Italy's Striker Duo Make Them A Nations League Smart Bet

Under Luciano Spalletti, the Azzurri have transformed into a more dynamic and incisive team, particularly in attack. 

With Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean at the forefront, Italy are gearing up for an intense Nations League quarter-final against Germany. 

Our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella explains why such a prolific striker partnership makes Italy a valuable bet for victory in the competition. 

The Rise of Retegui

Italy has struggled to find reliable strikers in recent times, but that narrative might be changing. 

It’s been seven years since two Italian strikers topped the Serie A scoring charts, and, for the first time in three seasons, an Italian player is poised to clinch the top goalscorer title in the country’s top flight. 

In the 2017/18 Serie A season, Ciro Immobile netted 24 goals, with Fabio Quagliarella sitting third with 17 goals after 29 games. This season, Mateo Retegui (pictured below) is the current Capocannoniere with 22 goals, closely followed by Moise Kean with 15.

Retegui’s development in Bergamo under Gian Piero Gasperini has been remarkable, particularly in honing his off-the-ball movements and link-up play. 

His statistics tell the story: 22 goals this season, 3.98 shots per game (a notable improvement from last season), and an xG of 0.90 per 90 minutes. 

The former Genoa striker, who has also scored three Champions League goals and four for the Azzurri under Spalletti, generates and converts chances with impressive consistency.

Spalletti’s tactical masterstroke

Meanwhile, Kean has hit his stride in Florence, benefiting from the freedom to roam across the pitch granted by manager Raffaele Palladino.

He has accumulated 15 Serie A goals this season (20 in all competitions), showcasing his ability to operate centrally or on the wings. His versatility is a tactical asset for Spalletti.

Together, they bring a varied and unpredictable dimension to Italy’s attack. 

One is the finisher, while the other offers speed and depth—a combination Italy has long lacked.

For years, Italy relied on a single forward and a cautious setup. 

Spalletti has ushered in change, making the 3-5-1-1 formation his hallmark. This system has delivered against the likes of France, Belgium, and Israel. With Frattesi or Barella behind the sole striker providing balance and the Atalanta’s forward as the offensive focal point, Kean often comes off the bench to inject pace and incisiveness.

Yet, a twin striker approach remains a viable option. Against defensive sides, Retegui’s physicality combined with Kean’s movement can be the game-changer. 

Alternatively, Spalletti (pictured below) might start with one and adapt mid-game.

Why Italy is the team to watch

Italy concluded Group 2 of League A in second place with 13 points, just behind France on goal difference—four wins, one draw, and one defeat. 

Up next in the quarter-finals in March is Germany.

With Gigio Donnarumma in goal and Sandro Tonali steering the midfield, alongside the aforementioned forwards, Italy approach the final stage full of confidence and ambition.

The group stage has reinforced trust and belief. The attack is clicking, the squad is cohesive, and there’s renewed enthusiasm.

Despite progress, there are hurdles yet to be overcome. 

Defensively, Italy conceded eight goals in six matches, which is too many for a team historically centred on solidity. 

While Spain remains the favourite to win the Nations League, Spalletti’s Italy comes with a clear identity, a potent attack, and a confident group—making them a compelling prospect for bettors. 

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