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Horse Racing History Says.....Bet On Under 2.5 Goals In the Knockout Stage
Are there less goals at the World Cup than domestic football? What is the average number of goals scored at the World Cup? Has it been profitable to bet on under 2.5 goals at the World Cup?
In this article:
- World Cup Average Goals
- World Cup Average Goals by Nation
- World Cup Average Goals by Tournament Stage
- Betting on World Cup Goal Totals
- Betting on BTTS at the World Cup
In this analysis I have taken a look at average goal totals at the World Cup, average goal totals for each nation competing at the 2022 World Cup and average goal total by tournament stage including matches extending to extra time.
I have also taken a look at the profitability of betting on the under 2.5 goals market as well as the both teams to score (BTTS) market.
For the purposes of this analysis I have not included 3rd place playoffs with goal totals based on normal time with extra time not included. Betting results are based on betting at even stakes, meaning a single unit placed on each outcome in the market.
World Cup Average Goals Scored
Let’s begin with the basics, average goals scored at the World Cup. The table below shows the average number of goals scored at each World Cup.
| Year | FULL TIME Ave Goals |
|---|---|
| 1930 | 3.89 |
| 1934 | 3.81 |
| 1938 | 4.06 |
| 1950 | 4.00 |
| 1954 | 5.36 |
| 1958 | 3.41 |
| 1962 | 2.84 |
| 1966 | 2.71 |
| 1970 | 2.81 |
| 1974 | 2.59 |
| 1978 | 2.62 |
| 1982 | 2.69 |
| 1986 | 2.41 |
| 1990 | 2.08 |
| 1994 | 2.63 |
| 1998 | 2.65 |
| 2002 | 2.43 |
| 2006 | 2.22 |
| 2010 | 2.19 |
| 2014 | 2.54 |
| 2018 | 2.60 |
| AVERAGE | 2.74 |
While the average number of goals scored in a World Cup match is 2.74 goals, we can see that as the tournament has progressed, goals have been harder to find.
The average number of goals scored in World Cup matches from 1930 to 1982 was 3.22, while from 1986 to 2018, the average was 2.42 goals.
1990 saw the fewest average goals scored, with just 2.08 while 2010 saw just 2.19 and 2006 just 2.22. The highest goal averages came early in the tournament’s history, with 1954 seeing an average of 5.36 goals per match.
World Cup Average Total Goals by Nation
Nations competing at the 2022 World Cup have an average goals of 2.71 per match.
Of these, Saudi Arabian matches have seen the highest average with 3.13 goals per match with both Switzerland and Brazil seeing an average of over 3 goals per match, while Germany and South Korea both fall slightly short at 2.97 goals per match.
| Nation | Matches | Ave FT Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 16 | 3.13 |
| Switzerland | 37 | 3.05 |
| Brazil | 105 | 3.03 |
| Germany | 104 | 2.97 |
| South Korea | 33 | 2.97 |
| USA | 33 | 2.88 |
| Serbia | 45 | 2.82 |
| Denmark | 20 | 2.80 |
| Uruguay | 53 | 2.79 |
| Argentina | 81 | 2.78 |
| Australia | 16 | 2.75 |
| Mexico | 57 | 2.75 |
| Portugal | 28 | 2.75 |
| Belgium | 46 | 2.72 |
| France | 63 | 2.68 |
| Spain | 63 | 2.68 |
| Costa Rica | 18 | 2.61 |
| Poland | 32 | 2.56 |
| Netherlands | 48 | 2.54 |
| Tunisia | 15 | 2.53 |
| Croatia | 22 | 2.50 |
| Cameroon | 23 | 2.48 |
| Senegal | 8 | 2.38 |
| Ghana | 12 | 2.33 |
| Japan | 21 | 2.33 |
| Morocco | 16 | 2.25 |
| Iran | 15 | 2.20 |
| England | 67 | 2.15 |
| Ecuador | 10 | 2.10 |
| Canada | 3 | 1.67 |
| Wales | 5 | 1.60 |
| AVERAGE | 2.71 |
At the other end of the table, we see Wales and Canada, both seeing average short of two goals per match through their limited World Cup experience. Of experienced nations, England has the lowest goal total, with just 2.15 goals per match.
World Cup Average Goals by Tournament Stage
Let’s have a look at goal totals by tournament stage. Below we can see the average number of goals scored throughout the history of the World Cup by stage of the tournament since 1998 when the tournament was extended to 32 nations.
| Stage | Matches | Ave FT Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Group | 288 | 2.54 |
| Knockout | 90 | 2.11 |
| TOTAL | 378 | 2.44 |
We can see that as the tournament enters the knockout stage, goals diminish significantly, from 2.54 through the group stage to 2.11 in the knockout stage.
Betting on World Cup Goal Totals
In a previous article I took a look at the profitability of betting on the draw at the World Cup. In that analysis we saw that backing the draw was profitable through the knockout stage.
Given that a draw is more likely in a lower scoring match, do we see similar profitability in the knockout stage when backing under 2.5 goals?
| Stage | Matches | Over 2.5 % | Over 2.5 P/L | Under 2.5 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 288 | 48.26% | -13 | -6.62 |
| KO | 90 | 34.44% | -25.2 | +16.81 |
| TOTAL | 378 | 44.97% | -38.2 | +10.19 |
Had you bet on under 2.5 goals at even stakes in each World Cup match from 1998 to 2018, you would have earned a profit of +10.19 units from 378 matches.
