How Bettors Should Approach Arsenal Following Kai Havertz Injury

Kai Havertz will miss the rest of the season with a hamstring tear. It leaves Arsenal with three fit attackers for the next few weeks. 

It puts Arsenal in an interesting position for bettors. Let’s look at how you could approach them in upcoming matches and the outright markets.  

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Kai-nal Nail in the Coffin for Arsenal’s Title Bid?

News broke on Wednesday that Arsenal’s Kai Havertz will miss the rest of the season with a hamstring tear. 

It adds to Arsenal’s increasing injury list, especially among attacking options. Bukayo Saka will miss the next few months with a hamstring tear, Gabriel Jesus ruptured his ACL, and just last week, Gabriel Martinelli suffered an injury that will keep him out of action for a few weeks.

It comes at the worst possible time for Mikel Arteta. The squad was already short – the summer departures of Eddie Nketiah, Emile Smith Rowe, Fabio Vieira and Reiss Nelson weren’t adequately replaced – but this puts them in a trickier situation. Arsenal face Leicester City on Saturday with Leandro Trossard, loanee Raheem Sterling and 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri as their only recognised attacking options. 

Havertz’s loss will be keenly felt. The Germany international is Arsenal’s top scorer this season. He’s bagged 15 goals in 34 appearances in all competitions and has averaged 0.59 goals and assists/90 in the Premier League this campaign. It’s already his highest-scoring season since leaving Germany but it has been cut cruelly short.

It casts serious doubts on Arsenal’s push for a major trophy this campaign. The Gunners are seven points behind leaders Liverpool in the Premier League. An already implausible gap now looks unassailable. 

What Now for Arsenal?

The options are limited for Mikel Arteta in the weeks and months ahead. The Gunners will play five Premier League fixtures and both legs of their Champions League Round of 16 before the next international break in mid-March. 

Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo are in line to return after that international break. Now that the January transfer window is long closed, Arteta and Arsenal are left with what they’ve got.

The first choice front three will likely see Leandro Trossard operating centrally with Raheem Sterling from the left and Ethan Nwaneri on the right. It’s unlikely that this front three can play 90 minutes in all seven matches in the next four weeks – especially considering that loanee Sterling cannot play in the upcoming Premier League fixture against Chelsea. 

Alternative options include Kieran Tierney from the left or more advanced central positions for Mikel Merino, Declan Rice or Martin Ødegaard.

The likeliest outcome is that Mikel Arteta will lean on his side’s greatest strength: defensive solidity. Expect the Gunners to rely on the strength of their backline with the return of Oleksandr Zinchenko and Ben White. 

What Now for Bettors?

But what does this mean for bettors? Is it time to start backing under the goal line in each of Arsenal’s upcoming fixtures? Will no on the Both Teams to Score market start returning? Potentially.

That’s certainly what a lot of bettors think will happen. Under 2.5 goals in Leicester vs Arsenal opened at 2.30. It’s now down to 2.10. No on BTTS has come in from 1.80 to 1.70. Punters expect the goals to drop off and for Arsenal to lean into their defensive solidity but struggle to break their opponents down.

But now might be the best time to go against the grain. 

Nobody will be more aware of Arsenal’s potential offensive issues than Mikel Arteta. The 42-year-old loves a creative solution to this kind of problem and he’s had a 12-day break between matches to come up with something. 

His solution to the shortage of recognised attackers could be to encourage the rest of the squad to take on more attacking positions on the pitch. Don’t be surprised if full-backs and central midfielders start to operate in more offensive areas. 

That creates betting value for some of these players. Declan Rice is 2.60 on bet365 to score or assist against Leicester this weekend. Rice has scored once and assisted five from 1.44 xG and 7.44 xA. He’s got the second-highest expected assists tally in the Arsenal squad behind Bukayo Saka who hasn’t played for almost two months. 

Ethan Nwnaeri at 2.75 to score any time also looks good value. The 17-year-old is expected to play a key role in Arsenal’s attack in the coming weeks with reports that he could be deployed up front. Leicester have conceded seven goals from set pieces this season – the fifth-highest in the division. Gabriel Magalhaes may be a value pick at 6.00 to score any time. 

Arsenal will have to lean into their strengths without Havertz, Martinelli, Saka and Jesus. Expect an increasing reliance on set pieces and more attacking roles for full-backs and central midfielders. Bettors should adapt accordingly. 

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