How to Bet on Data Defying Forest and Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest have defied the odds and the underlying data as they sit 3rd in the Premier League. Bournemouth, on the other hand, have failed to make their chances pay. 

Scott Thornton looks at how punters should approach the two teams in the closing weeks of the campaign. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Forest’s Clinical Forward Line

Nottingham Forest have gone against the grain with their approach. They defend deep and are happy to allow their opponents to have the ball. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side has the lowest average possession in the Premier League with 39.5% but they are also lethal on the counter. In an era defined by aggressive pressing off the ball and patient work with it, Forest have shown that there is another way. Nuno steered the club away from relegation with this approach last season and they now have their sights set on Champions League football. 

In terms of underlying data, Forest are the biggest overperformers in the division. However, with 29 games, there is no sign of a drop off from the team that are 3rd in the table. Nuno’s side have picked up 54 points from an xPTS (expected points) tally of just 41.68. This is largely due to how clinical they are in the final third. Forest have scored 49 goals from an xG of 37.48. Only the current bottom three, Wolves and Everton have created less according to the underlying data.

Forest have some exceptional talent in their forward line and playing on the counter allows them to thrive. Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga have all been excellent with 32 direct goal contributions in the league between them. They also have the necessary pace and energy to move Forest up the pitch quickly and spring the counter but Chris Wood has been the standout attacker under Nuno. Wood seldom touches the ball in deeper areas. He is a target man for Forest to play off and he  has also proven to be deadly in the box. Chris has scored 18 league goals from an xG of just 11, making him the most clinical striker in England’s top flight. Six of those goals have been scored with his head. Forest know they can rely on their attack in the remaining weeks of the season. 

Next up for Forest in the Premier League is a clash with Manchester United at the City Ground. They beat the Red Devils 3-2 at Old Trafford earlier in the season. Nuno’s men also recorded victory when the teams met in this fixture in the 2023/24 campaign so they will be confident coming into this one. Nottingham Forest haven’t lost any of their last 10 competitive home fixtures. Over that period they have scored an average of 1.9 goals per game and conceded just 0.5. They deserve their favourites tag ahead of the clash with United. 

The Cherries’ Fail to Make Chances Pay

Bournemouth were considered relegation battlers when Andoni Iraola came to the club ahead of the 2023/24 season. The Spanish coach has transformed them into European contenders but the underlying data suggests they should be further up the table. 

The Cherries are one of the most exciting teams in the Premier League. Their brand of football aligns with most of the other top teams in the division. Iraola likes his team to press high and be brave in possession. Bournemouth have a PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 8.61, the second lowest in the league. This means they afford their opponents very little opportunity to move the ball around before winning it back. It’s an approach that has served them well.

Iraola’s team are currently five points off the top four but they have the third-highest xPTS tally in the league with 51.01. Unlike Forest, Bournemouth have been wasteful in front of goal. Only Liverpool have a greater xG than the Cherries’ 59.42. However, Bournemouth have scored just 48 goals, meaning they are the second biggest xG underperformers in the Premier League. BETSiE predicts that they will finish 9th due to their lack of killer instinct in the final third. The Cherries lost their last league game 2-1 despite seeing more of the ball and creating better opportunities. They will look to remedy that when club football returns.

Bournemouth’s next league game sees them square off against Ipswich at the Vitality Stadium. Iraola’s men won the reverse fixture 2-1 but they can secure a more emphatic win in front of their own fans. The Cherries’ ability to create chances spells trouble for an Ipswich side that have conceded the third most goals in the Premier League this season with an average of 2.14 per game. 

With just over three-quarters of the season complete, it’s interesting to see how these teams have been able to defy the underlying data. xG continues to be a useful tool but both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth highlight that it tells just one part of the story.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.