How To Bet On Nations League Favourites Spain

La Roja return to Rotterdam, where they won the Nations League trophy in 2023, in search of an historic success against Ronald Koeman’s side. 

Having missed the last three games with the national team, Lamine Yamal is set to be included into the starting XI. His partnership with Pedri will be key for Luis de la Fuente’s men, but do this season’s goalscoring numbers underline a potential issue for Spain? 

Spain have never beaten the Dutch away from home, and our international football expert, Daniele Fisichella, explains how to approach betting on the European champions.

Searching for an historic success

Spain start the Nations League quarter-finals with an impressive record of 21 unbeaten matches, winning 20 and drawing one. Since de la Fuente’s (pictured below) tenure began, La Roja has faced defeat only twice: once in a friendly and once in the Euro 2024 qualifiers against Scotland.

Having won this competition two years ago, Spain are aiming to complete an historic treble. But tonight’s match is expected to be a tricky one. 

In fact Spain has yet to beat the Dutch on their home turf, a predicament they share only with games in Russia and Sweden. In five visits, Spain have lost four times and drew once, after the pandemic, in Amsterdam, with a late goal from José Luis Gayà. 

Netherlands have suffered just one defeat in their last 32 matches played at the ‘De Kuip’, in the 2023 Nations League semi-final after extra time against Croatia. That was their first defeat on home soil since October 2000 against Portugal.

De la Fuente faces the task of restructuring the defence. The absences of Dani Carvajal, Aymeric Laporte, and Iñigo Martínez open doors for youngsters, like Pau Cubarsí, likely to partner with Robin Le Normand. 

Bournemouth’s Dean Huijsen, who was born in Amsterdam and raised in Malaga, and Real Madrid’s Raúl Asencio are poised for their senior debuts.

Data suggest to back a low-scoring match

Spain have won their last two away games, against Switzerland and Denmark, and are second in the competition, behind Sweden, for expected goals per game (xG) so far (2.08). 

However none of Spain’s front-three players, captain Alvaro Morata, Lamine Yamal and Athletic Bilbao’s winger Nico Williams, have experienced a very prolific season in their respective domestic leagues. 

Morata, in pursuit of his 38th goal that would place him alongside Fernando Torres in the top three of Spain’s all-time scorers, has managed to find the net only seven times across his stints in Serie A with AC Milan and in the Turkish Süper Lig with Fenerbahçe.

Williams’ numbers are also down from last season having scored just four goals in La Liga, whereas Yamal partially compensate for his lack of goals (six, from 7.58 xG), with 11 domestic assists. 

Overall, Spain’s attackers have registered just 17 league goals from an expected goals (xG) tally of 19.34, positioning them at the bottom compared to other top European nations like France, Portugal, and England. Their shot conversion rate of 14.84% also lags behind these counterparts.

La Roja’s playing style has evolved under de la Fuente, as they no longer focus on long passing sequences. Currently ranked ninth in the competition for possession, they now adopt a more direct approach. 

Despite this shift, Spain had the second most attempts on target in the Nations League, with 41 shots averaging 6.83 per game. The Netherlands, however, have matched them in terms of total attacks, both recording 243.

For those looking to place a bet, backing Spain to score exactly one goal—which has occurred in three of their last 11 matches—offers good value at odds of 2.62. Alternatively, betting on two to three goals in the match, with odds of 1.95, is also worth considering given that the Dutch have managed only one clean sheet in their last eight games.

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