It’s Time to Back Jubilant Magpies in Outright Markets

With solid underlying numbers and sky-high confidence after lifting the Carabao Cup, Newcastle are poised for a strong end to the 2024/25 season. 

Bookies still price the Magpies as outsiders in the outright markets, however, creating plenty of betting value. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Opportunity to Gain Ground 

The international break came at the perfect time for Newcastle. It’s given them time to enjoy the end of the 70-year major trophy drought without hangovers – proverbial or otherwise – impacting their upcoming league fixtures.

Knocked out of the FA Cup by Brighton, the Magpies canfully focus on the Premier League commitments for the rest of the season. They are only two points off fourth with a game in hand on every other top-half team, putting them in prime position to finish the season strongly.

Newcastle’s next four matches feature home fixtures with Brentford, Manchester United and Crystal Palace along with a trip to face Leicester, who have lost 14 of their last 16 matches across all competitions. All four matches are very winnable for Eddie Howe’s team. 

Brentford, Palace, and United are in the bottom half. Two of the three are also in the bottom half in expected goal difference. Leicester would be rooted to the foot of the table in many other seasons, particularly with how woeful they have been under Ruud van Nistelrooy (seven points from 17 league matches). 

Newcastle have the fifth-best expected goal difference this season. They have won 15 of their last 20 matches across all competitions, a streak which has included wins over Aston Villa, Manchester United, Tottenham, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, and Liverpool. 

The remainder of the season could see Newcastle kick on, ensuring a return to the Champions League and setting a foundation for 2025/26. There’s equally a risk that the return to the grind of the Premier League is hard to motivate the players for after the jubilation of the League Cup triumph, elongated celebrations, and open-top bus parade. 

Betting Value on Magpies

bet365 has Newcastle as an outsider to finish in the top four despite their favourable upcoming fixtures. 

Chelsea have lost three of their last five league matches and have looked generally dysfunctional in 2025. Enzo Maresca’s team have 14 points from 10 matches since the turn of the year. Forest have mid-table underlying numbers, and Chris Wood just suffered an injury on international duty which could keep him out for several matches. Manchester City haven’t won consecutive league matches since wins either side of New Year’s Day.

Newcastle go fourth if they win their game in hand. The teams around them have much more challenging fixtures in the coming weeks, while the sides behind them are unlikely to sustain a top-four push. 

Brighton will be eyeing a cup run. The same goes for Fulham. Both teams also have significantly worse expected goals numbers than Newcastle. Aston Villa have two wins from eight league matches, and the Villains have plenty of distractions with the FA Cup and Champions League.

The 3.25 price on Newcastle to finish in the top four is exceptional value. Those odds are going to shorten considerably if they – as expected – win three or four of their next four league matches. 

The seven-point gap to Forest will be closed to three if Newcastle win their game in hand. Facing Manchester United, Villa, Everton, and Tottenham in their next four, Forest’s top-four position is far from secure, particularly if Wood misses more than one match. It’s very possible Newcastle are the highest finisher outside of the Big Six – a top three finish is well within reach if Howe’s side can get close to sustaining their form from the cup final. 

Eleven points ahead with nine matches to play, Arsenal are probably out of reach. The Gunners have Champions League commitments, though, and their lead to Newcastle could be small by the time the sides meet in the penultimate round of fixtures. Newcastle a fun longshot for a top-two finish at 67.00 if you believe the Carabao Cup triumph was the start of a glorious era for the Toon Army.

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