Serie A‘s top of the table remains unchanged after last weekend’s results, with Inter Milan, Napoli, and Atalanta still separated by just three points. 

This Sunday promises to add another thrilling chapter to one of the most exciting title races in Italian football history. The Nerazzurri are set to travel to Bergamo to face the reigning UEFA Europa League champions. 

Despite having lost their last seven encounters against Inter, Giampiero Gasperini’s side still have a shot at claiming the Scudetto. Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, explains why it feels like a ‘now or never’ moment for the Orobici to clinch their first-ever title.

Gasperini’s against his bogey team

Last Sunday’s resounding 4-0 victory in Turin over Juventus is not something new for La Dea. 

In fact Gasperini’s men had defeated the Old Lady only three years ago, marking Atalanta’s first win there in 30 years. 

But Atalanta haven’t beaten Inter for more than six years, 14 games in total, since a 4-1 victory at the Gewiss Stadium in November 2018. 

The squad’s energy levels have been replenished in the past two weeks, free from cup commitments. 

Atalanta are yet to win a Serie A home game in 2025 (four draws, one defeat), but sharing the points with the current champions on Sunday night wouldn’t close the title race. 

Simone Inzaghi’s side remain on track for a second historic treble, but their schedule up to the end of April is set to be significantly more demanding than that of their direct rivals. 

Remarkably the Nerazzurri have struggled in top-of-the-table clashes this season, averaging just 1.42 points per game against teams in the top nine positions. 

Inter haven’t been as clinical as they were in 2023/24 when they excelled in big matches, recording 12 wins and four draws, averaging 2.5 points per game. 

This season’s lower tally also compares unfavourably to Napoli’s 1.86 points per game and Gasperini’s Atalanta, who average 1.80 points per game in similar key encounters.

‘Greatest Ever’ Scudetto Race Carries Huge Betting Value

In the modern era, where a win grants three points—a system introduced in the 1994/95 campaign—only three instances have seen an even tighter margin between the top three teams.

One of the most memorable of these was in the 2001/02 season, culminating in Juventus dramatically overtaking Inter on the final day (pictured below). 

That year, with 10 matches remaining, Inter and Roma led by just one point ahead of Juventus. However, it was Juventus who clinched the Scudetto after the Milanese club lost 4-2 against Lazio.

Another similarly tight race was in the 2021/22 season. AC Milan led with 60 points, while Inter and Napoli followed closely on 58 and 57 points, respectively. The Rossoneri eventually secured the title with a narrow two-point lead over Inter.

In 1997/98, with 10 matches to go, Juventus led with 52 points, chased by Lazio with 48 and Inter with 47. Juventus managed to maintain their advantage until the end.

It has happened before

Since 1994, in 14 out of 31 seasons, the gap between first and third with 10 matches remaining has been less than 10 points. 

However, only three times has the team sitting third at that stage gone on to win the title. The most notable case was Juventus in 2001/02, and in 1998/99, when AC Milan managed to surpass Lazio and Fiorentina.

Atalanta are hoping to pull off a similar feat. Our in-house projection tool, BETSiE, assigns them only a 7.9% chance of winning the title. 

The current odds of 7.00, which imply a probability of 14.3%, suggest that bookmakers might be overestimating Gasperini’s team. 

However, La Dea offers the second-best betting value among genuine title contenders in Europe’s top five leagues, just behind Atletico Madrid, who are at odds of 7.50 for success in La Liga. 

Atalanta are due a positive result against Inter, and if they manage to avoid defeat, their odds as outright winners are likely to shorten further.

This weekend, Napoli are heavily favoured against Venezia with a 66.1% chance of victory. Even if Antonio Conte’s men look set to reclaim the top spot, backing them at odds of 2.75 or lower doesn’t offer great value. 

Over the past 30 years, the Scudetto has been decided on the final day only seven times. 

If the standings remain this tight, we could see a thrilling finale or even Italy’s second ever title playoff. 

BETSiE Projected Serie A table

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