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Boxing Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
The cynosure of the Premier League takes place on Sunday and we have you covered for Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures.
Only one point separates the two remaining Champions League sides heading into this fixture but with Liverpool in action in Sunday’s early kick off the pair could begin the match in the Reds’ wake.
Arsenal edged out the first encounter at the Emirates but a double looks unlikely with the visitors priced at 4.00 to complete the double. James Cantrill takes a look at the betting.
BETSiE’s Expected Goals Prediction:
| Home | Away | Home xG | Away xG | Margin | Total xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | Arsenal | 1.09 | 1.23 | -0.14 | 2.32 |
- Manchester City vs Arsenal Tip 1: Manchester City Win
- Manchester City vs Arsenal Tip 2: Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer
- Manchester City vs Arsenal Tip 3: Kevin De Bruyne To Score or Assist
Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction 1: HUGE Price
England, Premier League, Sunday, March 31st, 16:30 (UK)
Manchester City are a shade of odds on as I write. What the…
For context, in games at the Etihad, they went off at 1.72 against Liverpool, 1.66 against Arsenal last April and 1.68 against Liverpool in the same month of last season, games they won 3-1 and 4-1 respectively.
In the Community Shield at the start of the season, a neutral venue, the Cityzens went off at 1.95 and in the Champions League final they were a measly 1.53 to beat Inter.
So, to say there is juice in their current best price of 1.95 is a bit of an understatement in my opinion.
Pep Guardiola should also have most of his big hitters available. Kevin de Bruyne was pictured in training on Monday, Erling Haaland is fit and Kyle Walker should be given the green light after he was forced off against Brazil.
A caveat, of course, is the magnitude of the game and this sometimes brings out the worst in Pep.
It is also worth noting Arsenal beat City in the reverse (below) but this price simply cannot be scoffed at.
- Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction 1: Manchester City Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: Betfred
- Stake: 10/10
Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction 2: Simply Too Big
I don’t know what is going on with these prices to be honest but another standout is Erling Haaland’s at odds against to score anytime.
The big Norwegian is 2.10 with Sky Bet and bet365 but generally is even more money with most firms, which is absolutely worth taking.
He has scored 54 Premier League goals in two seasons and 58 appearances, that is a goals per90 average of over 1.01.
In fact, based on his career goals per 90 (1.01), he should never be over evens to bag, and although that is a pretty basic approach, I think it is the only thing that needs to be considered when dipping into this market with this player.
Haaland boasts a decent record against the Gunners as well netting in two of his three league appearances against them.
It is also worth noting the clean sheet in the reverse was the first in nine league clashes between Pep and Mikel Arteta.
- Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction 2: Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365, Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction 3: Midfield Maestro
Kevin De Bruyne is a man who relishes this big occasion.
He grabbed an assist at Anfield and one in the Community Shield final this term if the latter can be considered a big occasion.
Last term, he set up two goals in the FA Cup final, another two in the second leg of the Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid, another in the previous round at Bayern, a goal and three assists in the two games vs Liverpool, and three assists in the league meetings with Manchester United.
The best part is against Arsenal KDB had a hand in three goals and two assists in the top flight last term, scoring three and setting up another two.
At 2.88, backing the Belgian maestro to score OR assist is another comprehensively big price.
If you needed convincing further, across his domestic career his G+A per 90 average is 0.74 which directly translates to a price of 1.35 and this goes a little way to explaining Betvictor’s odds on price of 1.60.
- Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction 3: Kevin De Bruyne To Score or Assist (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.88
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction odds via bet365, Sky bet as at 11:30, March 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Team News and Possible Lineups: Shrewd Moves?
Unsurprisingly, both squads were ravaged by international duty.
Interestingly though, key players of both sides were withdrawn at some point. Bukayo Saka left the England camp before the first friendly and both Kyle Walker and John Stones were withdrawn in the first half of the friendlies with Brazil and Belgium.
Assuming the pair of Man City players are fit, I expect Pep Guardiola to name the same XI as he did at Anfield.
Arteta is keeping his cards close to his chest but this game could come too soon for Gabriel Martinelli who missed the games with Brentford and Porto prior to the break.
Manchester City possible starting lineup: Ederson; Walker, Akanji, Ake; Rodri, Stones; Foden, Silva, De Bruyne, Alvarez; Haaland
Arsenal possible starting lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Magalhaes, Kiwior; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Trossard
The Predicted Manchester City vs Arsenal League Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Manchester City vs Arsenal, currently 3rd vs 1st, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 91.3 | 31.5 | 59.7 | 86.2 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 89.3 | 36.6 | 52.7 | 85.8 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 84.7 | 38.1 | 46.6 | 83.6 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.5 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 73.7 | 57.6 | 16.1 | 67.8 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 76.8 | 61.2 | 15.6 | 66.4 |
| 6 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 53.7 | 57.7 | -4.0 | 58.6 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 38 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 68.3 | 62.6 | 5.7 | 56.5 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 38 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 15.6 | 78.7 | 65.9 | 12.8 | 55.0 |
| 9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 63.5 | 59.7 | 3.8 | 54.4 |
| 10 | West Ham | 38 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 13.8 | 58.9 | 67.8 | -8.9 | 54.1 |
| 11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 16.0 | 54.6 | 62.0 | -7.4 | 51.8 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 14.3 | 58.2 | 66.3 | -8.1 | 50.7 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 56.8 | 58.7 | -2.0 | 49.8 |
| 14 | Brentford | 38 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 19.9 | 56.5 | 68.3 | -11.8 | 40.0 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 44.9 | 64.4 | -19.5 | 40.0 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 16.8 | 44.2 | 54.0 | -9.8 | 39.1 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 46.6 | 62.5 | -15.9 | 33.8 |
| 18 | Luton | 38 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 22.8 | 53.4 | 81.4 | -28.0 | 29.8 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 24.6 | 39.2 | 78.1 | -38.9 | 25.3 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 34.8 | 93.6 | -58.8 | 22.7 |
Match OPTA Stats: City so strong at home
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 38 home games in all competitions (W33 D5) since a 2-1 loss against Brentford in November 2022. It’s their second longest run without defeat at home in their history, after a run of 42 between December 1919 and November 1921.
- Arsenal have won their last eight Premier League games, scoring 33 goals and conceding just four. The Gunners have had three runs of 9+ consecutive victories within a single season in the competition, with each one coming during their title winning campaigns – 10 in 1997-98, 13 in 2001-02 and nine in 2003-04.
- Manchester City have scored in each of their last 57 home games in all competitions, their longest such scoring streak in club history. The last Premier League side to score in more consecutive home games were Manchester United (a run of 61 between September 2010 and November 2012).
- Kevin De Bruyne has scored more goals against Arsenal in all competitions (8) than he has against any other opponent for Manchester City. He also has five assists against the Gunners, only being involved in more goals for the Citizens overall against Southampton (15 – 5 goals, 10 assists).
- Arsenal have lost each of their last seven Premier League away games against Man City. They last had a longer losing run on the road in the league against Leeds, losing eight in a row between 1958 and 1968.
Manchester City Fixtures: Business End
- Vs Aston Villa (H)
- Vs Crystal Palace (A)
- Vs Real Madrid (A)
- Vs Luton Town (A)
- Vs Real Madrid (H)
Arsenal Fixtures: Crunch Time
- Vs Luton (H)
- Vs Brighton (A)
- Vs Bayern (H)
- Vs Aston Villa (H)
- Vs Bayern (A)
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