Manchester United vs Bournemouth Best Bet Preview

New Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim immediately endeared himself to the long suffering Utd fans with a comeback win against rivals Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in the derby. It looked like more doom and gloom for the red side of Manchester until two goals in the last two minutes snatched victory.

Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola is doing a terrific job for the South Coast club and has them 6th in the league, just three points off the Champions League places, having already beaten Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham this season. Expect a tough game for the Red Devils at Old Trafford.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth Prediction 1: Oppose Amorim

England, Premier League, Sunday, December 22nd, 14:00 (UK)

Ruben Amorim has got off to a positive start as the new Manchester United manager with four wins, one draw and two defeats since joining at the end of November. However, two of those wins came in the Europa League against Viktoria Plzen 2-1 and Bodo/Glimt 3-2 where they were priced only 1.50 and 1.20 respectively. He picked a 1-1 draw at Ipswich in his opening game at 1.65 before beating Everton 4-0 at 1.60. Back-to-back defeats against Arsenal (2-0 at 6.75) and Nottingham Forest (2-3 at 1.70) followed before the last-gasp derby victory at City when priced at 5.50. There’s been a shift in approach since Amorim replaced Erik ten Hag. The former Sporting boss has set up in his preferred 3-4-2-1 formation as opposed to the 4-2-3-1 the Dutchman employed.

It’s only five Premier League games into his tenure but the xG data gives us an early indication of how things have changed. Under ten Hag, Utd were the 10th best team based on expected points, scoring 12 goals in 11 games from 19.04 expected and conceding 12 from 19.14 expected. So they were underachieving in-front of goal but also a combination of poor opposition finishing and excellent defending meant they were overachieving defensively. Since Amorim took over, Utd are the 8th best team based on expected points, scoring 9 goals from 6.80 xG and conceding 7 from 7.01 xG. So Utd have gone from underperforming at both ends, to now scoring more lower quality chances, whilst reducing the number of chances they are giving up. However, they were odds on for three of those games, so the opposition level needs to be taken into account, and expected points only paints it as going from the 10th best team to the 8th based team, so there is still work to be done.

Based on the underlying data, Bournemouth are having a fantastic season. They’re averaging the 2nd most shots in the league at 16.9, which sees them creating the 4th most expected goals at 35.06. As a result, Bournemouth are ranked 3rd based on expected points and are a dangerous side. At odds on, Man Utd look too short here at 1.80. Bournemouth came to Old Trafford last season and won 3-0 under Iraola so Old Trafford holds no fear for them and backing them to avoid defeat at the price is the way to go. The Cherries will also have the week off to prepare whilst Man Utd have to go to Tottenham on Thursday night just three days before in the League Cup.

• Manchester United vs Bournemouth best bet: Bournemouth double chance (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

Manchester United vs Bournemouth best bet odds via bet365 as at 12:00, December 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Attacking absences for both?

Mason Mount lasted just 12 minutes of the Manchester derby in his latest fitness comeback whilst Noussair Mazraoui was seen limping after the game. Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho were seemingly left out due to discipline issues and it remains to be seen whether they’ll be included here. Despite Utd’s poor season, they’ve scored seven goals between them – 33% of Utd’s overall total – so Amorim is taking a chance leaving them out completely. For Bournemouth attacking wise, Marcus Tavernier and Luis Sinisterra both continue to be out whilst defender Marcos Senesi is likely to be out for 3-4 months due to surgery.

100+ words on most recent Team News for each side

Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Onana; de Ligt, Magure, Martinez; Diallo, Mainoo, Ugarte, Dalot; Fernandes, Zirkzee; Hojlund

Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Kepa; Smith, Zabarnyi, Hujsen, Kerkez; Christie, Cook; Semenyo, Kluivert, Ouattara; Evanilson

Match Stats: Bournemouth to be backed

• Ruben Amorim has just two wins in five Premier League games
• Bournemouth just three defeats in their last 11 Premier League games
• Bournemouth ranked 3rd on expected points – Utd ranked 8th under Amorim

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