Lens vs Brest Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

After a full house last week, bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, joins host Daniel Jenkins for another couple of tips for this weekend’s action. The boys pick apart the Manchester Derby and discuss the gloom amongst the doom at Torquay United.

The tips look at all three Premier League title contender’s chances on the weekend either side of a surprise quiz that may cost Sam his reputation as a tipster…

• You can watch the video of this podcast on our YouTube channel
• The bettingexpert Football Podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts.

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Lens vs Brest Tip 1: Lens to show their class and beat overachieving Brest

France, Ligue 1, Saturday 9th March, 20:00 (UK)

Lens delivered an excellent win for us last week when they comfortably claimed a 3-0 victory away to Lyon. Les Sang et Or finished an impressive second last season but have been playing catch-up for most of this campaign. They find themselves down in 6th place but form has been improving with a victory here moving them just three points behind Brest. Lens only have a mediocre home record this season which is a surprise because historically it’s an extremely tough place for any side to visit.

Brest are unbeaten in 13 consecutive Ligue 1 fixtures and have been the Cinderella story in France this season. Manager Eric Roy took over in January last year when they were on the brink of relegation and he has worked miracles on the Brittany coast. Brest have not fluked their position in the table but I think it’s time we acknowledged they are overachieving. The main reason for that has been at the back, where their xGA of 27.34 has led to them conceding just 18 goals.

Lens have been an even bigger overachieving team defending, and both keepers Brice Samba and Marco Bizot have enjoyed excellent seasons. It is those individuals that put me off backing BTTS – Yes or Over 2.5, but I think Lens can show their class at home. They know they need to win this game to put some pressure on those above them in the Champions League hunt, and at some stage, we have to expect a Brest decline. Maybe it starts here, so taking an odds-against price on Lens to win is worth backing.

• Lens vs Brest Tip 1: Lens to Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10

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Lens vs Brest Tip 2: Host to score multiple goals again

Taking Lens to score over 1.5 goals worked a treat for us last week when they cashed at a hefty 2.50 vs Lyon. I think the same bet is worth taking again for various different reasons. Firstly, the odds have not dropped much, and the 2.25 on offer is a very acceptable price. They are now at home where Lens have netted at least twice on six occasions this season, including both recent fixtures. I just sense that their attack force is starting to wake up, and they can definitely net multiple goals versus a Brest defence, which has overachieved.

Lens have the second biggest xG underachievement in the entire division. Their overall xG of 11.13 is only toppled by PSG, and I have mentioned several times this season they are due to convert those metrics back to the norm before the end of May.

Victories like the 3-0 last week vs Lyon are evidence that this might keep occurring. We know that Lens creates chances and won’t fear anyone. Brest have kept a remarkable eight clean sheets in their last ten games, but many of those opponents were easy, and this will be a far more challenging test. The goalkeeper, Marco Bizot, can only keep saving them for so long, and I believe this is going to be a hard night for the visitors.

• Lens vs Brest Tip 2: Lens Over 1.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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Lens vs Brest Tip 3: Wahi value to net again

Elye Wahi has endured a frustrating season and should have scored more goals, but it looks like he’s found form at just the right time. The former Montpellier man has hit the back of the net in all of his last three competitive games and stands out at a huge 3.25 to score again here. Wahi has scored just five times in 18 league appearances this term, but most of those have come from the turn of the year. Let’s not forget he smoked a huge 19 goals last season on the south coast with Montpellier and has had to adjust to a new team and tactical system.

It’s often about now at this stage of a campaign when a player has more confidence and understanding of his new surroundings. His overall xG of 8.28 puts him in the top ten overall for individual players in this category, so at least he’s been getting into some good positions.

He converted his penalty with authority and belief last week vs Lyon and should now stay on spot kick duty for Lens. It has been a merry-go-round who takes penalties for them recently but he could now take pole position. For a hot striker then odds of 3.25 in a home game feels too big to ignore. We are getting extra value because of the perceived strong Brest defense, but as aforementioned it’s been vastly overachieving.

• Lens vs Brest Tip 3: Elye Wahi to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Lens vs Brest Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:30, 4th March, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Lens vs Brest Team News and Possible Lineups: Both teams in good health

Lens don’t have any new injuries to worry about. There are some long-term casualties, such as Machado and Cabot, but the home team will be at effective full strength.

Brest have a very healthy squad with no injury worries. Attacker Steve Mounie returns from suspension but might have to be content with a place on the bench.

Lens possible starting lineup: Samba, Medina, Danso, Gradit, Frankowski, Mendy, El Aynaoui, Aguilar, Costa, Wahi, Socota

Brest possible starting lineup: Bizot, Locko, Brassier, Chardonnet, Lala, Magnetti, Lees-Melou, Pereira Lage, Camara, Del Castillo, Satriano

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The Predicted Lens vs Brest Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lens vs Brest, currently 6th vs 2nd, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Lens vs Brest Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris SG	34	22.6	8.1	3.4	79.0	32.6	46.4	75.8
2	Brest	34	17.7	9.7	6.6	51.3	28.6	22.7	62.8
3	Monaco	34	16.8	7.7	9.6	60.9	48.2	12.7	57.9
4	Nice	34	16.0	9.8	8.2	37.6	26.8	10.8	57.7
5	Lille	34	15.0	10.8	8.1	49.0	31.9	17.1	55.9
6	Lens	34	15.0	8.5	10.5	48.5	38.7	9.8	53.6
7	Marseille	34	13.6	11.7	8.7	50.8	36.1	14.7	52.6
8	Rennes	34	13.3	10.9	9.9	49.5	40.7	8.8	50.6
9	Reims	34	14.1	6.7	13.2	44.9	46.2	-1.2	49.1
10	Lyon	34	11.9	6.6	15.5	40.8	52.2	-11.4	42.4
11	Toulouse	34	9.6	10.7	13.7	38.7	47.5	-8.8	39.4
12	Montpellier	34	9.3	10.6	14.1	41.3	46.9	-5.6	38.5
13	Strasbourg	34	9.5	9.9	14.6	35.7	50.0	-14.4	38.4
14	Nantes	34	10.2	6.7	17.1	35.2	50.4	-15.2	37.3
15	Le Havre	34	8.2	11.6	14.2	36.6	47.7	-11.0	36.1
16	Lorient	34	7.3	9.5	17.3	41.5	63.8	-22.3	31.3
17	Clermont	34	5.8	10.5	17.7	28.6	55.8	-27.2	28.0
18	Metz	34	6.3	7.8	19.9	28.5	54.4	-25.9	26.7

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Match Stats: Two card-happy sides face each other

• Brest have the third best away record in Ligue 1 with six wins and just three defeats.
• Both sides rank inside the top five for goals conceded.
• Both sides rank inside the top five for cards obtained.
• Lens have the second best xG in Ligue 1 (44.13).

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Lens Fixtures: Northern derby against Lille closing in

• Vs Nice (H)
• Vs Lille (A)
• Vs Le Havre (H)
• Vs Metz (A)
• Vs Clermont (H)

Brest Fixtures: Mixed bag of fixtures for Brest

• Vs Lille (H)
• Vs Lorient (A)
• Vs Metz (H)
• Vs Lyon (A)
• Vs Monaco (H)

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