Josh Ingram’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets

With the football season almost upon us, Josh Ingram has put together his favourite ante-post outright bets, including the Top Goalscorer and Most League Assists in the Premier League.

Elsewhere, three shorter-priced picks favour teams across the Championship, and League Two, whilst another top scorer punt whets the appetite for the season ahead.

1. Championship Top Six: Luton Town
2. Premier League Top Newcomer: Ipswich Town
3. League Two Top 3 Finish: MK Dons
4. League One Top Goalscorer: Jonson Clarke-Harris
5. Premier League Most Assists: Bruno Fernandes

2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.

The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.

Luton Top Six Finish: The Hatters bouncing right back

England, Championship.

A significant factor in why Luton has been competitive over the last couple of years is down to Rob Edwards’ management as head coach. He has his team playing in a way that works for the squad he has, which he showed when he took over Luton and led them to playoff victory. Many expected Luton to be rock bottom, but still being in the hat to stay up at the back end of the season was a testament to what he’s built at the football club.

Retaining a squad after relegation is a significant challenge, and Luton have largely managed to do this. Ross Barkely’s departure would have been expected given his performance last season, as a player of his calibre is far too good for the Championship.

Luton have managed to keep hold of three of their four main goal contributors. Carlton Morris registered 15, Elijah Adebayo and Alfie Doughty with ten, and Barkley on nine.

Proven Goalscorers

Regarding players coming into the club, Shannon Baptiste is a player who has failed to make many appearances over the last few years but could make himself a useful player for some extra depth in the middle of the pitch. Carlton Morris remains and has proved himself to be a more than competent striker in the Premier League. So, for him to drop back down to a league where he already won the Golden Boot at the previous time of asking with 20 goals to his name is a dangerous prospect.

Everyone wants a goalscorer, and the Hatters have a proven championship goalscorer in Morris. Also, with Adebayo, they have a forward who has scored 16 at this level for Luton before. It would be possible for both of them to grab a good number of goal contributions.

Luton is a club set up so that they could do sensible transfer business going into the Premier League with a squad that would stay together if relegation occurred. Therefore, they could be more than capable of getting into the playoffs minimum if it were to be the case. A price of 2.25 and being third favourite to end in the top six seems right for Luton. I am expecting them to push the second automatic close.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Luton Top Six Finish (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: Skybet
• Stake: 20/10 (2u)

Ipswich Town Top Newcomer: Ipswich to be cream of the promoted crop

England, Premier League.

Among the three promoted teams, the champions appear to be the least prepared for the Premier League challenge. Southampton and Ipswich Town are on a similar level, both doing some solid recruitment. The market’s odds have Saints as the favourites at 1.83, Ipswich at 3.00, and Leicester at 4.50, which I find slightly surprising. I expected the Tractor Boys to be closer in price to the Saints.

Under the leadership of Kieran Mckenna, Ipswich Town has made a remarkable return to the Premier League after just over two decades, securing consecutive automatic promotions. The Tractor Boys have been one of the most consistent sides in the country since Mckenna’s appointment. While the volume of wins may decrease, the style of play will remain the same. With the transfers already made, the potential for a successful season, including the possibility of staying up, is genuine.

As mentioned in my season match bet article regarding Ipswich’s transfer dealing, it’s been a very sensible approach compared to previous promoted sides like Burnley last year upon promotion. Signing top-end Championship talent and hoping they make the step up is an approach I quite like due to the relatively small downside of this policy, with most players being likely to stay if relegation does happen.

The club has primarily decided to sign people under 25, as evidenced by the signings of Liam Delap, Arijanet Muric, Jacob Greaves, and Ben Johnson.

Trust in Mckenna

When you gain promotion to the top flight, the potential of being unable to resign loan players or be raided by bigger clubs is a distinct possibility. So, the early business of locking down Omari Hutchinson on a permanent basis was impressive. He is a hungry young player who needs to challenge himself in a leading role in a Premier League outfit.

Southampton are coming up through the playoffs and have managed to hold onto most of their squad. The replacement of Che Adams with Brereton Diaz, who had seven goals and assists in 14 for a struggling Sheffield United, is a clear upgrade. The permanent signing of Harwood-Bellis, a Premier League centre-back in all but name, was a necessary move. Adding experience with Adam Lallana and Charlie Taylor further bolsters the team.

Leicester are undergoing significant changes, with Steve Cooper taking the helm after Enzo Maresca’s move to Chelsea. Cooper’s return to the Premier League comes after a challenging stint last year, with only three wins in 17. A poor first half of the season is something he cannot afford.

Kieran Dewsbury-Hall was influential for the Foxes throughout the championship campaign, providing 26 goal contributions. However, he still needs to be replaced. Bringing in Abdul Fatawu Issahaku was sensible business, but it was required to maintain the attacking output he offered last year. Leicester are lacking in attacking areas to hurt teams, and expectations should be lowered with the squad at Cooper’s disposal, with relegation likely.

• Ante-Post Selection 2: Ipswich Top Newcomer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

MK Dons Top Three Finish: MK to Banish Playoff Heartache

England, League Two.

After the Playoff heartbreak to eventual winners Crawley Town, there are big expectations for MK Dons this coming season. Under Mike Willamson last campaign, they played excellent football with nothing to show for it in the end. Looking at the signings made this summer, breaking into the top three is a realistic possibility.

Losing a player at Max Dean’s level is never easy, but it is inevitable when you fail to gain promotion. MK Dons’ Star forward chipped in with 20 goals and assists last term, helping push them into a playoff spot.

