Ligue 1 Golden Boot: Who's in the Race?

The Betting Favourites to Become Ligue 1’s Top Scorer

With Kylian Mbappé’s departure from Ligue 1, the race for the league’s Golden Boot is wide open for the first time in years. PSG remain favourites for the title, but their usual dominance in the top scorer race is less certain, as Bradley Barcola leads an intriguing field of contenders.

Here’s a look at the main players vying for Ligue 1’s top scorer crown this season and what their performances mean for betting markets.

Bradley Barcola: Leading the Charge

Bradley Barcola has stepped up brilliantly to fill the void left by Mbappé at PSG. Now operating as their starting left winger, Barcola has showcased his ability to cut in from the flank and score with his favoured right foot.

With 10 goals in 12 appearances, Barcola boasts a remarkable average of one goal every 82.6 minutes, making him the league’s most efficient finisher. While PSG’s potent attack—scoring three goals per game on average—supports his numbers, Barcola’s non-penalty xG of 0.44 per 90 minutes shows his underlying performance is strong.

For bettors, Barcola represents the safest choice for the Golden Boot, given his form and the attacking opportunities PSG consistently create.

Mason Greenwood: Overperforming but Dangerous

Mason Greenwood has revitalised his career since moving to Marseille. With 8 goals in Ligue 1, he ranks second in the scoring charts, but there’s a catch: Greenwood has significantly overperformed his xG by 4.18 goals—the most in the division.

While Greenwood’s finishing ability is undeniable, Marseille’s underlying team metrics suggest their current overperformance may not last. They rank 10th in the league based on xPTS, which could impact Greenwood’s chances of keeping pace in the Golden Boot race. Bettors should be cautious with Greenwood unless Marseille can sustain their unlikely form.

Jonathan David: A Proven Performer

Jonathan David is no stranger to the Golden Boot conversation. The Lille striker has scored 19 goals in a season before and finished second to Mbappé in the 2022/23 campaign with 24 goals.

This season, David’s 6.26 xG ranks third in Ligue 1, demonstrating Lille’s ability to create quality chances for their star forward. Known for his clinical finishing, David is overperforming slightly, but his long-term consistency makes him a strong candidate for bettors seeking value in the market.

Evann Guessand: The Surprise Contender

Evann Guessand’s rise this season has been a revelation. After scoring just 6 league goals for Nice last year, the 23-year-old has already matched that tally in the current campaign.

Guessand’s strength lies in his physicality and dribbling ability, traits that make him a tough opponent for defenders. With 6 goals from an xG of 4.66, he is outperforming expectations but remains an outsider in the Golden Boot race. For long-shot bettors, Guessand could offer a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.

Conclusion

While Bradley Barcola appears the clear front-runner to claim Ligue 1’s Golden Boot, the unpredictability of this season’s race makes it one of the most exciting in recent years. Jonathan David’s proven pedigree offers solid value, while Mason Greenwood and Evann Guessand provide intriguing options for bettors seeking riskier plays.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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