Fiorentina’s Purple Patch Makes Kean A Good Goalscorer Bet

Following their victory over Panathinaikos last month, Fiorentina have not only secured their place in the Conference League quarter-finals, but have also achieved a remarkable feat.

They have become the highest-scoring team from the top five European leagues in continental competitions over the past three seasons. In Serie A La Viola still has an outside chance to make it into the top four, helped by the goals of its rejuvenated centre-forward, Moise Kean. 

Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella explains why Fiorentina and the Italian striker represent a good bet on the goalscorer market. 

Europe’s Goal Machine is set for another final

With an impressive tally of 84 goals, Fiorentina have outscored even the likes of Real Madrid (82), Manchester City (81), and Bayern Munich (71) in European competitions. 

After finishing third in the Conference League group stage, Raffaele Palladino’s side enter the quarter-finals of the competition against Slovenian outfit Celje as heavy favourites. Our in-house tool, BETSiE, assigns them a 66.5% chance of victory in the first leg, with a projected goals total of 2.13 – the highest among the eight teams competing in this round. 

Fiorentina, who reached but lost the last two finals of the tournament, are poised for another strong run, continuing the tradition of Italian clubs excelling since the competition’s inception with Roma’s triumph in the inaugural final in 2022.

According to BETSiE, Fiorentina have a 62.9% probability of playing in the final on 28 May 2025 at the Wrocław Stadium, potentially facing Chelsea. The Blues have been the main favourites to win the competition since it began, and they sit on the opposite side of the draw from Fiorentina, setting the stage for another potential Anglo-Italian final. 

Historically, the Conference League has seen higher-valued clubs progress far. Last season, Fiorentina and Aston Villa, ranked fourth and first in club value respectively, reached the semi-finals. The previous year, high-valued West Ham United and Fiorentina met in Prague’s final. In the tournament’s first season, Roma and Feyenoord, third and fifth in valuation, contested in Tirana. 

Chelsea’s squad valuation of €922.20 million accounts for over 41% of the competition’s total value, underscoring their status as favourites. Although Fiorentina’s valuation of €281 million is significantly less than Chelsea’s, it ranks them as the second wealthiest club in the Conference League.

The Capocannoniere race is on

Fiorentina’s standout performer this season has been their centre-forward, 25-year-old Moise Kean. 

The Italian international made the switch from Juventus in a €13m deal last summer, with just a year remaining on his contract in Turin. 

Kean has had a great impact, netting 22 goals, in all competitions, this season—the same tally he managed in 123 appearances for the Old Lady. Additionally, he has matched his assist total from his time at Juventus, having set up three goals for the Tuscans already. Kean is currently in the thick of the Serie A’s Capocannoniere race, trailing Mateo Retegui of Atalanta by five goals, with the latter scoring 22 to Kean’s 17. 

However, both players are neck and neck in terms of expected goals (xG), with Kean registering 14.06 and the Atalanta striker slightly ahead at 14.40. This means Retegui has outperformed his xG by 7.60—an impressive feat and the highest in Italy’s top flight.

Following his  goal against AC Milan, Kean became the first Fiorentina player to notch more than 21 goals in a single season since Alberto Gilardino’s 25-goal haul in the 2008/09 campaign. 

With La Viola currently in better form than Atalanta, Kean could close the gap on Retegui (pictured below). Atalanta have recently struggled, losing their last three matches without scoring—a drought not seen in a decade—while averaging just 0.88 xG per game. 

Both teams face similarly challenging opponents in their next four games, with opponent average points per game standing at 1.15 for Atalanta and 1.20 for Fiorentina, presenting Kean with a good opportunity to catch up. 

Both teams are projected to score almost the same amount of goals till the end of the season (12), therefore the former Everton striker could be a smart bet for Serie A top goalscorer, currently priced at 11.00.

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