International Break Hangover? Stats Reveal Who to Back This Weekend

International breaks often pose a unique challenge for top European football teams, as players disperse worldwide to represent their countries in various competitions. 

This can sometimes lead to injuries, impacting preparation and performance upon their return. Traditionally, there has been an assumption that backing big teams in their first match following an international break might not be wise.

However, recent statistics indicate otherwise. Elite clubs have often bounced back effectively in their immediate post-break fixtures, defying expectations. 

Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has delved into how to approach the return of domestic football in Europe’s top leagues.

Betting on Europe’s elite is a sound strategy

The recent statistics suggest that backing top teams across Europe is a promising strategy. 

Since last season, European powerhouses* have amassed 58 wins, 11 draws, and only five losses post-break. 

The Premier League’s top clubs have been particularly reliable, securing nine wins, two draws, and a single defeat in 2023/24, with Manchester United falling to Brighton at home.

This trend continues into the current season, with Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Aston Villa, registering 10 victories, two draws, and only three defeats (Liverpool’s 1-0 to Forest, Arsenal 2-0 loss to Bournemouth and Manchester City’s 4-0 loss to Tottenham). 

These results highlight that while caution is advised, the dominance of elite clubs persists due to effective squad rotation, the introduction of five substitutions, and players’ swift recovery from travel and fatigue. 

For instance, Manchester City, having deployed only seven players for international duty, are strong contenders against Leicester, with our projections giving them a 75.2% chance of winning. Considering a -2 Asian Handicap for Guardiola’s team seems a valuable choice.

Spain’s giants don’t feel fatigued

Caution is advised when top clubs face off right after the international break, especially in Serie A. 

Historically, post-break encounters involving Italy’s elite tend to be low-scoring affairs. Last season’s meetings saw Juventus secure a 1-0 victory over AC Milan, while the Derby d’Italia ended in a 1-1 draw.

This trend has continued this season. Inter and Juventus both recorded 1-0 wins against Roma and Lazio, respectively. Napoli also claimed a 1-0 victory over the Giallorossi, and a goalless draw unfolded between AC Milan and the Old Lady.

The English Premier League reflects similar trends, with Manchester City drawing 1-1 with Liverpool and 0-0 with Arsenal in 2023/24. 

In the current campaign Serie A sees a strong post-break performance from the five Champions League teams culminating in five victories, five draws, and just one defeat (Bologna’s 3-0 loss at Lazio). 

Our tool, BETSiE, predicts Bologna to have a 56.3% chance of winning against Venezia, offering valuable odds at 1.83. 

Also, Napoli vs AC Milan, a top of the table clash, is projected to have a 29.0% chance of ending in a draw, with a predicted goal line of 2.13. In this case a double chance for the visitors (X2) combined with under five goals doubles the stakes.

In Spain, both Real Madrid and Barcelona have been steadfast post-break, recording 10 wins and three draws since last season. With home matches against Osasuna and Leganes, backing them both with a -1 Asian Handicap enhances odds to 1.75.

* Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus, Atalanta, Napoli, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and Bayer Leverkusen. 

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