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Boxing Lille vs Lens Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Welcome to our Lille vs Lens prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview as football betting expert Steve Wyss gives us the lowdown and best bets preview. Ligue 1 returns after the international break with a fiery local derby in the north of France.
Prediction: Lille 0-0 Lens
Local pride is at stake but the result of this match could have serious implications in the race for the Champions League. It promises to be a passionate affair with an electric atmosphere – one that struggles for goals.
- Lille vs Lens Tip 1: Lens +0.5 Asian Handicap
- Lille vs Lens Tip 2: Under 2.5 Goals
- Lille vs Lens Tip 3: Half Time Draw
Lille vs Lens Prediction 1: Lens can battle to avoid defeat
France, Ligue 1, Friday 29th March, 20:00 (UK)
Everything is geared up for the Derby du Nord between Lille and Lens at Le Stade Pierre Mauroy. This should be a fantastic Friday night showdown between two huge rivals who hate each other. To add further spice to the occasion both teams are doing well this season and currently situated inside the European places.
This matchup has the potential to explode with cards, fouls and a stop-start nature expected in abundance. The last two league meetings have resulted in 1-1 draws and this is a game neither will want to lose.
Lille have a strong home record this season and only lost once in front of their own fans, but they do look like a short price here. There is an argument to suggest that Les Dogues are the second-best team in Ligue 1, but on the back of an international break, this might be a tricky spot for them. Lens will fight hard for absolutely everything and lost just one of their last nine away games, which came at Nice just before Christmas.
A draw is very possible so I like the idea of taking Lens on a +0.5 Asian Handicap. They seem overpriced, considering the nature of the fixture and their quality levels. Let’s not forget they finished 2nd last season in Ligue 1, and a solid end to the campaign could see them claim a similar spot.
- Lille vs Lens Prediction 1: Lens +0.5 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.81
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Lille vs Lens Prediction 2: Fierce local derby could be devoid of goals
In the whole of world football then the fierce nature of some local derbies can often lead to tense and tight games which neither team wants to lose. I am immediately drawn to backing under 2.5 goals for this match and this is my most confident selection from the fixture.
Both teams rank inside the top five for under 2.5 goal games this season and have a knack of conceding few goals. Both fixtures last season were extremely tight ending 1-0 and 1-1. The most recent encounter between the two sides back in October also resulted in a 1-1 draw.
Lille averages the fewest shots conceded per match in Ligue 1 this season. They are difficult to score against. Both sides have overachieved their xGA figures by a combined 19.36! Some people might suggest that those numbers suggest being fortunate at the back, but when you have goalkeepers such as Brice Samba and Lucas Chevalier in between the sticks then you have to expect some top-quality saves.
This is the sort of match where if someone takes the lead, then they will likely waste time and look to hold onto their advantage. Equally, if it’s a draw approaching the final stages then I don’t think anyone will want to lose. The ball might not be in play that much either, so under 2.5 goals looks like a big price at 1.86.
- Lille vs Lens Prediction 2: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.86
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Lille vs Lens Prediction 3: Close affair can lead to half time stalemate
If this match is as tight and cagey as I expect, backing the half-time draw at an odds-against price of 2.10 must be considered. It is one of my favourite ‘go-to’ bets when teams of a similar ability face each other and the high-stakes derby nature of the fixture will likely lead to a fiercely contested first half in which neither team takes that many risks. When goal production is expected to be low then an all-square interval scoreline could be very much on the cards.
Neither side are particularly known for half-time draws this season, with Lille hitting that mark eight out of 26 times and Lens on nine occasions. However, you have to consider the type of match on an individual basis, and this fixture ticks all the boxes required to be level at the interval. I think there’s a good chance of this entire game ending 0-0 anyway, and I would certainly suggest that is the most likely HT score.
- Lille vs Lens Prediction 3: Half Time Draw (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Lille vs Lens Prediction odds via bet365 as at 01:00, March 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Lille vs Lens Team News and Possible Lineups: Both sides nearing full strength
Lille look set to be at full strength with no major injuries or suspensions. Lens defender Abdukodir Khusanov is suspended, but probably wouldn’t have started anyway.
The visitors should line up in their normal 3-4-1-2 formation with Wesley Said a possibility to come into the side at the expense of Elye Wahi or Florian Socota.
Lille possible starting lineup: Chevalier, Ismaily, Yoro, Diakite, Santos, Gomes, Andre, Bentaleb, Haraldsson, David, Zhegrova
Lens possible starting lineup: Samba, Medina, Danso, Gradit, Frankowski, El Aynaoui, Mendy, Aguilar, Costa, Wahi, Socota
The Predicted Lille vs Lens Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lille vs Lens, currently 4th vs 6th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Lille vs Lens Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 79.0 | 32.6 | 46.4 | 75.8 |
| 2 | Brest | 34 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 51.3 | 28.6 | 22.7 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 16.8 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 60.9 | 48.2 | 12.7 | 57.9 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 37.6 | 26.8 | 10.8 | 57.7 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 49.0 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 55.9 |
| 6 | Lens | 34 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 48.5 | 38.7 | 9.8 | 53.6 |
| 7 | Marseille | 34 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 50.8 | 36.1 | 14.7 | 52.6 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 49.5 | 40.7 | 8.8 | 50.6 |
| 9 | Reims | 34 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 44.9 | 46.2 | -1.2 | 49.1 |
| 10 | Lyon | 34 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 15.5 | 40.8 | 52.2 | -11.4 | 42.4 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 34 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 38.7 | 47.5 | -8.8 | 39.4 |
| 12 | Montpellier | 34 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 41.3 | 46.9 | -5.6 | 38.5 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 34 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 35.7 | 50.0 | -14.4 | 38.4 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 17.1 | 35.2 | 50.4 | -15.2 | 37.3 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 36.6 | 47.7 | -11.0 | 36.1 |
| 16 | Lorient | 34 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 41.5 | 63.8 | -22.3 | 31.3 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 17.7 | 28.6 | 55.8 | -27.2 | 28.0 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 19.9 | 28.5 | 54.4 | -25.9 | 26.7 |
Match Stats
- The last two H2H meetings have resulted in 1-1 draws.
- Both sides rank in the top four with under 2.5 goal games in Ligue 1.
- Lille have a strong 8-3-1 home record this season.
- Lens have won 3 of their last 4 away games.
- Both sides rank in the top five for shots allowed against per game.
Lille Fixtures: Conference League test against Villa
- Vs Marseille (H)
- Vs Aston Villa (A)
- Vs Aston Villa (H)
- Vs Strasbourg (H)
- Vs Monaco (A)
Lens Fixtures: Soft run of games coming up
- Vs Le Havre (H)
- Vs Metz (A)
- Vs Clermont (H)
- Vs Marseille (A)
- Vs Lorient (H)
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