How to Bet on Goals in the New Champions League Format

The 2024/25 Champions League has introduced a fresh format, breaking away from the predictability of past seasons. UEFA’s new Swiss-style model is designed to create more excitement, eliminating the rigid group stage and offering fans a wider array of matchups. But for bettors, a key question remains: will this new structure lead to more goals, particularly in the earlier stages?

Are We Seeing More Goals Already?

The early signs suggest that the new format may indeed lead to more high-scoring matches. In the first 36 matches of the 2024/25 season, 115 goals have been scored, giving us an average of 3.19 goals per game. That’s an increase from last season’s 3.08 goals per game across 96 group-stage matches.

One major change is the variety of opponents in the Swiss-style format, often pitting stronger teams against weaker ones. This has resulted in a series of high-scoring encounters, such as Bayern Munich’s 9-2 thrashing of Dinamo Zagreb and Borussia Dortmund’s 7-1 demolition of Celtic. These one-sided contests are becoming more common, and bettors should take note when backing goal-heavy matches.

Less Jeopardy, More Goals

A key feature of the new format is that it reduces the risk of early elimination. A team can secure a place in the playoffs with as few as seven points, which has led to a more attacking, risk-free style of play. Clubs are no longer as focused on avoiding defeat and instead push forward to accumulate points and improve their goal difference.

This emphasis on goal-scoring is further heightened by the importance of finishing in the top eight, which guarantees automatic progression. Goal difference could play a crucial role in these final standings, and teams are likely to continue pushing for goals even when the match result seems secure.

League Stage: A Goalscorer’s Paradise

High-scoring Champions League group stages are nothing new, but the revamped format could amplify this trend. Elite teams, like Paris Saint-Germain’s 25 goals in the 2017/18 group stage, have already shown what’s possible. Last season, Manchester City averaged three goals per game, while even lower-tier teams are finding ways to score in this wide-open structure.

With only eight matches to play, every goal counts. The focus on tiebreakers, such as most goals scored and away goals, adds even more incentive for teams to adopt attacking strategies.

Is There a Downside?

While the new format is exciting for fans and bettors, there’s a concern that the gap between top and bottom teams may widen, making some fixtures uncompetitive. However, early results show a more balanced landscape, with mid-tier teams like Aston Villa and Stade Brestois pulling off surprise victories.

Conclusion

For bettors, the new Champions League format offers fertile ground for goal-based betting. The mix of diverse opponents, a focus on goal differential, and tactical freedom are already pushing up the goal count. Keep an eye on early mismatches and take advantage of the higher-scoring trends as the tournament progresses.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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