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Boxing Ipswich vs Sunderland Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview
Saturday’s final bit of Championship action takes place at Portman Road and, as usual, we have you covered with an Ipswich vs Sunderland prediction, tips and best bets article.
James Cantrill lines up three picks as the automatic hopefuls host the play-off chasing Black Cats at odds of 1.90, 4.75 and 13.00.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Prediction and Tips Preview
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 2: Axel Tuanzebe Card
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 3: Abdoullah Ba Anytime Goalscorer
In this article:
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Team News
- The Predicted Championship Table
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Stats Preview
- How to watch Ipswich vs Sunderland
- Safer Gambling
Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 1: Goals, goals, goals
England, Championship, Saturday 13th January, 17:30
A stint of five winless league games, combined with Southampton’s fine form, has left Ipswich vulnerable to slipping out of the automatic spots for the first time since September.
Taking just four points from the last 15 on offer has seen their cushion to the chasing pack reduced. In mid-December, the Tractor Boys were three points of leaders Leicester and ten ahead of third. Now, less than a month later, Southampton are within striking distance, and the Foxes have moved ten points clear.
Aside from the drubbing at Elland Road, Keiran McKenna’s side have been unfortunate. A raft of injuries highlighted the lack of depth at his disposal, and some slack finishing and defending cost them the points against Norwich, Leicester, QPR and Stoke.
Across those four fixtures, Ipswich racked up an xG of 4.37 (scoring three) and conceded an xG of 1.8 (conceding three).
The one constant at Portman Road this term has been goals.
No side has scored more on home soil than Ipswich (33), and their average of 1.54 against is only trumped by three second-tier sides.
That is why I was a little surprised to see that over 2.5 goals was a shade of odds-on Saturday evening.
It is a bet that has clicked in 76.9% of their 13 home league games, and having scored three or more on eight occasions, it would not be a shock to see them cover this line on their own.
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: Unibet
- Stake: 10/10
Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 2: How to stop Jack Clarke
Leif Davis is a doubt for Saturday, and in his absence at Stoke, Axel Tuanzebe started at right back. The former is 5.50 for a card, and the latter is 4.75, both with bet365.
If I had to nail my colours to the mast, I would say Tuanzebe is the most likely to start here. Davis is nursing a calf strain that has seen him absent from the last three matchday squads.
I will be backing whoever starts right back on Saturday to be shown a card, and the player in question is pretty irrelevant as this angle is all about who they will be opposing: Jack Clarke.
The Sunderland winger is enjoying a stellar campaign; 12 goals puts him amongst a glut of players hanging off Sammie Szmodic’s coattails in the race for the Golden Boot.
It is a different facet of his game that interests me here, though. Only Georginio Rutter (2.4) has drawn more fouls per game than Clarke (2.3).
In 25 league starts on the left, 28% of his direct opponents have had their name taken, which is hardly surprising as Clarke has been fouled four or more times on seven occasions.
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 2: Axel Tuanzebe to be Carded (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 4.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 3: A Ba(rmy) price
The final selection simply had to be included just for the audacity of the price. Abdoullah Ba is 13.00 to score anytime. For context, he is 15.00 to score first with some firms and as short as 5.00 to score full stop.
For context, 11 of Ba’s 23 league appearances have come from the bench. He looked bright when introduced with five minutes to play against Newcastle but has only started one of the four games Micheal Beale has taken charge of.
In 12 starts, though, the Frenchman has had 18 shots, scoring twice and setting up another goal, which culminates in a goals-per-90 average of 0.16, and based on that alone, the price for him to score anytime is certainly value.
Unsurprisingly, the 20-year-old mercurial talent is streaky, which is why he has struggled to nail down a starting slot. As his attacking output shows, this bet certainly does not pose a question of value. The gamble will be whether he starts or not. Unibet will void a selection if the player in question does not start, so this punt does not feel like much of a gamble at all – more of a free hit, if anything.
- Ipswich vs Sunderland Tip 3: Abdoullah Ba Anytime Goalscorer
- Best Odds: 13.00
- Bookmaker: Unibet
- Stake: 1/10
Ipswich vs Sunderland Prediction odds via bet365, Unibet as at 16:30, January 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Team News Preview: Travis debut for suspended Morsy
Kieran McKenna went surprisingly strong for the Tractor Boys FA Cup 3rd round game with Wimbledon which they won 3-1.
Starts for regulars Sam Morsy, Nathan Broadhead, Marcus Harness, Luke Woolfenden and Omari Hutchinson were somewhat unexpected. Only stopper Vaclav Hladky has played more minutes than Morsey, but the skipper is unavailable for the next two games due to suspension. This could see Blackburn loanee Lewis Travis slot into the engine room.
