Marseille’s Struggles Create Betting Opportunity

Marseille had lofty ambitions coming into the season, hiring Roberto De Zerbi and overhauling their squad. However, things have started to unravel in recent weeks, and they are facing a battle to qualify for the Champions League. 

Scott Thornton analyses Marseille’s season so far, what’s gone wrong and how bettors can make the most of their poor run of form.  

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Marseille’s Slump in Form 

PSG are the dominant force in French football. They have won 11 of the last 13 Ligue 1 titles and are coasting towards another triumph in the current campaign. Marseille, looked as though they could challenge Les Parisiens at one stage but things have gone horribly wrong since their 5-1 win over St Etienne in the middle of February. 

Marseille have been in the top four since matchday two but they are in danger of dropping outside of the Champions League places thanks to a poor run of form. Les Olympiens have lost four of their last five league matches, conceding 10 and scoring just four. They were beaten 3-1 by Reims, who are two points above the relegation zone, last weekend. Samba Diawara’s side had just 20% possession but were able to make Marseille pay on the counter. Vulnerability when losing the ball has been an issue for De Zerbi’s men of late. 

The underlying data suggests the warning signs have been there for quite some time. Marseille were drastically overperforming their xG (expected goals) in the first half of the season. Their recent slump means they have reverted to what the data expects, scoring 54 goals from an xG of 54.23 Les Olympiens’ attacking struggles have coincided with Mason Greenwood’s troubles. The Englishman remains the second-top scorer in Ligue 1 but his goals have papered over the cracks and there is talk that the attacker will be sold in the summer with his manager questioning his work ethic.

The numbers also suggest Marseille should have conceded more. De Zerbi’s side have conceded 36 goals from an xGA (expected goals against) of 41.75. They also rank 6th in the division for xPTS (expected points) with 44.3. The likes of Lille and Nice, who rank above Les Olympiens in the xPTS table could overtake them in the actual table in the weeks to come. 

Still Hope if De Zerbi Can Turn it Around Quickly

Marseille have an easier run-in than the teams around them in the table. Their remaining opponents have picked up an average of 1.24 points per game. Only Lens faces teams that have picked up fewer points in the 27 league matches played thus far. Les Olympiens face a Toulouse in their next match. Les Violets haven’t won any of their last 11 games against Marseille, losing nine. De Zerbi’s side won 3-1 when the teams met earlier in the season.

BETSiE, our in-house projection model, offers Marseille further encouragement. It predicts that the team will finish the season with 61 points, enough to secure a place in the Champions League qualifying round.

Despite the positives, these are worrisome times for Marseille. De Zerbi’s tweaks in a bid to rekindle the flame of their early season form have disrupted the team’s cohesion. Luiz Felipe and Chancel Mbemba will miss a lengthy period through injury, weakening an already shaky defence. The club have sacked three managers in the past three seasons. They may need to sack another if this season ends in calamity and the club miss out on a place in the top four. 

Nice Poised to Take Advantage of Les Olympiens’ Woes

Just five points separate 2nd from 7th in Ligue 1 but Nice looks to be the value pick for a top-four finish. The INEOS-owned club are currently 4th in the league, just two points behind Marseille. They finished 5th in the previous campaign and are looking to go one better this time around. 

Nice were narrowly beaten 2-1 when they visited Monaco last weekend. They took the lead in the 41st minute thanks to a goal from Jeremie Boga but were unable to hold on. Les Aiglons have now gone three matches without a win but they have home advantage against a Nantes side that have won just three of their 16 competitive away matches this season.

Since the start of the calendar year, Nice have picked up the third most points in the top tier of French football, behind only PSG and Strasbourg. They have earned 23 points from 12 league matches, scoring an average of 1.92 goals per game in the process. Franck Haise’s side have also lost just one of their 13 home games, which will serve them well as we get into the business end of the season. 

With Marseille enduring a turbulent patch, now is the time for their Ligue 1 rivals to step up and take advantage. Les Olympiens’ season started with so much promise, but it is quickly descending into chaos. Can Nice make the most of the opportunity this has brought about?

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