Lille vs Rennes Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

After a full house last week, bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, joins host Daniel Jenkins for another couple of tips for this weekend’s action. The boys pick apart the Manchester Derby and discuss the gloom amongst the doom at Torquay United.

The tips look at all three Premier League title contender’s chances on the weekend either side of a surprise quiz that may cost Sam his reputation as a tipster…

• You can watch the video of this podcast on our YouTube channel
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Lille vs Rennes Tip 1: Fresher Rennes can leave with at least a point

France, Ligue 1, Sunday 10th March, 16:00 (UK)

If Rennes realistically harbors hopes of finishing in the top four, then they need to come here and win. The gap between themselves and Lille is now 6 points after they suffered a shock home defeat to Lorient last week. That loss ended a sensational run of 13 consecutive unbeaten games domestically, which just shows how strong their form has been since the re-appointment of Julien Stephan as manager. Rennes will feel they should never have lost last week, and they dominated a large part of the game. Occasional defeats can happen, though, especially in local derbies where strange results can occur.

On the face of things this looks like a formidable test. Lille have only lost one home game all season and won 8 out of 11 in front of their own fans. Even more impressively, Les Dogues have conceded only four times here which is the best defensive record of any home team. I think this is a good spot to oppose Lille though and back Rennes on a +0.5 Asian Handicap.

As mentioned, this is a bigger game for the visitors, and their seasonal objectives of a top-four finish are on the line. Lille play on Thursday night away to Sturm Graz in the UEFA Conference League. That is a serious competition for LOSC in which they could go deep. Lille have only won 3 times out of 8 after playing in midweek European games and might be flat after their trip to Austria. Rennes have the quality and class required to at least draw this encounter.

• Lille vs Rennes Tip 1: Rennes +0.5 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10

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Lille vs Rennes Tip 2: Value on goals in Northern France

It’s a surprise that over 2.5 Goals is at odds-against for this match because there are some very good offensive players on show. The last three Lille home games have all resulted in over 2.5 goals scored, with 100% of the goals coming from themselves. Lille have registered the second-highest xG of any side at home this season (26.23) but only converted that into 21 goals. They have plenty of weapons, such as Jonathan David, and should be confident of scoring at least once vs a Rennes defence, which has kept only one clean sheet in 13 games.

Rennes are definitely more of an open and overs-type of team under the management of Julien Stephan. He likes to play on the front foot with a high tempo, which can sometimes leave them exposed at the back. Eight of the last 10 Rennes fixtures have contained at least three goals, so I think there’s a good chance that over 2.5 can land here. I expected odds around the 1.75 mark, but it’s much more, and this feels like a juicy price at 2.04. Lille could be tired after a midweek trip and make some mistakes, which would also likely aid goal production.

• Lille vs Rennes Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.04
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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Lille vs Rennes Tip 3: Terrier value to net against former club

How often do players score against former clubs? Martin Terrier could be in a prime position to hit the back of the net against the club he started off life at! Terrier was a scoring machine last season before an ACL cut short his campaign. He has netted five times and supplied two assists in 16 appearances as he’s worked his way back to full fitness. Rennes has been sensible in how they used him, and his minutes have been managed well. Terrier scored a brace of goals vs Clermont a few weeks ago, which should have built up his confidence.

Rennes have a lot of different players who are possible scorers. Kalimuendo, Gouiri and Bourigeaud. There’s always a chance that Terrier could be the penalty taker depending who is on the field.

Big prices amongst Rennes players to score at any time are on offer in this game and it’s mostly because the visitors are overpriced to win outright. This is a decent Lille team but a good time to face them and Rennes will get chances. Terrier is someone who has proved reliable to me in recent years. He’s converted 3.77 xG into five goals and can add to that tally here at juicy odds.

• Lille vs Rennes Tip 3: Martin Terrier to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Lille vs Rennes Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:30, February 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Lille vs Rennes Team News and Possible Lineups: Lille play just three days after Austria

Lille are playing this match just three days after a UEFA Conference League match away to Austrian side Sturm Graz. There’s a chance of some rotation and obviously possibility of injuries as well. Lille don’t have many significant injuries at the time of writing, though.

Rennes attacking midfielder Enzo Le Fee is still ruled out injured but might be close to a return soon. Rennes should otherwise be close to full strength with few other concerns.

Lille possible starting lineup: Chevalier, Gudmundsson, Yoro, Diakite, Santos, Bentaleb, Andre, Haraldsson, Gomes, Zhegrova, David

Rennes possible starting lineup: Mandanda, Truffert, Theate, Omari, Seidu, Doue, Santamaria, Bourigeaud, Blas, Terrier, Kalimuendo

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The Predicted Lille vs Rennes Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lille vs Rennes, currently 4th vs 8th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Lille vs Rennes Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris SG	34	22.6	8.1	3.4	79.0	32.6	46.4	75.8
2	Brest	34	17.7	9.7	6.6	51.3	28.6	22.7	62.8
3	Monaco	34	16.8	7.7	9.6	60.9	48.2	12.7	57.9
4	Nice	34	16.0	9.8	8.2	37.6	26.8	10.8	57.7
5	Lille	34	15.0	10.8	8.1	49.0	31.9	17.1	55.9
6	Lens	34	15.0	8.5	10.5	48.5	38.7	9.8	53.6
7	Marseille	34	13.6	11.7	8.7	50.8	36.1	14.7	52.6
8	Rennes	34	13.3	10.9	9.9	49.5	40.7	8.8	50.6
9	Reims	34	14.1	6.7	13.2	44.9	46.2	-1.2	49.1
10	Lyon	34	11.9	6.6	15.5	40.8	52.2	-11.4	42.4
11	Toulouse	34	9.6	10.7	13.7	38.7	47.5	-8.8	39.4
12	Montpellier	34	9.3	10.6	14.1	41.3	46.9	-5.6	38.5
13	Strasbourg	34	9.5	9.9	14.6	35.7	50.0	-14.4	38.4
14	Nantes	34	10.2	6.7	17.1	35.2	50.4	-15.2	37.3
15	Le Havre	34	8.2	11.6	14.2	36.6	47.7	-11.0	36.1
16	Lorient	34	7.3	9.5	17.3	41.5	63.8	-22.3	31.3
17	Clermont	34	5.8	10.5	17.7	28.6	55.8	-27.2	28.0
18	Metz	34	6.3	7.8	19.9	28.5	54.4	-25.9	26.7

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Match Stats: Strong home fortress for Lille

• Lille have a very strong 8-3-1 home record this season
• Lille have the best defensive home record of any team, conceding just four games
• Rennes have won 11 of their last 14 games in all competitions
• Rennes have only kept one clean sheet in their last 11 fixtures

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Lille Fixtures: Some crunch fixtures approaching

• Vs Sturm Graz (H) Conference League
• Vs Brest A (A)
• Vs Lens (H)
• Vs Marseille (H)
• Vs Monaco (A)

Rennes Fixtures: Chance for Rennes against key rivals

• Vs Marseille (H)
• Vs Strasbourg (A)
• Vs Monaco (A)
• Vs Toulouse (H)
• Vs Nantes (A)

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