Four Horse Race to Top Score the Champions League

We’ve reached the business end of the Champions League. It’s time for the competition’s most lethal attackers to earn their money and three are also embroiled in a heated race to be the top scorer. 

Scott Thornton has crunched the numbers behind Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Harry Kane and Ousmane Dembele ahead of the quarter-final second legs. Serhou Guirassy is level with Kane on 10 goals but Dortmund’s 4-0 first-leg defeat against Barcelona means he is out of the running.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

A Four Horse Race 

Raphinha

Raphinha initially struggled when making the switch from Leeds to Barcelona back in the summer of 2022. Xavi was in charge of the Blaugrana back then and it wasn’t until Hansi Flick came in that we started to see the best of Raphinha. He claims the German has changed the mentality and the winger has certainly benefited from that change.

The Brazilian brings flair in abundance but he has also been ruthless in front of goal, especially in the Champions League. He has scored 12 and assisted a further seven in Europe this season. Raphinha has lined up superbly with the likes of Lewandowski and Yamal, which is undoubtedly the most fearsome front three in world football. The trio have helped Barcelona net an average of 3.27 goals per game in this competition, 0.72 more than any other side. 

Raphinha currently leads the way in top scorer charts. He has been incisive on the break for Barcelona. The willingness of teams to attack in the Champions League has enabled the former Premier League winger to have a much better scoring rate than he does in La Liga, where he operates in a more creative role. The wide man certainly has the cutting edge to retain his place at the top, but he has clinical forwards hot on his heels.

Robert Lewandowski

Robert Lewandowski also enjoying his best-ever season in a Barcelona shirt. He faced criticism for his displays last season but reuniting with Flick in Catalonia has proven productive. The pair had previously worked together at Bayern Munich, where Robert broke the Bundesliga scoring record. 

Lewandowski is arguably the value pick to be the top scorer of the Champions League. He sit just one goal behind Raphinha in the race. The Polish striker has drastically outscored his teammate in the Spanish top flight and is proving he can come up trumps in the big European games. Robert netted two goals in the 4-0 win over Dortmund in the first leg and is even being talked about as a potential Ballon d’Or contender. 

Over the past 12 months, Lewandowski has scored an average of 0.84 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes played, meaning he ranks in the top 1% compared with all forwards across Europe’s top five leagues. He has the highest xG in La Liga this season with 26.27, 3.28 more than Kylian Mbappe, highlighting his ability to be in the right place at the right time. 

A legendary forward like Lewandowski has a single-mindedness in front of goal that very few possess. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he grabbed five more goals in the Champions League as Barcelona eye the ultimate prize. 

Harry Kane

Harry Kane made the move to Germany in pursuit of silverware. He is poised to pick up the first trophy of his career with Bayern Munich leading the way in the Bundesliga. However, for the club, Kane’s signing was all about getting them over the line in the Champions League. Can the Englishman deliver in the matches to come?

Unlike the others on this list, Kane’s team find themselves behind after their quarter-final first leg. Bayern need to overcome that 2-1 deficit if Harry is to have any hope of being crowned the competition’s top scorer. They take on an Inter side that has conceded just 0.27 goals per game in the Champions League thus far, so Kane is unlikely to fill his boots at the San Siro even if the Bavarians get the job done. 

As you’d expect, Kane’s numbers for Bayern are extraordinary. He netted 36 goals in the league last season as his team finished second. Harry was also the joint top scorer in the Champions League with eight. He has already eclipsed that tally this season but will need at least 13 if he is to claim the award outright. The Englishman currently has 10 goals, so it’s not out of the question that he will move ahead of the Barcelona pairing. However, Bayern’s predicament means it’s unlikely. 

Ousmane Dembele

PSG have been outstanding in the knockout stages of the Champions League. They were at risk of exiting in the league phase at one point but are now amongst the favourites to win the competition. BETSiE projects they are the most likely team to win the trophy despite losing Mbappe last summer.

Ousmane Dembele has rose to the occasion since Mbappe’s departure. He has played on both flanks and down the middle for PSG this season. The Frenchman has added a hatful of goals to his game. He has already exceeded the 20-goal mark in Ligue 1 and is in with an outside chance of top-scoring the Champions League. 

Dembele has seven goals in Europe so far this season, meaning he is five behind the leading top scorer. Ousmane would need PSG to go all the way to the final and play a starring role in each of their matches but he is certainly capable of doing so. Dembele has scored 0.95 non-penalty goals per 90 in the past year, eclipsing Lewandowski’s numbers.

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