Marseille's Ligue 1 Betting Value: Is Their Runners-Up Spot Sustainable?

Olympique de Marseille (OM) are having an eventful season under Roberto De Zerbi, who has taken the reins after a tumultuous 2023/2024 campaign. Although the club has shown significant improvements, particularly away from home, a closer look at their performances suggests that there are underlying risks for bettors looking to back Marseille for a top-two finish.

Marseille’s Strong Away Form

One of the standout features of OM’s season has been their dominance on the road. With 18 points from 7 away matches, Marseille are currently Ligue 1’s top away team, a sharp contrast to their poor away form last season. Wins against strong sides like RC Lens and Olympique Lyon have propelled them to their highest-ever away points tally at this stage of the season. Last year, they finished with just 14 away points, one of the worst records in the league.

However, this impressive away form should be tempered by the fact that Marseille’s overall tally is still relatively modest. With just 26 points from 13 games, their dominance on the road has not yet translated to consistency at home or across the board.

Struggles at Home

Stade Vélodrome, once a fortress for Marseille, has become a psychological barrier this season. Despite their passionate supporters, OM have only managed two home wins in 2024/2025, with their home form failing to live up to expectations. De Zerbi has called it a “mental block,” and this issue could be significant when it comes to betting on their long-term prospects. The squad has undergone major changes, with 13 new players joining in the summer, and their adaptation to De Zerbi’s tactical demands is still a work in progress.

Overperformance or Fortune?

Marseille’s overachievement this season has raised questions among statisticians. Their expected goals (xG) data indicates that they are outperforming their expected performance by 8.62 points, scoring 8.32 more goals than anticipated. Despite having one of the best offensive records in the league, their defensive frailties have been exposed in heavy defeats to teams like Auxerre and PSG.

While Marseille’s current position as runners-up in Ligue 1 is impressive, their xG figures suggest that this could be a statistical anomaly. If their performances regress toward the mean, the risk of losing their current standing is high, which should serve as a warning to bettors.

Betting Value and Future Predictions

Our in-house model predicts a third-place finish for Marseille, with 59.2 points expected by the end of the season, aligning with their performance metrics from last season. Despite this, there is still a solid 37.4% chance of them finishing in the top three, which would secure a place in the UEFA Champions League.

However, betting odds on Marseille’s top-three finish at 1.73 imply little value, especially considering their current statistical overperformance. Bettors might find better opportunities in the “Winner Without PSG” market, where odds range from 2.62 to 3.75, offering higher potential returns. Monaco, their main rival for second place, remains the favourite to finish just behind Paris Saint-Germain, despite a narrow loss to Marseille’s rivals last weekend.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.