Madrid Derby Draw Opens Up La Liga Outright Betting Angles

Real Madrid maintained a one-point lead atop La Liga after a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid at the weekend.

Only two points separate the top three teams after Barcelona have won three league matches in a row. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Atleti Keep Chances Alive

Saturday evening saw the Madrid derby end in a draw for the fifth consecutive time. Atletico Madrid were in the ascendancy throughout the first half, with Carlo Ancelotti’s Real once again unable to control midfield. 

For all the controversy around Atleti’s first-half penalty, this result felt like a fair reflection of the match. It leaves the La Liga title race beautifully poised. Real are one point ahead of Atleti, and two ahead of Barcelona, who have broken free of their mid-season slump with three consecutive league wins. Fourth-placed Athletic Club are only six points off top, despite their 201.00 price for the title at bet365.

Real might be in first place, but their position is far from secure. Their star-studded attack still leaves them vulnerable in midfield too often. Ancelotti has been left using a makeshift defence, with Antonio Rudiger, Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal, and David Alaba sidelined. Lucas Vazquez is also unavailable for Tuesday’s match against Manchester City with a hamstring problem. 

Atleti have two favourable opponents to come in Celta Vigo and Valencia. Unlike Real, they don’t have the added strain of the Champions League knockout playoffs, allowing them to concentrate on La Liga action for the next couple of weeks. The same goes for Barca, who are unbeaten in 11 matches with nine wins in that period.

xG Favours Barcelona

Not only are Barcelona resurgent after their slump through November and December, but they have by far the best expected goal difference per 90 in La Liga at +1.30. Real (+1.05) and Atleti (+0.81) are comfortably ahead of fifth-ranked Villarreal.

The latest BETSiE La Liga projections have Barcelona 1.3 points behind Real, despite scoring 20 more goals. Although they are sitting second and one point off the lead, Atleti are third in the projections, predicted to collect 29 points from their remaining 15 league matches.

The draw on Saturday was a blow to Real’s chances. Los Blancos’ next five La Liga fixtures are against teams currently in the top 11, and their schedule will be even more demanding if they get past Manchester City in the Champions League. 

This is a true three-horse race. El Clasico on 11th May and Atleti’s clash with Barca next month will go a long way to deciding who is crowned La Liga champion this spring.

Steer Clear of Real

The loss to Espanyol and draw with Atletico have made it impossible to see any value in Real at their current price. The combination of defensive issues and an unbalanced attack make Real too flawed. 

Barca – scorers of 35 goals in nine matches – have been shaky defensively at times. Hansi Flick’s side have comfortably the best underlying metrics, though, and BETSiE only has them narrowly behind Real. The 3.00 price on Barcelona to win the league is appealing. 

This could be a good time to back Atleti, too. Their odds are bound to shorten in the next couple of weeks with routine wins expected. Saturday might have been a missed opportunity, but avoiding defeat keeps Diego Simeone’s side firmly in the mix. 

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