New Betting Angle Emerges in South American World Cup Qualifiers

The South American World Cup qualifiers have long been known for their gritty and unpredictable nature. While teams like Brazil and Argentina often showcase flair and attacking talent, recent qualifiers have bucked the trend, with tight, low-scoring games dominating the landscape. For bettors looking to capitalise, this shift offers fresh opportunities.

Brazil’s Defensive Struggles and the New Betting Dynamic

In the current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying campaign, the statistics tell a different story than previous years. Over 45 matches, the average goals per game have dropped to just 1.78, a steep decline from the 2.5+ averages seen in previous cycles. Nearly 50% of games have ended with 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 scorelines. Even South American heavyweights like Brazil and Argentina have struggled to find the net consistently, making low-scoring games a trend that punters cannot ignore.

Brazil, in particular, has seen its traditionally dominant form dwindle. Injuries to key players such as Neymar and Vinícius Júnior have left them lacking attacking prowess, resulting in four losses in their last nine qualifiers. This cautious, defensive approach presents an ideal opportunity for betting strategies that combine a favourite’s win with under 3.5 goals.

The Impact of Environment and Travel on CONMEBOL Qualifiers

South America’s unique geographic challenges also play a critical role in shaping match outcomes. The high altitudes of Bolivia, for example, have always made it a difficult destination for visiting teams, but with recent matches moved to El Alto, the highest city in South America, the advantage has intensified. This environmental factor is one reason why low-scoring games are prevalent.

Moreover, the extensive travel burdens on players who ply their trade in Europe contribute to slower-paced matches, as physical and mental fatigue affect performances. Teams like Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia often feature squads with a high number of overseas players, who have little time to adjust after long flights. This fatigue leads to fewer scoring chances, further reinforcing the value of betting on under 3.5 goals.

Paraguay: The Masters of Defensive Football

With FIFA expanding the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams, the South American qualifiers have introduced a new format, making it easier for teams to secure spots. Six of the 10 CONMEBOL teams will qualify directly, with a seventh entering a playoff. This has reduced the pressure to score, with teams instead focusing on securing points through disciplined, low-risk football.

Paraguay exemplifies this trend. In nine qualifying matches, they’ve scored just two goals and conceded three, with five 0-0 draws. Bettors who back Paraguay to deliver low-scoring results have seen consistent returns, and this cautious approach makes Paraguay a reliable team for under 3.5 goals betting.

Betting Strategy: Backing Favourites with Under 3.5 Goals

Given the new format and the frequency of tight, low-scoring games, betting on under 3.5 goals combined with a favourite’s win offers an excellent angle. Teams like Argentina and Colombia, who are both on a strong path to qualification, have been edging out narrow wins through strong defensive performances rather than goal-filled thrillers. This pattern aligns well with betting strategies focused on disciplined play and low goal totals.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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