the Over 1.25 goals Asian Line in the first half could be a profitable choice.

RVP has got the hardest job

Finally, Robin van Persie and Feyenoord face the daunting challenge of taking on Inter Milan, who, according to BETSiE, boast an 81.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. 

However, playing at De Kuip has proven difficult for Serie A sides. Feyenoord have lost only one of their 14 home games against Italian teams and have triumphed in four of the last five encounters.

Robin van Persie’s Feyenoord side is among the youngest in the competition, with an average age just over 23, in contrast to Inter, who are one of the most seasoned squads. 

Van Persie himself has managed just 26 games in his career, at Heerenveen, winning only nine, and made his debut on the Feyenoord bench with a 0-0 home draw against NEC.  

It’s no surprise that the Dutch outfit are the biggest underdogs in the 1X2 market at 5.00 among the Round of 16 teams.

The projected goal tally stands at 2.68, according to BETSiE, but Inter’s primary strength in Europe lies in their defensive organisation and ability to control the game’s tempo. 

So far, Inter have kept seven clean sheets. Back in the 2022/23 season, when they reached the final, Inter managed eight clean sheets throughout the competition. 

Furthermore, 15 of Inter’s 19 away Champions League matches under Simone Inzaghi’s management, including the 2022/23 final, have produced two goals or fewer. 

In 2025, the Nerazzurri have scored more than two goals away from home in just one out of six matches across all competitions—a commanding 4-0 victory at Lecce—and currently find themselves in the midst of an injury crisis.

Federico Dimarco, the left wing-back who has been pivotal for Inter, creating the highest expected assists (xA) for the team in European matches this season, was forced off the pitch after scoring the opening goal against Napoli last weekend.

Adding to Inzaghi’s woes, three other wing-backs—Carlos Augusto, Matteo Darmian, and Nicola Zalewski—are all sidelined, which may compel the manager to either deploy Denzel Dumfries out of position or shift Inter’s formation to an unconventional 4-4-2.

This scenario makes betting on the Under 2.75 Goals Asian Line as an enticing option.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.