How to bet on stuttering Brazil in pivotal World Cup qualifying fixtures

Brazil have only won five of their 12 CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying matches so far, and only four players in their squad have over 32 caps. 

Facing Colombia and Argentina in this international break, bookies have given bettors a chance to access some excellent value markets.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Out of Form Brazil

Draws with Uruguay and Venezuela in the November international break have left Brazil seven points behind Argentina in South America’s World Cup qualifying standings. Brazil are only five points ahead of seventh-placed Bolivia and face a severely challenging couple of matches in the coming days.

It’s unfathomable that Brazil could finish outside the top six. The pressure could be on for the final four fixtures in this qualification phase if they fail to beat Colombia or Argentina during this international break, however. 

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Brazil have failed to score in their last four against Argentina, losing three of those matches in the process. Colombia have lost only two of their last seven against Brazil, including a draw when the sides met last July. 

Knocked out by Uruguay in the last eight of the Copa America and losing to Paraguay in September, Brazil have been struggling for a prolonged period. 

This is a team in a period of transition and missing several experienced players through injury in Neymar, Ederson, Casemiro, and Danilo. 

Trust Brazil’s Continental Foes

While this Brazil squad still has elite talents in Marquinhos, Vinicius, Alisson, and Gabriel Magalhães, it’s clearly a work in progress. Just four players have more than 32 caps. This is a largely inexperienced group, perhaps lacking the know-how to cope with the fierce pressure of representing the Canarinho. 

In Rodrygo and Endrick, the future of the frontline is in safe hands in the post-Neymar era. This is still one of the two best squads in South America, but it’s a long way from some of the successful Brazilian teams over the years. 

This was reflected in last eight exits at the last two World Cups. A disappointing Copa America was another reminder that they are hardly a formidable force right now – draws with Costa Rica and Colombia contributed to the tricky Uruguay matchup in the quarters.

Caption: Sergio Rochet saves Eder Miliato’s spot kick at the 2024 Copa America – : Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

Argentina haven’t been flawless in qualifying so far, with losses to Colombia and Paraguay. They are also without Paulo Dybala and Lionel Messi for their clash with Brazil. Colombia have lost three of their last four in qualifying. 

The bookies have clearly taken this into account when setting their odds for the upcoming qualifiers. Brazil are certainly capable of getting their qualifying campaign back on track with a couple of victories, but the oddsmakers have still been a bit too generous to Dorival Júnior’s side. 

The 2.05 price on Colombia to avoid defeat in Brasilia on Thursday is excellent value. The teams drew in the Copa America just last year, and Colombia have generally been a tricky opponent for Brazil over the last eight years. 

Argentina’s stellar recent record against Brazil makes them a great bet at 2.05 to win when the teams meet next week. Yes, Messi’s absence is significant, but Lionel Scaloni’s team have plenty of talent to compensate – an attack led by Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez is a fearsome proposition for any opponent. 

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