Kylian Mbappé’s suspension makes Madrid a 'Real' risky pick

Real Madrid will be without Kylian Mbappé this weekend after the Frenchman was sent off during their 1-0 victory against Alavés last Sunday. 

Initially, it was anticipated that Mbappé would face a lengthy suspension, potentially dealing a significant blow to the Spanish giants in their quest to retain the league title. However, the Spanish Football Federation Disciplinary Committee has handed him a one-match suspension. This means he will be available for their Copa del Rey final clash with Barcelona on April 26. 

However, without the 26-year-old, Los Blancos risk slipping further down the La Liga table, and backing them to defeat Athletic Bilbao might be a risky move, explains our European football expert Daniele Fisichella.

Red mist might cost La Liga title

Mbappé’s loss of temper could significantly impact Real Madrid’s season as they head into a crucial week. First, they’re aiming for a historic ‘remontada’ against Arsenal on Wednesday, a tie in which, according to BETSiE, they have just an 8.4% chance of qualification. Additionally, the Spanish title race and the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona loom large. 

In La Liga, they remain in pursuit of Barcelona following their 1-0 victory at Alavés on Sunday, leaving them four points adrift.

Besides Mbappé’s absence this weekend, things do not look promising for Carlo Ancelotti’s side. The clean sheet against Alavés was their first in nine games, and their last five wins have all been by a single goal. Real Madrid are currently outperforming in La Liga, with 4.87 points more than their expected tally based on xG data, having netted 6.60 goals more than projected.

Facing Athletic Bilbao, who have lost only three away games this season, all by a one-goal margin, Real Madrid risk dropping vital points in the title race, compounded by Mbappé’s absence. Our in-house projections tool suggests that without the French striker this season, Real would earn 0.9 points fewer – a notable difference for a single player. In terms of goal difference, they are 0.14 goals per game worse off without him.

No European hangover for both sides

In the reverse fixture back in December 2024, Real Madrid suffered their second defeat of the campaign, losing 2-1 to Athletic Bilbao. In that game, Mbappé was by far their most dangerous player, registering three shots, a key pass, and a missed penalty. Mbappé amassed a total of 1.17 xG against Athletic Bilbao, his second-highest tally this season in any La Liga away game.

The Basque side are strong favourites with a 64.2% projected chance to beat Rangers on Thursday in the Europa League and boast an impressive record this season (three wins, seven draws, and just one defeat) after playing European matches mid-week. Real Madrid, however, also seem to cope well with high-stakes European games, having only failed to win three out of 11 matches following Champions League fixtures.

Yet, Real have failed to win both La Liga games (1-1 vs Atletico Madrid and 3-3 vs Rayo Vallecano) when Mbappé was unavailable due to injury. 

In the two Copa del Rey games their number nine missed this season, Carlo Ancelotti’s side won but only by a single-goal margin (3-2 against Leganés and 1-0 against Real Sociedad), suggesting they might struggle against a resilient Athletic Bilbao side that hold the best defensive record, with 25 goals conceded and an average of 0.8 per match. 

The best bets could be ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes,’ which has been successful in 11 of the last 12 games at the Bernabéu, or backing Athletic Bilbao with a 0.75 Asian Handicap, which has been successful in 16 out of 21 away games for Ernesto Valverde’s side in all competitions. 

In fact, the only full loss for this bet came in the 4-1 defeat to Beşiktaş in the Europa League, while in the other four defeats by a single goal margin, when Asian handicap bettors would have seen half their stake refunded.

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