Matthew O’Regan Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets

After a long summer watching the Euros, Copa America and the Olympics, the English domestic season is nearly upon us and so are Matthew O’Regan’s best bets.

In this preview, he analyses five markets, varying from Non-League winners, top scorers and some chunky relegation prices in the Championship and League Two.

• Win the National League North: Chester 
• Top National League Scorer: Dipo Akinyemi 
• Dual Forecast: MK Dons & Port Vale 
• To be Relegated: Watford
• To be Relegated: Cheltenham 

2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.

The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.

National League North Outright: SEALing the title

England, National League North

Phoenix club Chester FC have had a tumultuous few years since replacing the liquidated Chester City FC in 2010. The Seals have finished in the playoffs twice in the last five seasons, even finishing 3rd in the 2022/2023 season.

Last season, two wins in their final 12 games saw Chester slip out of playoff contention, eventually finishing in 10th – six points off the playoff positions. However, Chester look in better shape to challenge at the top end of the league this year.

When Chester came third in 2023, they boasted the best defensive record in the league. Only Tamworth conceded fewer goals than Calum McIntyre’s side last campaign. However, The Blues also scored the fewest goals in the top half, with a lack of a clinical goal scorer cited as a major reason why they struggled to reach the playoffs.

King Kurt’s Return

This has been addressed with aplomb. ‘King’ Kurt Willoughby is back at the club on loan from Oldham, putting Chester’s goalscoring woes firmly to bed. The 27-year-old scored 20 goals in a season in an extremely clinical spell at the Deva Stadium, and his return has epitomised the feel-good factor in Cheshire.

Chester have also added to their already strong defence, with Connell Rawlinson of Notts County, Mitch Hancox of Altrincham and Jordan Hunter of Gateshead all dropping down to play in the sixth tier. Jack Bainbridge also signs from the recently promoted Marine FC. Standing at 6’3, Bainbridge is an absolute brute of a midfielder and is exactly what Chester was lacking.

All in all, Chester have all the tools to mount a serious title charge. Defences win you titles in this division – as proven by Tamworth last season. They have arguably the best defence in the league, coupled with the goals of the returning Kurt Willoughby. Chester will be a hard team to stop this season.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Chester to win the National League North (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 9.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

National League Top Goalscorer: Menacing Minstermen

England, National League

Sticking with the non-league theme, and a top goalscoring price in the National League that appeals.

Dipo Akinyemi arrived at York with big expectations and a big reputation, after scooping the Scottish Championship golden boot and player of the year for Ayr. The Minstermen fought off a lot of stiff competition for the bulky striker, including League Two side Gillingham.

It was a disappointing 2023/2024 campaign for York considering the ambitions and the money spent, but Akinyemi still managed 15 goals in his debut season, despite his campaign being disrupted by injury.

Off the sidelines and into the goals

Last season was also one of uncertainty, with four different managers in the LNER dugout last season. However, owner Matt Uggla looks to have settled on Adam Hinshelwood as the main man and has entrusted him with re-building a squad.

Ollie Pearce – who scored 43 goals for Worthing last season links up again with Hinshelwood, as does Joe Felix who registered 15 assists last campaign. Box-to-box goal scoring Ricky Aguiar developed at The Rebels under Hinshelwood and has departed Swindon to join York.  On the wing, Ashley Nathaniel-George (Maidenhead) and Tyrese Sinclair (Rochdale) also arrive in York – further augmenting an already potent attack.

Worthing scored a mouthwatering 104 regular season goals last season, with Hinshelwood at the helm until March. The 40-year-old will bring this attacking impetus to York who will be expecting to mount a title charge. If York replicate anything close to Worthing’s attacking numbers under Hinshelwood, expect Akinyemi to be at the top of the goalscoring charts.

• Ante-Post Selection 2: Dipo Akinyemi National League Top scorer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 21.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (half stake ‘win’ half stake ‘each way’)

League 2 Dual Forecast: Two Standouts in League 2

England, League 2

League Two looks an intriguing year this year, with Wrexham, Stockport and Mansfield out of the picture. MK Dons were the trio’s closest competitors, finishing fourth in the league and eight points off the automatic promotion places.

MK then capitulated in the playoffs, losing 8-1 on aggregate to perennial underdogs Crawley. As heart-wrenching as that drubbing may be, MK didn’t fret and looked to recruit early and back Mike Williamson in a title charge.

Williamson was appointed in October after impressing for National League side Gateshead. MK won 52.6% of their games under the 40-year-old as they cemented their playoff position and made a push for the title.

Now with his first pre-season and the chance to build his squad how he likes, Williamson can really push his side on.

Williamson the architect

While top scorer Max Dean was sold to French side Toulouse, Callum Hendry was snapped up from Salford after 0.51 goals per 90 last campaign. Matt Dennis has shown smatterings of goal scoring ability in his short career thus far but has yet to nail down a starting berth at MK Dons after struggling for form. However, the 22-year-old has been scoring freely in pre-season and could be a real talisman, after scoring four goals from four starts last season.

Whoever starts up front for MK Dons will have a strong cavalry of midfielders supplying them. Creative maestro Stephen Wearne followed Williamson in January and recorded six assists and ten goals in just 12 starts. Vice-captain Alex Gilbey registered ten assists and 13 goals in a dominant season.

