Moyes-led Everton could give Jordan Pickford surprise shot at Golden Glove

Everton have conceded the fifth-fewest expected goals in the Premier League this season, and Jordan Pickford is joint-second with nine clean sheets. 

Despite Pickford sitting one clean sheet off the lead, bet365 have the Everton and England goalkeeper out at 4.33 to win the Golden Glove.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Low Tally Required 

Nottingham Forest’s Matz Sels is the only goalkeeper with more clean sheets than Pickford. Everton’s number one is tied with Arsenal’s David Raya on nine shutouts apiece, with Sels currently on 10. 

First awarded in 2004/05, Pickford and Sels are looking to become the first goalkeeper outside the traditional Big Six to win the award for the most clean sheets in the Premier League. Pickford’s tally of nine – with 12 matches to play – leaves him with plenty of work to do as the lowest total from a winner since 2014/15 is 16. Ederson and Alisson shared the award with 20 apiece three seasons ago.

Joe Hart’s 14 clean sheets in 2014/15 is the only time anyone has won the Golden Glove with fewer than 16 clean sheets. Raya claimed the honour with 16 last season, though, as did Ederson in 2019/20. 

While history indicates Pickford needs to reel off six or seven clean sheets to win the award, this year’s clean sheet rate suggests otherwise. Sels is on pace for only 14.6 clean sheets. 

Everton’s Strong Defence

Forest have been rock-solid at the back all season, boasting the fourth-lowest expected goals against mark. Nuno Espirito Santo’s team have conceded the second-most expected goals since 11th January, however, while Everton are in the top seven in that category, despite playing an extra match.

Arsenal boast the lowest xGA figure and have been formidable defensively throughout the season. Still, Raya hasn’t kept a clean sheet against a team outside the bottom four since a goalless draw with Everton on 14th December. The Gunners have a daunting remaining fixture list – it looks like Raya will only get two, three, or at an absolute maximum, four more clean sheets. 

Everton have the fifth-lowest xG against mark across the whole season. Since David Moyes returned to the club on 11th January, they have rapidly pulled away from the relegation battle with clean sheets against Brighton and Leicester. 

The Toffees face Brentford, Wolves, and West Ham before the second Merseyside derby of 2025 at the end of March. They have the added bonus of hosting Ipswich and Southampton in the final four matchdays. 

Pickford Represents Betting Value

Pickford has a real opportunity to make history by winning the Golden Glove. Everton’s defence has been their strong suit all season, and their remaining fixture list represents numerous opportunities for clean sheets. 

We would expect Pickford to avoid conceding at least once in the next three matches. The same can’t be said for Nottingham Forest, who have Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United in their four matches before they take on Everton. 

Arsenal’s defensive numbers make it justifiable that Raya is favoured for this award. Sels has a shorter price than Pickford due to his extra clean sheet. Still, Pickford is the man to back in this market due to the confidence Everton have been playing with and their six remaining matches against below-average attacks. 

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