Midweek Premier League Games Promise Goals Galore

As the English top flight demanding schedule progresses into Matchday 30, attention shifts to the season’s last midweek fixtures. Traditionally, these games have often deviated from the typical weekend patterns, adding an element of unpredictability.

With all 20 teams in action across three evenings, this is an exciting opportunity to bet on high-scoring encounters. Our international football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has identified the top betting strategies for this round. 

Following the trend is a good idea

This season of the 30 midweek fixtures, only six concluded in draws, while a staggering 92 goals were scored, resulting in an average of 3.06 goals per game—surpassing the season’s average of 2.99.

Notably, 17 out of the 30 games (56.7%) featured at least three goals, and more than half (16 out of 30) saw both teams finding the back of the net. 

This trend continues from the 2023/24 season, where 63% of 29 midweek games featured at least three goals, with a total of 157 goals scored, averaging 3.41 per game, well above last season’s average.

Earlier in December, Matchday 14 witnessed 35 goals, highlighted by Newcastle and Liverpool’s thrilling 3-3 draw, Chelsea’s 5-1 victory at Southampton, and Everton’s 4-0 triumph over Wolves. 

Matchdays 21 and 27 also delivered exciting games, with West Ham edging past Fulham 3-2, Brentford rallying from 2-0 down to draw with Manchester City in stoppage time, and Manchester United staging a comeback to defeat newly promoted Ipswich 3-2.

With BETSiE, our in-house model, projecting a total of 29.8 goals for this round, there could be an opportunity to take on Bet365 offer of total goals market. 

Manchester City, for instance, is projected as the highest scorer midweek with 2.45 goals. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace, with a projected goal line of 1.96, is also poised for a strong performance as they visit bottom-of-the-table Southampton.

Back the underdogs once again?

With away wins for West Ham and Aston Villa priced at odds over 3.00, there are opportunities for strategic decisions. 

While neither the Hammers nor Unai Emery’s side may clinch all three points, a ‘double chance’ bet (win or draw) could be wise. In the Wolves vs West Ham clash, BETSiE projects a goal difference of just 0.09 in favor of the hosts, with West Ham having a 54.2% chance of covering the +0.25 Asian Handicap.

Since Graham Potter’s appointment at West Ham on 9 January, only Leicester City and Chelsea (two each) have scored fewer away goals than the East Londoners (four), but Wolves have won just one of their last four home games. 

Meanwhile, the odds for a Brighton win (1.95) against Aston Villa have been shorter only once in their last nine meetings. In November 2022, Brighton were priced at 1.74 but lost 2-1 at home, suggesting that backing the Villans to earn at least a draw could be a good strategy.

The hosts are projected to finish seventh in the league, maintaining their current two-point lead over Villa, expected to finish eighth with 58.2 points. According to BETSiE, both sides are likely to score on Wednesday, with a 24.9% probability of a draw—a favorable result for Villa, who have just qualified for the FA Cup semi-finals and have scored in all their last four away games across all competitions.

Safer Gambling

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