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Boxing Lens vs Nice Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Welcome to our Lens vs Nice prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview over in France. It’s a crucial 5th vs 6th clash in the North, with Lens looking to build on last week’s important victory against Brest.
This is a crunch period for Lens if they have Champions League ambitions again. French expect Steve Wyss previews this Ligue 1 affair delivering the best bets, analysis and in-depth look for this Saturday evening special. Our Lens vs Nice prediction is for Lens to win the match 3-1
- Lens vs Nice Tip 1: Lens to Win
- Lens vs Nice Tip 2: Lens to Score Over 1.5 Goals
- Lens vs Nice Tip 3: Over 2.5 Goals
Lens vs Nice Prediction 1: Lens to build on crucial win facing tired Nice
France, Ligue 1, Saturday 16th March, 20:00 (UK)
Lens claimed a vital 1-0 victory at home to Brest last week which has moved them up to fifth position and right on the tail of the Champions League spots. It was a grind of a victory against a Brest outfit who were unbeaten in 13 games, but Lens found a way to get the three points, which will do them the world of good. If we take away their shocking start to the season in August, Lens have been a really strong team in Ligue 1 and lost only three league games since mid-September. Nice managed to beat them in the reverse fixture, and only PSG & Monaco are the other teams to have managed it.
This current version of Nice looks miles off the pace now, though. Their excellent form for the majority of the season has deserted them, and if they aren’t careful, then they will finish out of the European spots entirely. They are winless in six straight Ligue 1 fixtures, and their once reliable defence is now much shakier.
Centre-back Jean-Clair Todibo was embroiled in a row with their ultra fans last week and the togetherness and unity in the squad appears to have evaporated. Nice play this match just three days after a trip to Paris in the French Cup quarter-finals. At the time of writing, we don’t know the result of that, but it’s not ideal preparation for this match. With a full week of preparation and far better form, Lens to win looks like a very solid pick.
- Lens vs Nice Prediction 1: Lens to Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Lens vs Nice Prediction 2: Lens value again to net multiple goals
For the third straight week, I advise Lens to score over 1.5 goals in a match. It worked a treat for us when they thrashed Lyon 3-0 away from home but came up short last week when they only beat Brest 1-0. The danger scoreline is again 1-0 because Lens have a knack of keeping a lot of clean sheets. Last week felt like a tougher fixture, though, and Brest provided a resistance which I didn’t expect. Ultimately, it became obvious in the second half that the only thing that mattered was the result, and Lens were happy to manage the game.
I still believe there is untapped potential in this Lens attack. Les Sang et Or have the second-best xG in Ligue 1 (44.88) but have only netted 34 times. Ironically, only Nice have been a bigger underachieving side in front of goal this season. They have weapons such as David Costa, Elye Wahi and Florian Socota, and this isn’t a team that lacks quality.
They have missed the clinical element of Lois Openda but I am convinced before the season is complete that they will improve their xG metrics towards what they deserve. Nice are not defending as well as they were in the first half of the season, and Lens can take advantage of any tired legs following the midweek cup match. The odds of 2.25 for the hosts to score two or more goals looks overpriced.
- Lens vs Nice Prediction 2: Lens Over 1.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.25
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Lens vs Nice Prediction 3: Both sides can unleash their hidden attacking potential
This is a clash between the two biggest underachieving attacks in Ligue 1. Between them, they have an overall xG of 83.84 but only scored 58 goals! There is often a reason why for many statistics, but in this instance, it’s quite baffling. Both teams possess top-class strikers in Elye Wahi and Terem Moffi, so logically, scoring goals should not be a problem. There are plenty of quality attacking options on both sides, which makes me think that before the end of the season, these metrics will go closer to where they should be.
The over 2.25 goal line feels too low in this current spot. Last weeks’ 1-0 win for Lens was only the second time in nine games that one of their fixtures contained less than two goals. They have been in better scoring form and could actually cover this goal line on their own if Nice continue to struggle defensively.
I just feel like the visitors now need to lean on their own strike force to get points, which could see an open type of game develop. Nice can definitely contribute here, and I would also lean towards BTTS – Yes. Taking the 2.25 goal line covers for a half loss if exactly two goals are scored, though, which is an offensive play.
- Lens vs Nice Prediction 3: Over 2.25 Asian Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Lens vs Nice Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:30, March 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Lens vs Nice Team News and Possible Lineups: Medina return a boost for Lens
Lens have had a full week to prepare for this match with no distractions. Defender Facundo Medina returns from suspension which is a boost. Nice play in midweek vs PSG in the French Cup, so keep an eye on any injuries or suspensions that might result from that game.
Midfielder Youssouf Ndayishimiye was suspended last Friday against Montpellier but should feature here.
Lens possible starting lineup: Samba, Medina, Danso, Gradit, Frankowski, El Aynaoui, Mendy, Aguilar, Costa, Wahi, Sotoca
Nice possible starting lineup: Bulka, Bard, Dante, Todibo, Lotomba, Boudaoui, Ndayishimiye, Thuram, Boga, Moffi, Guessand
The Predicted Lens vs Nice Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lens vs Nice, currently 5th vs 6th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Lens vs Nice Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 79.0 | 32.6 | 46.4 | 75.8 |
| 2 | Brest | 34 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 51.3 | 28.6 | 22.7 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 16.8 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 60.9 | 48.2 | 12.7 | 57.9 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 37.6 | 26.8 | 10.8 | 57.7 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 49.0 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 55.9 |
| 6 | Lens | 34 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 48.5 | 38.7 | 9.8 | 53.6 |
| 7 | Marseille | 34 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 50.8 | 36.1 | 14.7 | 52.6 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 49.5 | 40.7 | 8.8 | 50.6 |
| 9 | Reims | 34 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 44.9 | 46.2 | -1.2 | 49.1 |
| 10 | Lyon | 34 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 15.5 | 40.8 | 52.2 | -11.4 | 42.4 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 34 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 38.7 | 47.5 | -8.8 | 39.4 |
| 12 | Montpellier | 34 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 41.3 | 46.9 | -5.6 | 38.5 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 34 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 35.7 | 50.0 | -14.4 | 38.4 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 17.1 | 35.2 | 50.4 | -15.2 | 37.3 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 36.6 | 47.7 | -11.0 | 36.1 |
| 16 | Lorient | 34 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 41.5 | 63.8 | -22.3 | 31.3 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 17.7 | 28.6 | 55.8 | -27.2 | 28.0 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 19.9 | 28.5 | 54.4 | -25.9 | 26.7 |
Match Stats: Not so Nice form for Les Aiglons
- Nice are on their worst run of the entire season, winless in six games including four defeats
- Lens have only lost three Ligue 1 fixtures since the middle of September
- Both sides rank in the bottom three for average goals per game at 2.30 and 1.70 respectively
- Nice now only have the ninth best away record in the division and have been mediocre on the road
Lens Fixtures: Big local derby next week vs Lille
- Vs Lille (A)
- Vs Le Havre (H)
- Vs Metz (A)
- Vs Clermont (H)
- Vs Marseille (A)
Nice Fixtures: In-form Marseille Incoming
- Vs Nantes (H)
- Vs Reims (A)
- Vs Marseille (A)
- Vs Lorient (H)
- Vs Strasbourg (A)
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