Lewandowski and Mbappe’s Form: Bet Goals

Robert Lewandowski reached 40 goals for Barcelona over the weekend. He is battling it out with Kylian Mbappe for the Pichichi trophy. The performances of both forwards will have a massive impact on who wins what in the final months of the season.

Barcelona and Real Madrid are embroiled in an enthralling battle for the Spanish title. They are also amongst the favourites to win the Champions League and could meet in the final. Lewandowski and Mbappe could give their respective teams the edge. Their scintillating form also provides an opportunity for bettors.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Flick’s Lewandowski Link Up is the Difference Maker

Barcelona are the top scorers in La Liga, netting an average of 2.83 goals per game. Only PSG and Bayern Munich have scored more goals per league game. However, the Blaugrana have outperformed those clubs in Europe by scoring 3.2 goals per Champions League game. 

Hansi Flick has brought an aggressive style to the Camp Nou. His Barcelona team play with an extremely high defensive line and are keen to win the ball back as soon as they lose it. They have the lowest PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) in La Liga with 6.89 per game. Dominating possession and winning the ball back as close to the opposition goal as possible means they create an abundance of chances. This creativity is aided by the incredible talents of Raphinha and Lamine Yamal in the wide areas.  

Robert Lewandowski has benefitted from Barcelona’s gung-ho approach. The striker received criticism for his performances under Xavi but he has rediscovered his best form under Hansi Flick. The pair worked together at Bayern Munich. In their last season together in Germany, Lewandowski scored 41 league goals, breaking the Bundesliga scoring record. While the La Liga record, currently held by Lionel Messi, is out of reach, Robert has proven that he remains one of the most lethal forwards in football.

Lewandowski has a non-penalty xG of 0.71 per 90 minutes in the past year, meaning he ranks in the top 1% compared with all forwards across Europe’s top five leagues. The Polish international has nine goals in his last 12 competitive matches and looks set to continue this rich vein of form. He netted twice in his team’s 4-1 win over Girona at the weekend.

Next up for Barcelona is a clash with Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey semi-finals. It’s 4-4 after the first leg, in which Lewandowski scored. Robert also scored in the Blaugrana’s recent league meeting with Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone’s side struggled against a relegation-threatened Espanyol at the weekend so we are backing Lewandowski to find the net against a wounded Atleti here. 

Mbappe Looks to Emulate Ronaldo  

Kylian Mbappe finally made his long-awaited move to the Santiago Bernabeu in the summer. The Frenchman, who is regarded by many as the best player in the world, joined a team that are the reigning champions of Spain and Europe. As a result, he was the clear favourite to be the top scorer in La Liga. After a slow start by his standards, Kylian has found his feet in a white shirt. 

Carlo Ancelotti believes Mbappe can replicate Cristiano Ronaldo following his brace against Leganes. He has a long way to go but his recent form is impressive. Kylian has scored 18 goals in his last 17 matches for Real Madrid. Despite this, he remains three goals behind Lewandowski in the league. The bookmakers also have the Barcelona man as the favourite to be top scorer.   

Mbappe is no stranger to the big stage, having participated and scored in two World Cup finals. His contribution in this crucial phase of the season could be the deciding factor as Real chase success on all fronts. However, Real have work to do. BETSiE predicts that they will finish behind Barcelona in La Liga.

Next up for Real Madrid is the second leg of their Copa del Rey tie against Real Sociedad. Mbappe was ruled out of the first leg, which Los Blancos won 1-0. However, the attacker will fancy his chances of making an impact here. Sociedad have conceded 19 goals across their last seven away matches across all competitions, which doesn’t bode well as they gear up to face an electric Mbappe. When compared with forwards across Europe’s top five leagues in the past year, Kylian ranks in the top 10% for non-penalty xG, shot-creating actions, progressive passes, progressive carries, successful take-ons and touches in the opposition box. He will take some stopping here.

With Real Madrid and Barcelona closely matched, the performances of Mbappe and Lewandowski could make all the difference. The La Liga title race is very much on and we could even see the first-ever Champions League final El Classico. 

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