Lazio have had a transformative season under new manager Marco Baroni, quickly establishing themselves as contenders in Serie A and the Europa League. With a refreshed squad and dynamic tactics, Lazio offer unique betting opportunities for those keen to back one of Italy’s most profitable teams this year.
Lazio’s Revitalised Attack
Lazio’s offensive strategy has been key to their early-season success. Currently holding the third-best attack in Serie A, Lazio have scored 24 goals in the league, a significant improvement from last season. Their attack has also excelled in Europe, leading the Europa League with nine goals so far.
A revamped midfield, featuring Rovella and Guendouzi, has brought balance and pace, allowing Lazio to transition smoothly from defence to attack. Arsenal loanee Nuno Tavares has emerged as an exceptional playmaker, contributing eight assists—the most in Europe’s top five leagues alongside Barcelona’s Raphinha. The addition of a two-striker system with Boulaye Dia and Castellanos has further boosted their scoring potential, with Castellanos benefiting from Dia’s skill in creating space.
Lazio’s increased shooting average, now 14 shots per game compared to last season’s 11.57, underscores their more aggressive approach. With veterans like Pedro stepping into central midfield roles, Lazio’s adaptability in attack offers a solid foundation for betting on goals in their games.
Betting on Lazio: Strong ROI in the 1X2 Market
From a betting perspective, Lazio are proving to be highly profitable in the 1X2 market, with a 15.9% ROI over their opening 11 league games. Historically, Lazio have a track record of outperforming bookmaker odds, delivering positive ROI in four of the past five seasons, including a 40% ROI in 2022/2023.
Currently, Lazio hold a 12.7% chance of finishing in Serie A’s top four and a 48.1% probability of making the top six, indicating that they’re in the mix for a European spot. However, while Lazio’s start has been strong, caution is advised, as projections suggest their ROI may moderate as the season progresses.
Potential Drawbacks: Defensive Fragility and Squad Depth
While Lazio’s attacking prowess has been impressive, their defence remains a concern, with only one clean sheet in Serie A so far. Their Expected Goals Against (xGA) data indicates they have conceded nearly three more goals than expected, reflecting some defensive inconsistencies.
Additionally, Lazio’s intense playing style could lead to fitness challenges, especially with their relatively thin squad. As the season progresses, injuries to key players may impact their performance, potentially affecting their chances of consistently exceeding bookmaker projections.
Conclusion: Betting on Lazio’s Continued Success
Lazio’s refreshed approach and offensive depth make them a compelling option for bettors this season. Despite potential defensive concerns, their positive ROI and capacity to outperform expectations offer significant value. Those looking to bet on Lazio may want to focus on markets that highlight their scoring potential, while also keeping an eye on underdog value in the 1X2 market.
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