Milan vs Parma Prediction: Betting Preview

This Milan vs Parma prediction betting preview arrives following 8th-placed AC Milan struggling this season, finding themselves 19 points off leaders Napoli and eight points off a Champions League place. The decision was made at the start of the year to sack Paulo Fonseca and replace him with ex-Porto manager Sergio Conceição. Despite winning the Italian Super Cup in his first two games, things haven’t been all great, only winning two of four, scoring just four times. Serie B champions Parma’s first season back has been one of struggle, sitting just one point above the relegation zone having won just three of their last 19 league games. Expect a cagey encounter on Sunday.

Milan vs Parma Prediction 1: High line means value in going under

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, January 26th, 11:30 (UK)

Since winning the Super Cup in Saudi Arabia things haven’t gone as smoothly as expected for Milan under new boss Sergio Conceição. With a fixture list of Cagliari, Como, Girona and a Juventus side that don’t win many, more was expected than just two wins and four goals. It means Serie A and Europe have seen a total of eight goals under his tenure, an average of just 2.0 goals per-game. It’s in keeping with their season so far in the league with 50 goals in their 20 matches (For 29, Against 21) at an average of only 2.50 per-game. 6 of their last 7 at home in Serie A have finished under 2.5 goals, with Milan scoring one or zero on six occasions. 16 of their 20 league matches have finished under 3.5 goals (80%) yet this is the line for the match.

Milan have the 4th joint best defence but they only have the 9th best attack which is letting them down and why they’ve only won 8 games all season. Rivals Inter have scored 21 more goals than them! They average the 2nd most shots per-game in the league with 15.2 and as a result the 4th best expected goals (36.41) but they don’t take their chances and as a result are the 2nd biggest underachievers in the league. It looks like it won’t change quickly either, as the underperformance is mainly down to one player in Tammy Abraham who only has two goals from 7.01 xG. This is in keeping with his career across Serie A and the Premier League. In 188 appearances, he only has 54 goals from 71.91 expected (-17.91). He’s unlikely to begin this one either with just one start under Conceição so far.

Based on expected points, Parma are right where they deserve to be, 16th in the table and just above the relegation zone. They’ve suffered some poor results over the last few months, 1-1 draw at home to Venezia, two 1-0 defeats versus Genoa, defeat at home to Verona and draws v both Empoli and Como. They’ve tended to be lower scoring than the line here, with nine of their last 15 finishing under 3.5 goals. There’s already a blueprint for success with the 2-1 victory over Milan in the reverse fixture and right now the Rossoneri aren’t firing on all cylinders with the average xG across league and Europe just 2.50 under Conceição. Serie A is averaging 2.71 goals this season, very much equating to 50-50 over/under 2.5 goals, yet the line here is 3.5.

• Milan vs Parma Prediction 1: Under 3.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

Milan vs Parma Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, January 23rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Milan vs Parma Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Plenty of Milan worries

Milan have plenty of injury issues with Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Malick Thiaw, Samuel Chukwueze and Emerson all suffering muscle injuries. Alessandro Florenzi is a long-term absentee having suffered a cruciate ligament injury. Parma are likely to be without highly rated Spanish midfielder Adrian Bernabe with a hamstring injury and 21 year-old centre-back Alessandro Circati is a long-term issue with a cruciate ligament tear. Bernabe in particular is key, with him averaging the most passes per-game for Parma, whilst also helping out defensively making the joint most tackles per-game. Centre-back Botond Balogh is out with calf muscle tear and winger Adrian Benedyczak is also missing.

Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Hernandez; Fofana, Bennacer; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Morata

Parma possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Delprato, Vogliacco, Valenti, Valeri; Keita, Sohm; Almqvist, Hernani, Mihaila; Cancellieri

Match OPTA Stats: Oppose Goals

• Parma have won just three of their last 19 league games
• There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of AC Milan’s last 6 games in Serie A
• 6 of Milan’s last 7 at home in Serie A have finished under 2.5 goals
• 16 of Milan’s 20 league matches this season have finished under 3.5 goals
• 9 of Parma’s last 15 league games have finished under 3.5 goals

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