Neel Shah’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets

Neel Shah is back at bettingexpert and has chose his top five ante-post outright bets to open up his season’s punting on the website. From the Premier League  and Darwin Nunez’s goalscoring account, to the port city of Marseille in Ligue 1, there should be something for everyone below.

Can Bayer Leverkusen rip up the Bundesliga script once again with Vincent Kompany at the helm in Munich? Luckily, for us, it doesn’t really matter what those Bavarians are up to this time around.

• Top Premier League Goalscorer: Darwin Nunez 
• Top Premier League Goalscorer: Christopher Nkunku 
• Bundesliga without Bayern Munich: Bayer Leverkusen
• La Liga to be relegated: Espanyol
• Ligue 1 without PSG: Marseille

2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.

The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.

Top Premier League Goalscorer: Darwin Nunez

England, Premier League

The much maligned and often frustrating Uruguayan striker has gone through somewhat of an evolution under his national team manager, Marcelo Bielsa, and has been in great form for the national side in the past year, scoring vital goals against Colombia, Brazil and Argentina in World Cup Qualifiers.

Despite his rumoured It might surprise non-Liverpool fans that he clocked the 3rd most minutes of any Liverpool player last season and averaged 0.46 goals per 90 minutes. He hit the woodwork nine times and missed the second highest number of big chances (27) in the entire league.

One would hope that his Uruguay form carries over to Liverpool and the stats show he was a tad unfortunate last year and this should lead to an uptick in goals this time around.

Another factor in his favour is that he may also be subject to a lengthy international ban after the Copa America semi final and the crowd troubles that ensued. However, Uruguay’s loss is also Liverpool’s gain as he should be fully rested for the international breaks during the season.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Darwin Nunez- Top Premier League Goalscorer
• Best Odds: 22/1 [4 places each way]
• Bookmaker: Spreadex
• Stake: 2/10

Top Premier League Goalscorer: Christopher Nkunku

England, Premier League

This is a far more speculative selection but it’s an eye catching one at the prices. The electric Frenchman had a horrid time with injuries last season, missing out on more than two thirds of the season with knee and hamstring injuries respectively. Despite not completing 90 minutes in the league, he still managed 3 goals in a chaotic season for Chelsea.

He’s started all of the Blues’ 4 pre season friendlies at the time of writing and scored a goal in 3 of them, notably being on penalty duty in two of those games. His flexibility and ability to play across the front line means he should be getting regular game time if he is fully fit. In the last game against Man City, he was nominally playing as the central forward, a potential nod to how he might be used tactically in the coming season.

• Ante-Post Selection 2: Christopher Nkunku – Top Premier League Goalscorer
• Best Odds: 51.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 1/10

Bundesliga without Bayern Munich: Bayer Leverkusen

Germany, Bundesliga

This season’s Bundesliga should be fascinating, with Bayern Munich appointing Vincent Kompany as their new coach and Borussia Dortmund encouraging assistant manager and club legend, Nuri Sahin, in making the step from assistant to head coach.

The bookmakers are sceptical of Leverkusen’s chances of retaining their crown, with Bayern Munich installed as 1/2 favourites to resume business as usual. It will be one of the greatest feats in football history if Leverkusen can repeat what they did last year and can be bet at 33/1 if you fancy it.

Although I think Leverkusen have every chance of winning the title again and that Bayern are too short, I would rather take the insurance in the ‘without Bayern’ market. Looking at the other two likely contenders for second place, Borussia Dortmund’s incredible Champions League run masked an inconsistent season, and Nuri Sahin is still relatively inexperienced as a coach, with just a year and a half in Turkey and the back end of last season as assistant at Dortmund. Leipzig will also be missing the creative threat of Xavi Simons who has returned to PSG and the potential departure of Dani Olmo, without adequate replacements of the same quality at the time of writing.

In sharp contrast, with the exception of Josip Stanisic, who returns to Bayern Munich after his loan spell, Leverkusen’s squad has remained intact and Xavi Alonso commited his future to the club despite overtures from Liverpool and Bayern Munich last season. There’s much to be said for the consistency of management, structure and playing personnel and I can’t look past them securing second place at the very least, considering they were playing European football all of last season and still remained unbeaten in all competitions until the Europa League final.

• Ante-Post Selection 3: Bundesliga w/o Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 10/10

To be relegated in La Liga: Espanyol

Spain, La Liga

A bet that stood out after a little digging into the stats and a price which looks too generous at first glance. Espanyol scraped their way into La Liga, finishing in 4th place and having to battle through 4 playoff games to seal their place here. When they were relegated two seasons back, it was their second relegation in four years and added to their yo-yo club reputation.

Last season, although they were 14th out of 22 Segunda clubs in xG, with just 1.27 expected goals created per game. A double hammer blow is that they have lost Martin Braithwaite, who scored 22 times and had the highest xG of any individual player in the league. They also failed to score in 14 of their 42 league games.

Although their home form was phenomenal with just one defeat all season, they will need the Ceronelia El Prat to be a fortress to have any chance of staying up and with very little of note in the transfer window so far, it’s difficult to see where their goals will come from.

• Ante-Post Selection 4: La Liga – To be relegated – Espanyol
• Best Odds: 3.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Top 4 Finish in Ligue 1: Marseille

France, Ligue 1

Despite the departure of Kylian Mbappe, PSG remain the team to beat in France and are still a cut above the rest. However, the fight for the Champion’s League places is a fascinating one, with lots of teams in with a genuine chance of pushing them to the wire.

However, of the other big clubs, Marseille are the ones piquing everyone’s interest. New manager Roberto De Zerbi was on the radar of some of the biggest clubs in Europe but was sold on the Marseille project. They’ve already done some smart business in the transfer market and have funds to spare. Bamo Meite and Ismael Kone will give the team a more solid spine they were perhaps lacking last season and the loan signing of Pierre Emile Hojberg, from Tottenham, will bring an experienced presence in the centre of midfield.

Whatever one may think of Mason Greenwood’s past actions (and some Marseille fans have been quite vocal about this), there is no doubting his talent, which was on display at a struggling Getafe side last summer, and he may end up being one of the bargain signings of the season for just 25 million Euros. De Zerbi has shown he can get players up to speed quickly with his tactics, with a title win in his first season at Shakhtar Donetsk and taking Brighton to their highest ever Premier League finish in his debut season there.

• Ante-Post Selection 5: Top 4 Finish – Marseille
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stake: 10/10

Neel Shah’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets odds for best bets may now differ.

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