Liverpool’s Record in the Merseyside Derby
While Liverpool have dominated the Premier League in recent years, their record in the Merseyside derby has been far from flawless. The Reds have only secured back-to-back wins against Everton twice in the past decade, during the 2016/17 and 2021/22 seasons. The latest encounter saw Everton claim a 2-0 victory, reminding us that form can often take a backseat in derby matches, where passion and local pride can override statistics.
Liverpool’s odds for the upcoming clash are priced at 1.44, reflecting their perceived superiority. However, when you look at the head-to-head stats, there are several reasons why betting on Liverpool’s outright win might not be as safe as it seems. In fact, Everton have proven to be tough opposition, particularly at Goodison Park. Of the last 13 Premier League meetings there, nine have ended in a draw, and five of those were goalless stalemates.
The Low-Scoring Trend
One consistent theme in recent Merseyside derbies has been low-scoring affairs. Across the last ten encounters, there has been an average of just two goals per game, with many matches falling under 2.5 goals. Everton, in particular, have been involved in a series of tight, low-scoring fixtures. Prior to their 4-0 defeat to Manchester United, they had seen six consecutive Premier League games finish with fewer than 2.5 goals. Given Everton’s recent trend of low-scoring matches and Liverpool’s more controlled approach under Slot, betting on Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30 could be a smarter option.
A Cautious Approach Under Arne Slot
Arne Slot has brought a more measured and tactical style to Liverpool, focusing on a solid foundation at the back with Virgil van Dijk leading the defence. This approach has resulted in Liverpool being less free-scoring than in previous years under Jurgen Klopp. Despite sitting top of the Premier League, Liverpool have yet to blow any opponent away in the manner they did in the past. Their matches have been more controlled, and they haven’t scored more than three goals in any Premier League match so far.
This controlled style could play into the hands of a low-scoring derby. Given the early kick-off time (13:30 UK) and the congested fixture list, it’s likely that Liverpool will enter the match with a cautious approach, especially against a resilient Everton side fighting for every point. The intense atmosphere at Goodison Park, with the crowd right on top of the action, will only add to the pressure on both teams.
Betting Recommendations
While Liverpool are undoubtedly the favourites, the unpredictability of the Merseyside derby means that 1×2 betting on a Liverpool victory at 1.44 might not be the best value. Instead, consider betting on the Under 2.5 goals market, which is often a safe bet in these tightly contested derbies. The odds for Under 2.5 goals are priced at 2.30, reflecting the low-scoring trend that has characterised recent encounters. Alternatively, the Under 3.0 Asian handicap at odds of 1.81 is a good option if you want to be slightly more conservative.
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