How to Bet on Manchester United After Erik Ten Hag’s Departure

Manchester United’s latest managerial change has raised questions among fans and bettors alike. Erik Ten Hag was dismissed following a tough 2-1 loss to West Ham, marking United’s worst Premier League start in decades. Sitting 14th after nine matches, United have yet to show the form expected of a club of their stature. With Ruud Van Nistelrooy stepping in as interim manager, let’s explore how bettors can adjust their approach to the Red Devils during this transition.

Ten Hag’s Tenure: Poor Results Backed by Damning Data

Manchester United’s decline under Erik Ten Hag’s leadership was steep. While he led United to a third-place finish in his debut season and secured both the League Cup and FA Cup, expectations continued to grow. Yet, a slide to eighth place last season, with just 60 points and a negative goal difference, highlighted deeper issues.

Underlying metrics reveal an even bleaker picture. Last season’s expected points (xPTS) of 44.52 would have placed United 15th, suggesting their finish was somewhat flattering. Defensive gaps also plagued United, with an average of 17.55 shots conceded per game—the second-worst in the league behind relegated Sheffield United. Despite heavy investment in the summer transfer window, United currently rank sixth-worst for expected goals against (xGA) and are averaging just 0.89 goals per game, the third-lowest in the Premier League.

For bettors, these data points suggest caution in backing United in their upcoming fixtures. The defence has shown vulnerabilities, and without significant improvements, betting on high-scoring games or conceding trends may be worth considering.

Betting on United’s History with Interim Managers

Manchester United’s interim managers have historically delivered in their opening games, offering a unique angle for bettors. Since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement, United have had nine different managers, including interim appointments. Notably, six of the past eight managers won their first competitive matches, with interim figures like Ryan Giggs and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer overseeing strong debuts.

Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s appointment may offer a similar “new manager bounce.” His opening match against Leicester City in the EFL Cup will test his mettle, and given United’s recent 3-0 win over Leicester, optimism remains high. Van Nistelrooy’s managerial experience with PSV Eindhoven, where he led the league in goals scored, could influence a more attack-focused approach.

In betting terms, United’s transitional period might offer opportunities in cup games, where interim managers have thrived historically. Also, United’s odds for a top-six finish remain longer than usual, creating potential value in outright markets as Van Nistelrooy seeks to stabilize the club.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

With United’s tumultuous start and Ten Hag’s departure, keeping an eye on defensive performance and the initial response to Van Nistelrooy’s leadership will be essential. In the short term, betting on both teams to score or high goal totals may provide value as United recalibrate under their new interim management. For outright betting, United’s longer odds could be appealing for bettors anticipating a second-half revival.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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