January Transfer Window Shakes Up Premier League Outright Odds

As Manchester City strives to rebuild and regain form, Manchester United and Arsenal grapple with the absence of key signings that could impede their ambitions. 

Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s smart acquisitions may provide the boost needed to qualify for next season’s Champions League. 

In contrast, Leicester City and Newcastle may find their indecisiveness costly in the long run. As the transfer window closes, our expert Daniele Fisichella examines the Premier League betting landscape.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Fresh blood for Pep

The winter transfer window saw Manchester City make significant investments, bringing their total spending to over £185 million. 

With new signings like Nico Gonzalez, Omar Marmoush, and Abdukodir Khusanov,  City’s strategy is to rejuvenate their squad amidst a notable slump in form. 

Moreover, securing Erling Haaland on a long-term contract suggests strong support for Pep Guardiola from the club’s owners.

This display of confidence in the Catalan manager may fuel a resurgence as the Citizens aim to climb up the table. But, would it be enough to finish in the top 2? 

BETSiE currently projects them to finish fourth in the Premier League and assigns them only a 3% chance of ending the season as runners-up, making the current odds (8.00), with an implied probability of 12.5%, far too short.

Can Rashford help Villa to reach top-4?

Aston Villa were January’s big winners, as they signed Donyell Malen from Borussia Dortmund and secured loans for Marcus Rashford and three-time Champions League winner Marco Asensio. 

They’ve also bolstered their defence, which has only kept three clean sheets so far, with Axel Disasi. 

Financially stable after selling Jhon Duran, Unai Emery’s club is poised for a stronger finish to the campaign.

With a projected final points tally of 57.3, less than Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, but only six points off Newcastle in sixth place, betting on The Villans to clinch top six at such high odds could represent good value. 

Scarce Options Up Front Leave Arsenal and United exposed

Manchester United’s transfer dealings left much to be desired as their squad appears perhaps weaker than before the window opened. 

With only Patrick Dorgu as a first-team addition and players like Marcus Rashford and Antony leaving on loan, United’s lack of offensive options is glaring. 

Manager Ruben Amorim faces an uphill battle, with the team’s struggles likely to continue through the season, casting doubt on whether betting them to finish in the top half (only a 17.5% chance, according to BETSiE) is a viable option. 

Equally, Arsenal’s inability to buy a striker leaves them with limited attacking options. 

This oversight could prove costly, given their position behind league leaders Liverpool. 

The Gunners have recorded 11 fewer xG than the Reds, and the reliance on Kai Havertz, whose shooting accuracy is only 47.5%, and others remains a gamble that could hinder Mikel Arteta’s men pursuit of the title.

A lack of signings might condemn The Foxes  

Leicester showed little ambition in the transfer window, making minimal signings and leaving significant gaps unaddressed. 

Rudd Van Nisterloy’s men currently have the third worst attack and defence based on underlying data, and have been assigned an 85.2% chance of returning to the Championship.  

Despite selling Miguel Almirón for £11 million, Newcastle did not strengthen their squad. 

Eddie Howe’s team remains on the verge of Champions League qualification and the EFL Cup final, but the lack of reinforcements makes them a risky bet for the top four at the end of the season. 

Safer Gambling

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