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Boxing Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
After two intense Coppa Italia semi-finals the Bianconeri and La Viola meet in Turin on Sunday and here’s our Juventus vs Fiorentina prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Both defeated last weekend, two of Serie A’s fiercest rivals are in great need of three points.
In fact after falling six points behind AC Milan now the Bianconeri are even risking to be leapfrogged in third position by Bologna, whereas Vincenzo Italiano’s men are sitting in 10th position, three points away (but still a game in hand) from Lazio.
As always our Serie A expert, Daniele Fisichella, has dissected the game for you.
- Juventus vs Fiorentina Tip 1: Full Time Result: Juventus
- Juventus vs Fiorentina Tip 2: Under 2.25 Goals Asian Line
- Juventus vs Fiorentina Tip 3: Federico Chiesa and Dusan Vlahovic Both Over 0.5 Shots on Target
Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction 1: searching for the true ‘Old Lady’
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, March 7th, 19:45 (UK)
Seven points in the last nine games have caused Juventus’ fall from title-contenders (they approached the game against Inter in February only one point behind the Nerazzurri) to Champions League’s qualification chasers.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side still has a decent lead on Roma (seven points, but with the key game at the Olimpico coming up in early May), but their recent form (only Salernitana, Frosinone and Sassuolo have collected less points in the last period) is a serious cause for concern.
The Bianconeri have the same points as they did last season after 30 games, a clear sign things have gone wrong for a club that in 2023/2024 hasn’t had European competitions to negotiate with.
Last Saturday, Juve were outplayed by Lazio and created very little in front of goal (xG 0.48, the lowest of the whole matchday 30 in Serie A) despite Allegri’s switch to a 4-3-3 formation to allow Federico Chiesa to play in his more natural position, as a winger.
Since the end of January, Juventus have only scored nine times (three of which against Frosinone at home), and now have the eighth-best domestic attack of Serie A, having netted just one goal more than newly promoted Cagliari.
- Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction 1: Full Time Result: Juventus (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 4/10
Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction 2: visitors are entertaining but often inconclusive
Yet this Tuesday, again against Lazio, the hosts fully deserved their 2-0 win, and against the side that had beaten them only 72 hours before, they showed a good reaction after a tricky first half.
It was only Juve’s second clean sheet in the last ten games and the first time they had won a game without conceding since January 21.
Undoubtedly the return of Dusan Vlahovic is a big boost. The Serbian striker has scored in Coppa Italia his 16th goal of the campaign (a personal record in his two seasons and half in Turin) confirming his good form since the turn of the year.
In fact, the former Fiorentina striker scored six goals in the last seven home games in all competitions when played from the beginning.
Moreover, the hosts have never lost this season when their centre-forward has found the net.
Fiorentina were defeated 2-1 by AC Milan and although that was only their first loss in the last seven games in all competitions the performance has highlighted, once again, some of La Viola’s frailties.
Manager Vincenzo Italiano (who’s set to leave the club in June after three seasons) always demands his players to keep the defensive line high and press all over the pitch.
However the absence of very quick defenders, combined with Fiorentina’s lack of cutting edge (they score, on average, every 9.38 shots) and a dose of bad luck (they’ve hit the woodwork 17 times in Serie A, more than any other teams), have turned decent performances into negative scorelines.
- Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction 2: Under 2.25 Goals Asian Line (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction 3: hosts’ hitmen can have a field day
The visitors are certainly very entertaining to watch, and against AC Milan, they were denied a second goal by a couple of Mike Maignan’s super saves.
However, their below average record against top sides (they’ve lost to Inter, AC Milan and Bologna, without scoring) and poor away form (only 16 points on the road, due to six defeats and a -2 goal difference), make you wonder whether, at least this season, they can be a serious contender for a finish in the top seven.
La Viola are winless on the road since 22 December (1-0 in Monza) and their xGA (expected goals against) differential away from home is the highest in Serie A (+6.85).
Against such a leaky defense that has only kept three away clean sheets and only one (against Čukarički) in five Conference League games, you’d fancy Juventus, who only lost one home match so far, and its main strikers to get chances.
Vlahovic is fourth in Serie A for shots on target, with 32, and Chiesa, also a former Fiorentina player, is Juventus’ second top shooter, behind the Serbian, with 21.
The Italian international has had at least a shot on target in three of the last four matches.
- Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction 3: Federico Chiesa and Dusan Vlahovic Both Over 0.5 Shots on Target (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.15
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:00, April 3nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Juventus vs Fiorentina Team News and Possible Lineups: an important return in both camps
Allegri should revert to the trusted 3-5-2 formation with Vlahovic (who’s returning from suspension) up front alongside Chiesa, both strikers have netted in midweek against Lazio in Coppa Italia.
Kostic will be the left wing-back with De Sciglio and Miretti dropping to the bench. McKennie should play in midfield alongside Locatelli and Rabiot. Milik is still unavailable due to injury.
A few changes are expected for Fiorentina from the XI that lost 2-1 to AC Milan last Saturday.
Kayode should be preferred to Dodò at right-back, Arthur Melo and Bonaventura (also returning from suspension) will regain their places in midfield as Mandragora and Duncan (in goal last weekend) will be among the substitutes.
Sottil will replace Kouame and Nico Gonzalez will start on the right hand side of the attack.
Juventus possible starting lineup: Szczesny; Gatti, Bremer, Danilo; Cambiaso, Rabiot, Locatelli, Mckennie, Kostic; Vlahovic, Chiesa.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup: Terracciano; Kayode, Milenkovic, Martinez Quarta, Biraghi; Arthur Melo, Bonaventura; Nico Gonzalez, Beltran, Sottil; Belotti.
The Predicted Juventus vs Fiorentina Serie A Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Juventus vs Fiorentina, currently 3rd vs 10th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Juventus vs Fiorentina Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 88.1 | 23.9 | 64.2 | 93.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 58.6 | 26.2 | 32.4 | 79.6 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.8 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 70.0 | 47.8 | 22.2 | 72.5 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 38 | 21.0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 71.7 | 39.9 | 31.8 | 69.2 |
| 5 | Bologna | 38 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 53.1 | 37.3 | 15.8 | 63.9 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 62.0 | 43.6 | 18.5 | 61.2 |
| 7 | Lazio | 38 | 17.7 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 47.7 | 38.8 | 8.9 | 60.5 |
| 8 | Napoli | 38 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 55.6 | 44.0 | 11.6 | 59.6 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 54.3 | 46.1 | 8.2 | 56.0 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 36.4 | 35.3 | 1.1 | 53.7 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 37.7 | 50.0 | -12.3 | 45.9 |
| 12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 38.2 | 47.2 | -9.0 | 44.9 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 7.3 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 39.7 | 54.6 | -14.8 | 39.4 |
| 14 | Lecce | 38 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 16.9 | 41.0 | 60.6 | -19.6 | 39.3 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 38 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 47.9 | 65.8 | -17.9 | 38.1 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 38 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 47.0 | 73.6 | -26.6 | 36.8 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 32.4 | 56.8 | -24.4 | 36.2 |
| 18 | Verona | 38 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 18.8 | 36.8 | 52.2 | -15.4 | 34.8 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 38 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 39.0 | 68.6 | -29.6 | 33.1 |
| 20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 31.3 | 76.3 | -44.9 | 22.4 |
Match Stats: a one sided rivalry, with very few goals
- In the last nine matches only Salernitana (2), Frosinone (3) and Sassuolo (4) have collected less points than Juve.
- The most common result of matches between Juventus and Fiorentina is 1-0. Thirteen matches have ended with this result.
- Juventus has scored 7% of their goals between the minutes 31 and 45. This is the lowest percentage in Serie A.
- Juventus are unbeaten in the last three games against Fiorentina.
- La Viola have won only one of the last eight matches in all competitions. The last time Fiorentina won in Turin was in December 2020 (3-0 with goals from Vlahovic, Caceres and an own-goal from Alex Sandro).
Juventus Fixtures: extremely tough fixtures
- Vs Torino (A)
- Vs Cagliari (A)
- Vs Lazio, Coppa Italia semi-final (A)
- Vs AC Milan (H)
- Vs Roma (A)
Fiorentina Fixtures: busy schedule with cup matches
- Vs Viktoria Plzeń, Europa Conference League, quarter-finals (A)
- Vs Genoa (H)
- Vs Viktoria Plzeń, Europa Conference League, quarter-finals (H)
- Vs Salernitana (A)
- Vs Atalanta, Coppa Italia semi-finals (A)
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