Lorient vs Brest Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

We’re back to Ligue 1 for a Lorient vs Brest prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. The lunchtime top-flight kickoff this Sunday comes from the west coast of Brittany where two fierce local rivals meet at Le Stade Moustoir.

Prediction: Lorient 1-1 Brest

Brest have been performing above expectations all season and still sit in the dizzy heights of second place. They face a Lorient side who have been battling relegation for most of the campaign but who have improved significantly since the winter break. Local pride is at stake along with a result which affects both ends of the table. French expert Steve Wyss provides the best insights, predictions and value bets for the game.

1. Lorient vs Brest Tip 1: Under 2.5 Goals
2. Lorient vs Brest Tip 2: Under 9 Asian Corners
3. Lorient vs Brest Tip 3: Mohamed Bamba Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Lorient vs Brest Prediction 1: Local derby could be a low scoring battle

France, Ligue 1, Sunday, March 31st 12:00 (UK)

There is a big rivalry between these two Brittany teams. Located on the western coast of northwest France, there has historically not been too much between either side, with perhaps Lorient edging things in the last decade. Brest have been enjoying by far the better season though and still sits in the dizzy heights of second position. The actual result of this match is difficult to call, but the way Brest games have gone recently, then, the natural inclination is to look at the under-goal line, which is set at 2.25. Six of the last seven Brest fixtures have gone under 2.5 goals and they have the joint best defensive record in Ligue 1.

The visitors are very organized defensively but have overachieved at the back with an xGA of 28.94, which has only been converted into 20 conceded goals. Goalkeeper Marco Bizot continues to be very underrated, but he makes regular saves, and is one of the main reasons for Brest’s success. Lorient have been better away from home and have lost both of their last two home games 0-1 to Nantes and Lyon respectively. They have been stifled for space at home on their smaller pitch and could struggle to create that many big chances here. Nobody will really want to lose and the local derby nature of the fixture might lead to a low-scoring match. Taking the under 2.25 Asian goal looks like the right call and is my most confident selection of this match.

• Lorient vs Brest Prediction 1: Under 2.25 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.92
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Lorient vs Brest Prediction 2: Lack of goalmouth action could reduce corner numbers

Both sides rank in the bottom third for corners obtained in Ligue 1 this season with Lorient bottom of the pile at just 3.40 per 90 mins. Corner numbers can sometimes be situational so it’s a surprise to see them with so few when you consider the fact they’ve been chasing games regularly. Lorient fixtures can be congested and narrow with attacking players looking to cut inside a lot which might explain this, and the same can be said about Brest.

For a team second in the Ligue 1 table, the average number of corners obtained per game of 4.30 is pretty low. It is no surprise to see Brest concede just 3.80 in each fixture though. They have an excellent defence that is difficult to penetrate, and they have an authoritative goalkeeper who claims a lot of crosses. Most Brest matches are quite tactical and more slow-paced. They don’t tend to get sucked into many end-to-end type contests, which again might explain the low corner numbers in their games.

Lorient have switched to a 3-4-2-1 system and Brest play a 4-2-3-1 with inside forwards cutting inside. This probably won’t be a frantic game with a lot of the ball in the middle of the park. Taking under 9 Asian corners looks like quite a solid play when you consider the tactics and the seasonal stats from both teams. We have the push as an option if exactly nine corners are taken.

• Lorient vs Brest Prediction 2: Under 9 Asian Corners (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Lorient vs Brest Prediction 3: In-form Bamba good to hit the target

Lorient didn’t have a single shot on target in their most recent home game when they lost 0-2 at home to Lyon. That is a concern, but the price on their leading striker, Mohamed Bamba, just to test the keeper once or more looks too big at odds of 1.72. Bamba has been a revelation since joining Lorient in January from Austrian side Wolfsberger for around £5m. He’s already scored six goals in 8 appearances, including 5 in his first four games, which set a record for any new Ligue 1 signing. He is a juicy 4.33 to score anytime, but against a solid defence like Brest then taking a safe bet looks a wiser option.

Since joining Lorient, Bamba averages 2.50 shots per game so he’s been firing in plenty of attempts. Ten of his 15 shots have been on target which is an exceptional rate and just shows the sort of red hot form he’s been in. Brest are difficult opponents but in a home match any starting striker should be hitting the target at least once. He will get at least one half decent opportunity and I think he’s worth backing to test Bizot in the Brest net.

• Lorient vs Brest Prediction 3: Mohamed Bamba Over 0.5 Shots on Target (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Lorient vs Brest Prediction odds via bet365 as at 01:00, March 27th 2024. Odds may now differ.

Lorient vs Brest Team News and Possible Lineups: Brest maintaining healthy status

Lorient have long term injuries to the likes of Igor Silva, Bonke Innocent and Quentin Boisgard. Defender Gideon Kalulu returns from suspension but Aiyegun Tosin is banned after getting sent off in the previous game.

Brest have been very healthy all season and have no major injury concerns at the time of writing. Midfielder Pierre Lees-Melou is suspended though. They should lineup in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation and the only real question is whether Satriano or Steve Mounie start upfront.

Lorient possible starting lineup: Mvogo, Toure, Laporte, Adjei, Le Bris, Bakayoko, Abergel, Katseris, Ponceau, Kari, Bamba

Brest possible starting lineup: Bizot, Locko, Brassier, Chardonnet, Lala, Martin, Magnetti, Pereira Lage, Camara, Del Castillo, Mounie

The Predicted Lorient vs Brest Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lorient vs Brest, currently 15th vs 2nd fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Lorient vs Brest Standings Prediction

Match Stats: Brest defense continues to shine

• Brest won the reverse fixture 4-0 but Lorient beat Brest twice last season by a 2-1 scoreline.
• Brest have the joint best defensive record in Ligue 1 and conceded just 20 goals in 26 games.
• 17 out of 26 Brest fixtures have ended with under 2.5 goals this season
• Lorient have averaged 1.55 points per game since the winter break which is a big improvement.
• Brest have obtained the fourth most cards in Ligue 1 this season.

Lorient Fixtures: Crucial ‘6 pointer’ next week

• Vs Montpellier (A)
• Vs Nice (A)
• Vs PSG (H)
• Vs Toulouse (H)
• Vs Lens (A)

Brest Fixtures: More local derbies upcoming for Brest

• Vs Metz (H)
• Vs Lyon (A)
• Vs Monaco (H)
• Vs Rennes (A)
• Vs Nantes (H)

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