Adding to this abundance of talent is Connor Lemonheigh-Evans who recorded 11 goal contributions in 26 starts last season and Tommy Leigh who got 13 in 37 starts for a struggling Accrington Stanley. Anchoring the midfield will be Liam Kelly who signs after a standout season in Crawley’s midfield.

The defence has also been bolstered heavily. Laurence Maguire, brother of England and Manchester United stalwart Harry, joins from Chesterfield after a dominant spell on loan at Crawley. Cultured ball-playing centre half and Crewe captain Luke Offord joins, as well as Sam Sherring, who turned down a new deal at Northampton and an array of League One offers to drop down a league. A back three with Maguire in the centre and the ball-playing ability of Offord and Sherring either side will be the envy of many a League Two club.

With the sheer quality MK possess all over the pitch, they should be finishing in the top 2.

A Valiant second-placed push

Joining them in the Top 2 I predict Port Vale, who will be looking to bounce back to League One at the first time of asking. Darren Moore was appointed in February with the aim of steering the Valiants to safety.  However, the 50-year-old won just two of his 17 games in charge as Vale were soundly relegated.

 

Still, the Vale hierarchy have kept faith in Moore and have entrusted him with a healthy budget to compete at the top end.

The signing of George Byers from Sheffield Wednesday is a real statement signing, with the midfield lynchpin capable of playing at a much higher level. The signing of industrious Ryan Croasdale from Stockport will allow Byers and the creative Ben Garrity to flourish.

While Jayden Stockley is yet to re-discover his Exeter form, he provides experience and is an able deputy to the exciting strike force Moore is amassing. Ruari Paton was signed from Queens Park in Scotland where he scored 17 goals in 36 games last season. He will be partnered by Lorant Tolaj, a big, bruising striker signed after 19 goals for National League side Aldershot.

Portsmouth cult hero Ronan Curtis arrives on free after the expiry of his short-term contract at AFC Wimbledon, where he contributed to seven goals in 10 starts. Curtis is another player capable of playing at a higher level, so Moore will be ecstatic to have secured his services.

MK Dons and Port Vale look the two to beat in a weaker-than-usual-looking League Two, so 33.00 represents great value for a top 2 finish for both.

• Ante-Post Selection 3: MK Dons and Port Vale dual forecast (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 33.00
• Bookmaker: skybet
• Stake: 5/10

Championship Relegation: Hornets losing their sting

England, Championship.

The Championship is always labelled as the most entertaining and unpredictable league in the world. While I agree with this sentiment, it makes betting on it a landmine for punters. However, it can also present scope for value with so many teams vying for promotion to the Premier League.

Despite never really being in danger of relegation, Watford finished the 2023/2024 campaign in 15th position, just six points clear of the drop in a congested bottom half. Since then, the Hornets have lost dominant midfielder, Ismael Kone, with star attacker Yaser Asprilla and club captain Wesley Hoedt heavily linked with moves away.

Asset stripping

The main worry for the Vicarage Road faithful is the perceived asset stripping from the Pozzo family that own the club, with full focus appearing to be on Italian club Udinese. A clear example of this is the signing of young centre back Antonio Tikvic – who will most likely struggle with the physicality of the Championship, being brought in on a season long loan. This move will only benefit Udinese long term, with Watford tasked with the job of developing an extremely raw player for the season.

While the signings of Rocco Vata and Mamadou Doumbia are promising for the future, their immediate signings flatter to deceive, with Moussa Sissoko re-joining the club and Jonathan Bond arriving to add depth in their side, and with owners who have seemingly turned their attention to Udinese, relegation is a distinct possibility for the Hornets.

• Ante-Post Selection 4: Watford to be relegated (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 7.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

League 2 Relegation: Relegated Robins

England, League 2

Another side on a seemingly downward trajectory is Cheltenham. The Robins have had a meteoric rise in recent years and enjoyed a three-year spell in League One, which ended in a drab relegation – despite Darrell Clarke’s brave effort to save them. Ultimately, the 46-year-old was brought in too late, with the Cheltenham hierarchy sure to be ruing the decision not to bring him in sooner.

Clarke’s efforts alerted Barnsley who were quick to appoint him as new manager at the close of last season. His replacement is Michael Flynn, who made a name for himself at Newport County but has flattered to deceive in his roles at Swindon and Walsall since.

Off the pitch, Gary Johnson has been appointed as the director of football despite a disastrous spell at Torquay, in which the Gulls plummeted down to the National League South and faced real financial advisory.

Traditional in his ways, Johnson has looked to have recruited players that have played under him or Flynn – an indictment of the lack of progressive thinking from the 68-year-old.

Johnson question marks

Losing players to teams in higher divisions is to be expected after relegation, with Robert Street (Lincoln), Lewis Freestone (Stevenage), Luke Southwood (Bolton) and George Lloyd (Shrewsbury) all departing. However, the departures of club captain Sean Long and experienced midfielder Liam Sercombe to Forest Green of the National League and Elliot Bonds joining fellow League 2 club Fleetwood is cause for concern.

As ever with relegation, The Robins need reinforcements to freshen up the squad. The worry is, however, that Gary Johnson has not shown the capabilities in recent years. The Robins are lacking sufficient quality, and with the off-field issues persisting, it could be a long season for Cheltenham.

• Ante-Post Selection 5: Cheltenham to be Relegated (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 15.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Matthew O’Regan’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets Odds via bet365 as at 00:00 , 31st July 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.

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