Man United are the real value bet in the Europa League

The Europa League remains the last opportunity for redemption in an otherwise disappointing season for the three British clubs still competing. 

Manchester United, Tottenham, and Rangers have all fallen short on the domestic front, and with their respective quarter-final ties finely poised, Thursday’s return legs represent the biggest fixture of the campaign for each team. 

Among them, only Ruben Amorim’s side are currently favoured to progress to the semi-finals. Despite being on track for their worst Premier League season in history, the Red Devils hold significant value in Europe, as European football expert Daniele Fisichella explores.

Unbeaten record speaks volume

Winless in their last four matches and closer to the relegation zone than the top four in England, Manchester United remain the favourites to lift the Europa League trophy, according to BETSiE, which gives them a 44.7% chance. 

With 14 league defeats this season, United have equalled their highest-ever loss tally in a single Premier League campaign, matching last season’s total. The last time they suffered more was in the 1989-90 top-flight season, with 16 defeats.

Despite this poor record and their 2-2 draw in the first leg against Lyon, United still hold the highest probability of victory this Thursday (67%) among all the quarter-finalists. They are the only British club still unbeaten in Europe this season, with six wins and five draws—a remarkable feat in a tumultuous campaign. The last time the Red Devils started a European campaign unbeaten in their first 11 matches, they reached the 2010/11 Champions League final, where they were defeated 3-1 by Barcelona.

However, bookmakers seem to underestimate Amorim’s side, assigning them odds that translate to a 59.5% chance of victory at Old Trafford. Both the hosts and Lyon boast the highest xG per game among the remaining teams in the competition, and given that United have kept just six clean sheets at home in all competitions this season, the match is unlikely to be a low-scoring affair. 

The French side, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last 12 away Europa League games (W9 D3), a streak that dates back to a 1-0 loss to Atalanta in December 2017. Given Manchester United’s high projected win probability, betting on them with a -0.75 Asian Handicap offers great value; if United win by just a one-goal margin, you’d win half your stake.

 ‘Leaky’ Spurs might head out

The other two British clubs in action, Tottenham and Rangers, are not favoured to qualify, with Ange Postecoglou’s side given a 43% chance by BETSiE, while the Scottish club is assigned just 15.6%, slightly less than Lyon’s 15.8%. 

Tottenham have advanced from only one of their previous 10 knockout stage ties in European competition after failing to win the first leg at home and have managed just one clean sheet in their last 19 away matches in the Europa League, a 1-0 victory over Qarabag in November 2015. 

These statistics spell danger for Spurs, who have lost their last four away games in all competitions and have not kept a clean sheet since 2 February. On the other hand, Eintracht Frankfurt average over two goals per home match in the competition, having scored 55 in 27 home games, and have won their last three matches at Deutsche Bank Park. 

According to BETSiE, this match is the most likely of the quarter-finals to end in a draw, at 27.0%. Therefore, a prudent bet would be an Asian Handicap of -0.25 for the hosts, meaning if the match does end in a draw, you’ll only lose half your stake.

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