But had you backed under 2.5 goals at even stakes in just the knockout stage stage you would have seen a profit of +16.81 units from 90 matches. Backing under 2.5 goals during the group stage resulted in a loss of -6.62 units from 288 matches.
The table below shows the profitability of backing under 2.5 goals at even stakes through each tournament.
| Stages | Matches | Over 2.5 % | Over 2.5 P/L | Under 2.5 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 288 | 48.26% | -13 | -6.62 |
| Rnd of 16 | 48 | 35.42% | -12.46 | +9.16 |
| Qtr Finals | 24 | 37.50% | -6.29 | +2.48 |
| Semi Finals | 12 | 25.00% | -5.23 | +4.15 |
| Final | 6 | 33.33% | -1.22 | +1.02 |
| TOTAL | 378 | 44.97% | -38.20 | +10.19 |
We can see that backing under 2.5 goals, a profit has been returned at each round of the knockout stage.
Which nations have been the most profitable to back in the under 2,5 goals market? The table below shows profitability for backing under 2.5 goals for each nation competing in the 2022 World Cup.
| Nation | Matches | Over 2.5 % | Over 2.5 P/L | Under 2.5 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 34 | 38.24% | -8.70 | +7.73 |
| Iran | 12 | 25.00% | -5.99 | +6.4 |
| France | 32 | 37.50% | -7.76 | +5.1 |
| England | 27 | 37.04% | -6.68 | +4.97 |
| South Korea | 22 | 36.36% | -4.83 | +4.78 |
| Switzerland | 15 | 33.33% | -4.04 | +3.34 |
| Argentina | 29 | 44.83% | -3.83 | +1.97 |
| Senegal | 8 | 37.50% | -0.90 | +1.87 |
| Tunisia | 12 | 41.67% | -2.25 | +1.81 |
| USA | 19 | 42.11% | -2.92 | +1.42 |
| Cameroon | 12 | 41.67% | -2.31 | +0.98 |
| Serbia | 13 | 46.15% | -0.75 | +0.48 |
| Costa Rica | 14 | 42.86% | -1.87 | +0.47 |
| Portugal | 20 | 45.00% | -1.84 | +0.2 |
| Ghana | 12 | 41.67% | -3.06 | -0.02 |
| Ecuador | 10 | 50.00% | -0.22 | -0.02 |
| Belgium | 18 | 44.44% | -3.42 | -0.06 |
| Denmark | 16 | 43.75% | -1.84 | -0.42 |
| Spain | 26 | 50.00% | -1.16 | -0.75 |
| Japan | 21 | 47.62% | -0.27 | -0.82 |
| Poland | 9 | 55.56% | +1.51 | -1.5 |
| Mexico | 24 | 50.00% | -0.09 | -1.87 |
| Croatia | 22 | 50.00% | +0.96 | -2.34 |
| Uruguay | 18 | 50.00% | +2.81 | -2.72 |
| Netherlands | 23 | 52.17% | +1.13 | -2.88 |
| Morocco | 6 | 66.67% | +1.09 | -2.89 |
| Saudi Arabia | 12 | 66.67% | +3.37 | -3.7 |
| Australia | 13 | 61.54% | +1.69 | -3.94 |
| Brazil | 35 | 60.00% | +4.89 | -7.19 |
| TOTAL | 534 | 45.69% | -47.28 | 10.4 |
Germany has been the best nation to back for under 2.5 goals since 1998. If you had backed under 2.5 goals in each Germany match through that time, you would have earned a profit of +7.73 units from 34 matches played.
Brazil has been the most profitable nation to back for over 2.5 goals since 1998. If you backed over 2.5 goals in Brazil match from 1998, you would have seen a profit of +4.89 units from 35 matches played.
Betting on BTTS at the World Cup
In general, the higher the expected goal total for a football match, the greater the likelihood of both teams scoring. So if we see that it has been profitable to bet on under 2.5 goals through the group stage, we can also expect it to be profitable to bet against both teams scoring (BTTS – No).
Below we can see the profitability of backing both teams to score through each stage of the World Cup from 1998 to 2018.
| Stage | Matches | BTTS – Yes % | BTTS – Yes P/L | BTTS – No P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 288 | 47.22% | -18.04 | -5.96 |
| Rnd of 16 | 48 | 50.00% | +0.515 | -2.28 |
| Qtr Finals | 24 | 37.50% | -6.765 | +5.385 |
| Semi Finals | 12 | 41.67% | -2.1 | +2.475 |
| Final | 6 | 33.33% | -2.095 | +2.08 |
| TOTAL | 378 | 46.56% | -28.485 | +1.705 |
We can see that backing BTTS – No was not profitable through the group stage.
However backing BTTS – No was profitable through the knockout stage. But while backing under 2.5 goals has been profitable through each round of the knockout stage, backing BTTS – No was profitable from the quarter finals onward with matches played in the Round of 16 resulting in a loss for BTTS – No.
Conclusion: Expect Lower Than Expected Goal Totals In the Knockout Stage
While backing under 2.5 goals throughout the group stage has not returned a profit, we have seen that backing under 2.5 goals through the knockout stage returned a profit and did so in each round of the knockout stage. We saw similar results when backing BTTS – No.
Major international football tournaments have a reputation for low goal totals with nations taking a conservative approach especially through the knockout stage. While goal totals have been low in recent tournaments, goal totals in the knockout stages have been lower than those expected by bookmakers.
While we do not suggest blindly backing under 2.5 goals and BTTS – No in the knockout stage of this year’s World Cup, we recommend taking the historical performance of such markets into account.
