Late Goals Surge in the Premier League: A Golden Opportunity for Punters

The Premier League has seen a noticeable surge in late goals this season, creating unique betting prospects for those who know where to look. This trend, established last season, shows no sign of slowing down, offering savvy punters exciting chances to back late goal markets.

Stoppage-Time Goals are Becoming the Norm

So far this season, late goals—those scored after the 75th minute—have become a prominent feature of Premier League games. An average of 0.68 goals are scored per match from this point, an increase from previous seasons. Nearly half of Premier League matches this term have seen a goal in the last 15 minutes, with 10 out of 27 goals on matchday 10 coming in this timeframe. In fact, stoppage time is seeing an average of 0.25 goals per game, nearly matching last season’s peak of 0.27.

The thrilling example of Fulham’s late victory over Brentford last week, secured by two injury-time goals from Harry Wilson, epitomised this trend. The 2-1 win was the fifth-latest comeback victory in Premier League history, underscoring the value of looking at the clock when placing bets.

Late Goals and the Teams to Watch

Certain Premier League teams stand out when it comes to finding value in betting on late goals. Fulham, for instance, have netted three injury-time goals this season, joint most alongside Bournemouth. They’ve shown a knack for scoring late, often turning the tide in their favour during these moments.

Brentford, however, are struggling to hold leads, conceding four times beyond the 90th minute already. With Bournemouth set to play Brentford soon, punters may find good value in betting on late goals or last-minute drama.

Another team worth noting is Manchester City, who have had eight goals scored in their games after the 80th minute across their first 10 fixtures. Guardiola’s side, known for dominating possession, often wear down their opponents to score late. This season, they’ve been leaky in defence and relied heavily on scoring late to secure wins. With Brighton up next for City, there’s a strong case for betting on a late goal at the Amex, where three goals were scored after the 80th minute in Brighton’s last two home matches.

Why Late Goals Are More Than Just a Trend

While there’s still a long way to go in the season, the pattern of late goals is likely here to stay. The Premier League’s high-octane style, combined with the intense physical demands on players, creates a perfect storm for last-minute action. Teams often leave themselves open at the back when chasing results, and the added minutes of stoppage time—often stretching to eight or more—only increase the likelihood of late goals.

Conclusion: Making the Most of the Late-Goal Surge

For punters, the uptick in late goals in the Premier League offers an excellent betting angle. Backing teams with a history of scoring or conceding late could provide consistent returns as this season unfolds. As Fulham, Brentford, and Manchester City demonstrate, focusing on teams with recent trends in scoring or conceding late could be a winning strategy, especially with betting options like “goal after 75:00” or “goal in stoppage time.”

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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