How Bettors Should Approach Midweek Premier League Fixtures

Fatigue, squad rotation, and injuries are going to have a major impact on the midweek Premier League fixtures. 

Bettors can take advantage of favourable odds on teams with busy schedules and might be able to find some surprising goal scorer value bets.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Factors To Consider in Midweek

Midweek Premier League fixtures generate a string of different factors to consider. It’s rare league fixtures come around this fast, giving managers less time to prepare, and players much less time to recover from fatigue and/or injuries. 

For clubs in European competition, it is particularly gruelling with so many of their weeks already containing matches on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. 

Previous form when the fixture list has been congested can be useful for bettors in situations like this. 

Fatigue has been a problem for Aston Villa all season, for instance. They have taken six points from a possible 24 in matches directly after Champions League fixtures. They also drew away to Ipswich and lost to Tottenham straight after their League Cup matches. Points were dropped in three out of four matches between 14th and 30th December. 

Manchester United have a better record than Villa after European commitments, taking 13 out of 24 available points. While United needed a late comeback to get a draw at Goodison Park on Saturday, the two late goals at least gives their attack a bit of confidence, and they’re facing an Ipswich defence which has conceded 17 goals in its last five league matches. 

United have scored two or fewer goals in their last eight matches across all competitions. Ipswich have the second-worst expected goals against tally in the league, though, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a high-scoring match at Old Trafford. 

Neither United nor Villa had to compete in UEFA competitions in the last two weeks, so there’s less travel involved than they had to deal with earlier in the season, but there are still enough similarities for this to inform betting decisions. 

Value on Two London Clubs

For other sides, these fixtures come at the worst time. Chelsea are on a prolonged slide since the middle of December. Arsenal, already dealing with multiple key injuries, have seen more first-team players get sidelined, leaving them very short on attacking options for their trip to the City Ground. 

Chelsea haven’t kept a Premier League clean sheet since before Christmas. Despite their abysmal results of late, Southampton had scored in five consecutive league matches prior to their 4-0 defeat at the weekend. 

Even with Chelsea’s woeful form, we can’t back Southampton to cause at upset in west London. The Blues are still fourth in expected goal difference and should get a much-needed win, but we expect Southampton to find the net against an error-ridden Chelsea back line. 

Ethan Nwaneri became the latest Arsenal forward to suffer an injury. The youngster is unlikely to be available in midweek, creating a rare chance to start for Raheem Sterling. Mikel Arteta is out of other options at this point with Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and others injured. 

Sterling’s time at the Emirates has not gone as planned. He’s only played 294 minutes in the league and his only goal came in the League Cup. Arsenal, for all their issues in the final third, have continued to create chances, with 43 shots taken over their last three Premier League outings. 

Despite a massively disappointing season, Sterling has averaged 2.8 shots per 90 in the league and took 10 shots across his three League Cup starts. There’s value on the former Manchester City man at 4.00 to score anytime – someone has to take advantage of the chances Arsenal are creating, and there aren’t many other options in the final third. 

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.