Axel Tuanzebe has been on the periphery, but after grabbing the opener in the capital, the central defender is pushing for a start. With Davis nursing a calf strain, the Tuanzebe may get the nod at right back.
Elsewhere, the recently acquired Jeremy Sarmiento (on loan from Brighton) made his debut from the bench last game but may have to settle for another cameo with Broadbent, Conor Chaplin and Wes Burns all fit.
Kayden Jackson should spearhead the attack in George Hirst’s absence.
Michael Beale is expected to name an unchanged side from the XI that was thumped in the Tyne-Wear derby. This would see Nazarii Rusyn continue upfront and Alex Pritchard continue on the right.
The Predicted Championship Table: Playoff contention
BETSiE (our in-house predictive model) predicts that this game is 4th vs 6th in terms of end-of-season projections. At the start of the season, both teams would have chewed your arm off for playoff football. Yet, after Ipswich’s start, there will be plenty of fans disheartened if they don’t clinch automatics.
Regardless of if the Tractor Boys do or don’t, to come up from League One and saunter into the playoff contention for a shot at the Premier League is good going.
Sunderland will be thrilled with top six. When you consider the teams just behind them – Hull, for example, who has just brought in a player (Fabio Carvalho) who featured in the Champions League only weeks ago – you get a picture of just how difficult it is to clinch a playoff spot.
Ipswich vs Sunderland table prediction – Updated: 9th January 2024
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester | 46 | 32.1 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 87.5 | 35.6 | 51.9 | 103.0 |
| 2 | Southampton | 46 | 25.7 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 77.5 | 48.7 | 28.8 | 88.9 |
| 3 | Leeds | 46 | 26.0 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 79.2 | 39.6 | 39.6 | 88.6 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 46 | 25.4 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 76.7 | 52.8 | 23.9 | 88.5 |
| 5 | West Brom | 46 | 22.1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 63.1 | 39.4 | 23.7 | 77.7 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 46 | 21.1 | 8.9 | 15.9 | 65.8 | 50.5 | 15.3 | 72.3 |
| 7 | Hull | 46 | 20.2 | 11.3 | 14.5 | 67.1 | 55.4 | 11.7 | 71.8 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 21.0 | 7.8 | 17.2 | 70.1 | 60.0 | 10.1 | 70.7 |
| 9 | Coventry | 46 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 66.0 | 49.7 | 16.3 | 68.7 |
| 10 | Watford | 46 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 65.5 | 60.0 | 5.5 | 63.0 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 46 | 16.6 | 12.0 | 17.4 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 0.4 | 61.8 |
| 12 | Millwall | 46 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 17.7 | 50.1 | 55.1 | -5.0 | 58.0 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 46 | 16.9 | 6.7 | 22.4 | 65.8 | 78.6 | -12.9 | 57.4 |
| 14 | Norwich | 46 | 15.9 | 9.7 | 20.4 | 65.7 | 74.2 | -8.5 | 57.4 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 46 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 20.8 | 50.9 | 60.5 | -9.6 | 56.7 |
| 16 | Swansea | 46 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 19.1 | 58.1 | 69.4 | -11.3 | 54.9 |
| 17 | Preston | 46 | 14.6 | 10.7 | 20.7 | 45.9 | 69.6 | -23.6 | 54.4 |
| 18 | Stoke | 46 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 19.1 | 45.3 | 56.1 | -10.8 | 53.7 |
| 19 | Plymouth | 46 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 20.4 | 67.6 | 78.2 | -10.5 | 51.4 |
| 20 | Birmingham | 46 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 21.4 | 50.3 | 70.0 | -19.6 | 49.7 |
| 21 | Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 23.3 | 42.1 | 61.8 | -19.7 | 48.7 |
| 22 | Huddersfield | 46 | 9.7 | 15.5 | 20.8 | 42.3 | 71.0 | -28.7 | 44.5 |
| 23 | QPR | 46 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 23.4 | 37.6 | 59.2 | -21.7 | 43.8 |
| 24 | Rotherham | 46 | 6.4 | 13.8 | 25.8 | 38.3 | 83.5 | -45.2 | 33.0 |
Ipswich vs Sunderland OPTA Stats Preview: Getting against the Unders trend
- Ipswich have drawn their last three games with two or fewer goals scored in each.
- Sunderland have also seen under 2.5 goals click in all bar one of their last six league fixtures.
- This will only be the second Championship meeting between these sides since 2018. The first, a 2-1 Ipswich victory, ended a six without a win for the Tractor Boys in League One. They lost four over that period.
- Trai Hume became the third player to be sent off across the last five head-to-heads when the sides last met in August. Kayden Jackson and Andre Dozzell were the other two.
How To Watch
- Ipswich vs Sunderland, Championship.
- Date and Time: Saturday, January 13th, 17:30 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): Sky Sports Football
Safer Gambling
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