The Callum Hendry signing is a promising addition. With nine goals last year, he may not be at Max Dean’s level, but he doesn’t have to be. The other incomings are expected to replace Dean’s output collectively. Tommy Leigh, for instance, on a free from Accrington, returned a goal or an assist every three games last term, totalling 13. His best position in Williamson’s side is yet to be confirmed, but it’s likely to be just behind Hendry.

The Dons to the Dons?

A switch not made too frequently for players is moving from AFC Wimbledon to MK Dons; Connor Lemonheigh-Evans has done just that. It’s a very good bit of business as they are getting a player with 11 goals and assists who only averaged 63 minutes a game with 26 starts and 36 total appearances.

An area on display needing drastic improvement was the defence when Crawley Town regularly walked through MK Dons in the 8-1 defeat over two legs. So, reinforcements were essential. The addition of Sam Sherring for free after his contract expired with mid-table League One Northampton Town is excellent business – a defender with League Two promotion experience offers composure and the ability to play out from the back.

Further additions at the back of Laurence Maguire: It’s clear Willamson wants defenders who are good with their feet and physically able, which is what Maguire offers at this level. An experienced EFL defender across League One and Two, Luke Offord comes with a promotion with the Railwaymen from League Two and over 200 appearances.

• Ante-Post Selection 3: MK Dons Top Three Finish (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 15/10 (1.5u)

Jonson Clarke-Harris Top Scorer of League One: Eyeing a Trio

England, League One.

The key here for me is the man at the helm appointed at the tail end of last season, Steve Evans. He’s the exact manager you want if attempting to get out of League One is the aim, considering his track record of promotions across his career. Evans will make the most of a possible strike partnership of Jonson Clarke-Harris and Jordan Hugill.

What you need at any level is a proven marksman with experience at the level he’s going to be playing at, and Clarke-Harris has that pedigree. In his entire time in League One, he has netted 107 times, making him one of the most prolific the division has ever seen. The two years Clarke-Harris won the Golden Boot were 2020/21 season with 31 goals and the 2022/23 season with 26 goals; joint top with Connor Chaplin.

Across his last four seasons at this level, he has a 3.07 shots-a-game average. He is a high-volume shooter who takes chances whenever he can.

Sharpshooter

However, last year, Clarke-Harris’s performance were not up to his usual standards. His playing time was significantly reduced, with only 16 starts and 34 appearances, impacting his overall production. He finished the season with nine goals and two assists, a difference from his usual minimum double-digit goal tally in League One. But that’s not surprising – being effectively frozen out of a football club is not exactly the perfect breeding ground for heightened efficiency.

Alfie May is the favourite at 5.00 for the Golden Boot. In this Birmingham side, it makes sense why he’s the favourite by such a margin. The expectation is The Blues will dominate the league, and it will be hard to argue against them. The quality brought into the squad will provide opportunities to a player who won the Golden Boot last year in a poor Charlton side, so there is a chance he runs away with it. With the rumoured possibility of signing Jay Stansfield, he also would be a shoo-in to win it.

There is a possibility Rotherham will go up with Birmingham, but the minimum I’m expecting is the top three or four places in the league doing so by being a side scoring plenty of goals in the process. If that’s the case, then Clarke-Harris would have netted a fair portion for the promotion hunting millers.

• Ante-Post Selection 4: Jonson Clarke-Harris Top Scorer of League One (`TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 13.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Bruno Fernandes Most Assists in the Premier League: Fernandes to be Assist King

England, Premier League.

Bruno Fernandes is one of the best midfielders in the league on his day. Over recent years, he has single-handedly won Manchester United games.

Bruno finished with a respectable eight assists last year, which put him 21st in the league behind the league’s top assister, Ollie Watkins, who had 13. This was a clear overperformance from Watkins, who was an unexpected winner. He had an expected assists total of 4.16. For him to overperform to that degree is such an anomalous result.

Bruno’s expected assists (xA) were 10.23, but he underperformed that by 2.23 through no fault of his own, with his actual assist being eight. He sat third in the expected assist table, a promising sign for him this season. He is a man who creates chances year on year.

His total for the last few years of expected assists are as follows [xA (actual assists)]:

• 2022/23: 16.7xA (8)
• 2021/22: 9xA (6)
• 2020/21: 11.4xA (12)

Fernandes is a creative player who has the ability to break into mid-teen figures to challenge for the most assists. He is regularly one of the top players for expected assists, but he needs some to fall for him, as Watkins did last season.

Leading creative outlet

United’s main creative outlet averaged 8.14 progressive passes per 90 minutes, which was in the 98th percentile in the Premier League, and created 5.83 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, further highlighting how crucial Bruno is in most of Man United’s positive forward play.

Kevin de Bruyne’s being a heavy favourite at 3.25 makes sense when he’s on the pitch. His numbers are unbelievable, and so are his performances year after year. A massive part of football, though, is availability. Over recent years, the volume of time spent injured has been high. Last year, he missed 147 days across the season, with 41 games missed across all competitions and internationals.

Regarding availability, Bruno has averaged 35.5 starts a season across his four full years at Manchester United, with over 3000 minutes a year. He is the heartbeat of that United side.

The last few winners of the award have hit levels of mid-teens to get the most assists accolade.

De Bruyne with 16 two years ago, Mohammed Salah with 13 in the 2021/22 season and Harry Kane’s 14 in 2020/21. With the signing of Joshua Zirkee and Hojlund returning from injury, the chances Bruno creates may not be squandered this time around as they are landing at players’ fett with goalscoring qualities. Marcus Rashford is still a player that excites me, and not making the England squad means he will be fully rested. I’m hoping that fuels him to have a big season.

• Ante-Post Selection 5: Bruno Fernandes Most Assists in the Premier league (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 15.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

Josh Ingram’s Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets Odds via bet365 as at 09:00, 2nd August 2024 odds for best bets may now differ.

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