First Ever Champions League Play-Offs Offer Intriguing Betting Opportunities

After 144 games and 470 goals in the league phase, the Champions League is gearing up for its first-ever play-offs. The two-legged knockout ties will determine which teams join those who finished in the top eight positions in the first phase. 

Our European football expert Daniele Fisichella has analysed teams’ form and past trends to identify some betting strategies for next week’s ties. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Will The Goals Fest Continue?

The new league format has certainly delivered, adding more jeopardy for clubs heading into the last group match, alongside an increase in goals. In fact, there has been an average of 3.27 goals per match in the league phase, which is above the 3.08 average from last season’s group stage.

Last season, for example, saw the average number of goals per game drop to 2.72 in the knockout stage, the third-lowest tally in the past eight seasons. 

It might be fair to assume matches could get tighter as stakes rise, particularly in first legs.

However, the elimination of the away goal rule has made knockout ties, especially first legs that used to be cagey affairs, much more open, raising the bar for goals. 

Knockout round play-offs were first introduced in the Europa League and the Conference League in the 2021/2022 season. Since then, 26 out of 48 first-leg play-offs games have seen at least three goals, and both teams scored in 27 of those matches. The average goals per game, across both competitions, was 2.72, in line with last season’s Champions League knockout stages tally.

However, there will surely be ties where the over 2.5 goals line might not be breached, offering potential value for bettors. 

In fact, a 1-0 victory, whether at home or away, was the most common result in the Champions League group phase, occurring in 26 games (18.06%). Furthermore, 95 out of 144 games played in the league phase saw no goals in the opening 15 minutes, suggesting betting on low-scoring first halves might also be a smart strategy.

Back Bayern To Get The Job Done

Bayern are the heaviest favourites across the play-off first legs, with average odds for their victory set at 1.38. 

BETSiE projects Celtic have a 4.3% chance of qualifying, the lowest percentage among all the teams taking part in these play-offs. Our in-house projection tool also suggests the goal difference will be 1.48 in favour of the Germans, making backing Vincent Kompany’s side with a -1.25 Asian Handicap a smart move.

In the Club Brugge vs Atalanta clash, their first ever meeting, the goal line was arguably set too high at over 2.75. 

While La Dea is the second highest-scoring away team in the Champions League, with an average of 3.25 goals in their away matches, Brugge at home are a tough opponent. Since the 2022/23 season, the Belgians have suffered just eight home defeats in all competitions. 

Last campaign, at the Jan Breydel Stadium, they drew 1-1 with Fiorentina in the Conference League and shared the spoils (0-0) with Juventus in this year’s league phase. 

The Blauw-Zwart  also average 1.21 xG per game in the Champions League, with only seven other teams—none of which qualified for the group stage—recording a worse figure. 

BETSiE projects a goal total of 2.71, the lowest among all first-leg ties, suggesting that backing an under 2.75 goals Asian Line might be wise.

Finally, according to our in-house tool, there is a 23.3% chance that Monaco vs Benfica will end in a draw, the second highest percentage behind Feyenoord vs AC Milan (24.7%) among all first-leg ties. 

The Portuguese side won the same fixture 3-2 on 27 November 2024. The odds for a victory on that day were as high as those now, so backing them with a positive Asian Handicap, +0.25, or a double chance (X2) and over 1.5 goals in the match could prove to be a smart approach. 

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.